Morning Brief

US stocks open higher as the AI trade reignites on record results from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), which posted record quarterly profit and raised its 2025 outlook for the second time this year. The chipmaker expects mid-30% revenue growth next year and plans to expand production in Arizona with a new $40B investment. The news lifted Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), and ASML (ASML) stock, while analysts warned the AI boom could be entering bubble territory. Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey cited AI as the top investor risk for the first time. Oil prices climbed after President Trump said India had agreed to halt imports of Russian crude oil, although New Delhi had not confirmed the claim. United Airlines (UAL) stock dipped after mixed results but rose in early trading on a stronger-than-expected holiday forecast. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for one more 25 bp rate cut this month but urged caution afterward. Meanwhile, newly appointed Governor Steven Myron pushed for a deeper 50 bp cut, underscoring growing divisions within the central bank.

Takeaways:

Taiwan Semiconductor lifts AI trade with blowout results and raised outlook

Fed split: Waller calls for caution, Myron pushes for deeper cut

United Airlines forecasts strong Q4 despite mixed Q3 results

Oil rises on Trump’s claim India will stop Russian imports

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US stocks rebound as investors digest another wave of strong bank earnings and rising geopolitical tension. Gold hits a new record above $4,200 an ounce, extending its 60% year-to-date surge amid fears over trade escalation and ongoing Fed easing. Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) topped expectations, boosted by a 40%+ jump in investment banking fees and robust trading revenue. Dutch chipmaker ASML (ASML) rallied after reporting $6.3B in quarterly bookings, fueled by AI infrastructure demand, even as it warned that US export restrictions to China could limit sales. Meanwhile, President Trump threatened to ban imports of Chinese cooking oil in retaliation for Beijing halting US soybean purchases, adding fresh uncertainty to trade talks ahead of a potential meeting with Xi Jinping. On the commodities front, silver soared alongside gold, now up 75% year-to-date, while analysts at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America forecast gold could hit $10,000 by 2030.

Takeaways:

Bank of America and Morgan Stanley beat estimates as dealmaking rebounds

Gold surges past $4,200; analysts see $5,000—$10,000 potential long term

Trump threatens Chinese cooking oil embargo amid worsening trade rift

ASML beats earnings on AI demand but warns of China sales risk

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US stocks fall as tensions with China escalate after Beijing sanctioned the US subsidiaries of a major South Korean shipping company in retaliation for new American port fees. Investors are flocking to Treasuries while crypto tumbles, with traders bracing for more trade volatility heading into November. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all reported strong Q3 results, with JPMorgan posting record market revenue and BlackRock (BLK) seeing $205B in quarterly net inflows. Jamie Dimon called the US economy “resilient” but warned of rising risks from tariffs and geopolitics. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat earnings estimates and raised its full-year guidance while announcing plans to spin off its orthopedics division within two years to streamline operations. Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL) will deploy 50,000 AMD (AMD) GPUs as AI chip demand accelerates, and General Motors (GM) will take a $1.6B charge as EV subsidies expire. Finally, Oura CEO Tom Hale joined Yahoo Finance to discuss the company’s new $900M Series E round valuing the wearable tech firm at $11B and its push into AI-driven health insights.

Takeaways:

China sanctions US subsidiaries of South Korean shipper; trade tensions reignite

JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi, and Wells Fargo all post strong Q3 earnings

Johnson & Johnson to spin off orthopedics unit within 24 months

Oracle to deploy 50K AMD GPUs; GM takes $1.6B EV charge

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US stocks rally as President Trump strikes a conciliatory tone toward China after threatening new tariffs last week. Futures and European markets surged after Trump said “all will be fine” between Washington and Beijing, reassuring investors following a $2 trillion market sell-off on Friday. Chip and rare-earth stocks led gains as traders bet on a trade deescalation. Broadcom (AVGO) jumped after announcing a multiyear AI chip partnership with OpenAI, adding 10 gigawatts of computing capacity beginning in 2026. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) launched a $10B initiative to invest in critical US industries like energy, aerospace, and defense, ahead of Tuesday’s big-bank earnings kickoff that also includes Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Goldman Sachs (GS). Rare-earth miner MP Materials (MP) and fuel-cell firm Bloom Energy (BE) both rallied on new deals tied to AI infrastructure, while Fastenal (FAST) fell on weak construction activity.

Takeaways:

Trump eases tone on China; markets rebound after $2T sell-off

Broadcom surges on new multiyear AI chip deal with OpenAI

JPMorgan launches $10B investment push into US industrial sectors

MP Materials and Bloom Energy rise on trade and AI tailwinds

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US stocks edge higher as the “buy-everything” rally stretches into another session. Gold hits fresh records, crypto surges, and the dollar posts its best week of the year as investors juggle the so-called debasement trade narrative. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is recalling furloughed workers to release September CPI data despite the government shutdown, after the White House ordered the report’s completion to calculate next year’s Social Security cost-of-living adjustment. Levi Strauss (LEVI) tumbled 11% after warning of a soft holiday quarter even as profits beat expectations and full-year guidance was raised. Qualcomm (QCOM) fell after China opened an antitrust probe into its AutoTalks acquisition, while Applied Digital (APLD) jumped on stronger-than-expected revenue tied to AI data center builds for CoreWeave. Rare earth stocks rallied after the Trump administration took a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals (TMQ) to secure US access to critical minerals.

