Morning Brief

Futures point lower as investors weigh cautious guidance from Walmart and rising geopolitical risk tied to Iran. Dow futures fall about 166 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also in the red. Markets are watching consumer data and oil prices for the next signal.

Walmart modestly beat Q4 expectations, with revenue up 5.6% to $190.7B. But management guided fiscal 2027 net sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5%, citing an unstable macro backdrop and softer sentiment. The retailer now reports as a trillion-dollar company and faces new comparisons with Amazon, whose annual sales have surpassed Walmart’s.

Strategists call this a “weird market,” with money rotating out of tech into smaller sectors like energy and staples. Tech valuations have reset, but earnings growth remains strongest there. Oil near $60 limits consumer pressure for now, even as tensions with Iran lift uncertainty.

Trending Tickers: Deere lifts profit outlook on farm recovery; Occidental Petroleum beats on sales and capital expenditures; Etsy jumps after selling Depop to eBay for $1.2B.

Takeaways:

Futures fall on cautious guidance and Iran headlines

Walmart guides conservatively despite Q4 beat

Amazon sales now exceed Walmart annually

Sector rotation drives dispersion across the market

Oil remains contained, limiting inflation risk

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Stocks are rebounding after another AI-driven sell-off, with housing starts and durable goods topping estimates despite December declines. Still, US equities are off to their worst relative start since 1995, as investors await the GDP report and reassess positioning.

The S&P 500’s premium has widened to roughly 40% over global peers, prompting debate over allocations. International markets are up about 8% year to date, while the US is flat, driven mainly by multiple expansion rather than earnings.

Japan will deploy $36B into US energy and critical minerals, part of a broader $550B framework, backing a major Ohio gas project tied to data center demand.

Trending: Moderna jumps on FDA reversal of flu review; New York Times gains after Berkshire stake; Palo Alto Networks falls on lowered profit outlook.

Takeaways:

US underperforms global markets on valuation gap

International gains driven by multiples, not earnings

Japan invests $36B into US energy build-out

AI volatility pressures software and cybersecurity

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Futures are lower after the holiday break, with Nasdaq 100 futures off about 0.7% as investors digest last week’s worst stretch since November. The AI transition remains the central driver, with traders watching earnings commentary and capital expenditures discipline for clarity.

Software stocks have reset sharply, with Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), and Palantir (PLTR) pulling back from elevated multiples. Investors are recalibrating around return on AI spend and which companies can embed AI into core revenue streams rather than chase hype.

Banking executives argue that AI will enhance productivity rather than replace entire sectors, but questions remain about the speed of disruption and regulatory lag. In IPOs, discipline is returning, with valuations and pricing scrutiny shaping 2026’s expected rebound.

Trending tickers: Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) reopens Paramount talks, Tripadvisor (TRIP) faces activist pressure, and Masimo (MASI) surges on a Danaher deal.

Takeaways:

• Nasdaq futures lead declines as AI volatility continues
• Software multiples compress amid ROI scrutiny
• AI seen as a productivity boost, not a complete replacement
• IPO market favors pricing discipline over momentum
• M&A and activism drive single-stock moves

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US stocks are mixed premarket after a solid jobs report and a stronger earnings season. Investors are weighing resilient growth against fewer Fed rate cuts. Value is outperforming growth early in the year as traders reassess positioning.

Software names like Salesforce (CRM), Workday (WDAY), and ServiceNow (NOW) are sliding, even as some argue the sell-off looks overdone. Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) remains central to the AI trade, with expectations building into earnings.

Consumer staples are rotating higher, but McDonald's (MCD) is leaning on value menus to drive traffic while watching GLP-1 risk. In crypto, Robinhood (HOOD) and bitcoin face a catalyst vacuum amid investor debate over regulation and tokenization.

Trending Tickers: AB InBev (BUD) on steady profit growth; McDonald's (MCD) on value momentum; Nvidia (NVDA) into earnings.

Takeaways:

Retail is buying beaten-down software, institutions stay selective

Value and cyclicals are leading as growth lags

AI leaders remain core despite volatility

McDonald's sees value as a defense against consumer pressure

Bitcoin lacks a clear near-term catalyst

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Stock futures are higher after January payrolls rose 130,000 versus 65,000 expected, with unemployment ticking down to 4.3%. Dow futures are up 250 points as investors digest stronger labor data and push Fed rate cut odds to July. The key question now: does a resilient economy delay easing?

AI remains the market’s action verb. Investors are rotating within tech and services, reassessing middleman risk while favoring companies with strong balance sheets and positive momentum. Speculative names look mispriced after aggressive bids.

M&A and deregulation optimism could fuel a second-half melt-up. Credit markets remain open, and strategists see broader participation beyond last year’s narrow leadership.

Trending tickers: Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) hovers near competing bids from Paramount and Netflix; Kraft Heinz (KHC) drops after pausing its planned split; Moderna (MRNA) slides after the FDA declines to review its flu vaccine filing; Robinhood (HOOD) slips as crypto revenue misses despite broader product expansion.

Takeaways:

Strong jobs data lifts futures, delays rate cut expectations

AI-driven rotation favors quality over speculation

Broader market leadership emerging in 2026

M&A and deregulation seen as second-half catalysts

Earnings and deal headlines driving single-stock volatility

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US futures are mixed near record levels as investors weigh soft December retail sales against resilient earnings and rotation away from software. Attention turns to labor and inflation data for clarity on rates and growth.

Rotation is doing the work. Energy and industrials lead as AI demand boosts power and infrastructure, while uncertainty around long-term earnings keeps software volatile. Investors want a clearer terminal value before re-rating AI platforms.

The consumer picture is uneven. Retail sales were flat in December, with broad category weakness, reinforcing a K-shaped split in which higher-income spending holds up while value-seeking intensifies elsewhere.

Trending tickers: Spotify surged on stronger user growth; Paramount fell amid deal uncertainty; Harley‑Davidson slid after a shipment miss.

Takeaways:
• Rotation supports the index without a tech surge
• Software needs earnings visibility to stabilize
• Retail data signals consumer strain
• Luxury demand outpaces mass market
• Selectivity matters in AI trades

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US futures are lower after Friday’s rebound, with tech struggling to regain its footing following last week’s sharp software sell-off. Investors are bracing for a rescheduled jobs report on Wednesday and CPI on Friday, both key tests for rate expectations and market direction.

Technically, the S&P 500 bounced off its 100-day moving average but remains stuck below the 7,000 level. A sustained breakout likely depends on software stabilizing after extreme oversold conditions.

Strategists are also pushing back on blind rotation away from AI. The sell-off has been indiscriminate, but balance sheet strength and the speed of monetization matter more than chasing anti-AI trades. Volatility is creating opportunity, but selectivity is critical.

Takeaways:
• Futures point to a cautious open
• Jobs and CPI data dominate the week
• Tech leadership remains unresolved
• AI rotation lacks a clear fundamental anchor

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US futures are modestly higher after a bruising week that saw nearly $1T wiped from software as AI disruption fears accelerated rotation. Investors are parsing hyperscaler spending, crypto volatility, and whether macro breadth can offset tech pressure.

Software ETFs posted their worst week since 2008 as concerns spread beyond SaaS to mega caps like Amazon (AMZN), which flagged $200B in 2026 AI capital expenditures even as AWS growth improved. The debate is shifting from growth to ROI as capital intensity rises.

Elsewhere, bitcoin steadied below $70K while the dollar slid roughly 9% over the past year, lifting non-US assets. Markets are watching Fed signals, PMI momentum, and whether rotation sticks.

Trending tickers: Amazon (AMZN) on capital expenditures shock; Strategy (MSTR) tracking bitcoin swings; Reddit (RDDT) jumping on earnings and buyback.

Takeaways:

AI fears are forcing valuation resets across software.

Hyperscaler capital expenditures keep rising, delaying ROI clarity.

Rotation favors energy, staples, and select non-US assets.

Crypto remains volatile, not a reliable hedge right now.

Dollar weakness reflects shifting risk perceptions.

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US futures point lower, led by tech, after Alphabet warned of a sharp ramp in AI spending. Investors are weighing whether massive capital expenditures signal durable growth or margin pressure, with Amazon earnings next as the key test.

Alphabet (GOOGL) plans up to $185B in 2026 capital expenditures, nearly double last year and far above expectations, triggering a sell-off despite accelerating cloud and search growth. The message is demanding strength but near-term cash burn, reviving questions around AI returns. Amazon (AMZN) now carries the baton after the bell.

Risk appetite also cracked elsewhere. Bitcoin fell below $70,000, down 44% from its peak, dragging crypto equities like Strategy (MSTR). Commodities weakened as silver plunged and energy names slipped, with ConocoPhillips (COP) cutting output plans. Estée Lauder (EL) slid on a cautious outlook, testing confidence in its turnaround.

Trending tickers: Strategy (MSTR) as bitcoin breaks support, Estée Lauder (EL) on soft guidance, and ConocoPhillips (COP) amid oil price pressure.

Takeaways:

Alphabet’s AI capital expenditures reset is the day’s main market driver

Amazon results will frame AI spending tolerance

Crypto weakness is pressuring levered proxies

Rotation into cyclicals remains intact but uneven

Tech execution, not vision, decides the next leg

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U.S. stock futures are mixed after a sharp software-driven selloff, as renewed concern over AI disruption weighs on sentiment. Investors are watching big tech earnings after the close and parsing whether the AI trade is recalibrating rather than breaking. Crypto weakness and cautious forward guidance are adding to the defensive tone.

Software stocks slid as fears grew that generative AI could displace enterprise tools, despite pushback from Nvidia leadership. The move reflects valuation sensitivity more than a single catalyst, with investors reassessing near-term monetization timelines across AI-linked names.

Earnings are driving dispersion. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) topped Q4 estimates but guided conservatively, highlighting heavy AI investment costs and limited China visibility. In contrast, Eli Lilly (LLY) surged after projecting up to 27% sales growth on obesity drugs, while Uber (UBER) and Chipotle (CMG) flagged softer near-term trends.

Trending tickers: AMD under pressure on guidance, LLY jumps on blockbuster demand, CMG slides as comps stall.

Takeaways:

AI enthusiasm is colliding with valuation discipline.

Earnings guidance matters more than beats.

Drugmakers are outperforming tech on growth visibility.

Market leadership is broadening beyond mega-cap software.

Volatility likely persists through peak earnings.

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