Takeaways:

Stocks extend “buy-everything” rally as gold, crypto, and dollar surge

BLS recalls workers to finish CPI report amid government shutdown

Levi’s beats but warns of tariff headwinds and weak Q4 outlook

Qualcomm faces China antitrust probe; rare earths rally on US investment

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US stocks hold near record highs after the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) both closed at all-time highs. Gold remains near $4,000 an ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank buying, even as Fed minutes showed policymakers divided on the pace of rate cuts. Chair Jerome Powell delivers remarks today at a community banking conference but is not expected to comment on monetary policy. Delta Air Lines (DAL) jumped after a strong Q3 earnings beat, reporting $15.2B in revenue and raising guidance for the rest of the year. CEO Ed Bastian said Delta could see its most profitable Q4 ever, fueled by strength in premium and business travel. PepsiCo (PEP) also topped estimates, with beverage sales offsetting weaker snacks as activist investor Elliott Management pushes for a portfolio review. Intel (INTC) rose on new chip rollout plans, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported a 30% quarterly sales jump, and Nvidia (NVDA) got a fresh price target hike to $300 from Cantor Fitzgerald.

Takeaways:

Delta beats big and raises guidance; premium and business travel soar

PepsiCo tops estimates as beverage strength offsets snack weakness

Gold holds near $4,000; Fed minutes show divided policymakers

Intel, TSMC, and Nvidia rise on new AI chip optimism

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US stocks rebound after a rare pullback, with futures pointing higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes. Gold surges past $4,000 an ounce for the first time as billionaire investor Ray Dalio calls it a stronger haven than the dollar, citing echoes of the 1970s inflation era. Nvidia (NVDA) reportedly invests up to $2B in Elon Musk’s xAI as the startup raises $20B to fund its Colossus 2 supercomputer project. The move follows OpenAI’s blockbuster AMD (⁠AMD⁠) deal, intensifying the AI arms race. Meanwhile, investors await Fed commentary for clues on future rate cuts amid a data vacuum caused by the government shutdown. In trending tickers, Verizon (VZ) partners with AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) to launch satellite-to-phone service, Penguin Solutions (AVCTQ) sinks on weak sales guidance, and Jefferies (JEF) slides after revealing $161M exposure to bankrupt auto supplier First Brands Group.

Takeaways:

Gold tops $4,000 as investors seek safety from inflation and a weak dollar

Nvidia to invest up to $2B in Elon Musk’s xAI, fueling AI competition

Fed Minutes expected to show division on pace of rate cuts amid shutdown

Verizon expands space partnership, Jefferies discloses bankruptcy exposure

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US stocks rise to new records as OpenAI and AMD (AMD) announce a massive AI computing partnership that includes OpenAI taking a 10% stake in the chipmaker. The deal cements AMD’s position as Nvidia’s (NVDA) top challenger in the race for AI dominance, with OpenAI agreeing to purchase six gigawatts of AMD’s Instinct GPUs over several years. Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) will acquire Comerica (CMA) in an all-stock deal valued at $10.9 billion, creating the nation’s ninth-largest bank by assets. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) topped $125,000 and gold surged to record highs as investors hedge against the ongoing US government shutdown. In corporate shakeups, Verizon (VZ) named former PayPal CEO Dan Schulman as its new chief executive, replacing Hans Vestberg. Abroad, France’s prime minister abruptly resigned after less than a month on the job, while Japan prepares to swear in its first female prime minister, sparking a 4.7% surge in the Nikkei.

Takeaways:

OpenAI buys 10% of AMD in landmark AI chip partnership

Fifth Third to acquire Comerica in $10.9B regional bank merger

Gold and bitcoin rally to all-time highs amid US shutdown

Verizon names Dan Schulman CEO; Japan elects first female prime minister

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US stocks edge higher as Wall Street extends its record run despite the government shutdown entering day three. Economic data remains frozen, with the September jobs report delayed, but investors continue to ride the AI wave as Nvidia (NVDA) and OpenAI unveil new partnerships. President Trump is reportedly preparing a $10B bailout package for US farmers hit by China tariffs, with soybean producers set to benefit most. Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) and Comerica (CMA) shares remain in focus after their $10.9B merger announcement, while Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and gold hover near record highs. In trending tickers, Applied Materials (AMAT) slides after a $600M revenue hit tied to China export rules, Chevron (CVX) investigates a refinery fire in Los Angeles, and Cracker Barrel (CBRL) falls after reversing its controversial logo redesign following backlash from President Trump.

Takeaways:

Government shutdown extends into day three; September jobs data delayed

Nvidia and OpenAI strike new partnerships, fueling AI momentum

Trump proposes $10B farmer bailout amid ongoing China tariffs

Applied Materials, Chevron, and Cracker Barrel move on headlines

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Tech stocks powered futures higher after OpenAI’s valuation jumped to $500B in a secondary share sale, igniting fresh momentum in AI names. Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), Intel (INTC), and Qualcomm (QCOM) all rallied, while Samsung and SK Hynix surged in Asia on news that they signed supply deals with OpenAI. The US government shutdown entered its second day with no resolution as President Trump threatened permanent federal worker layoffs, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant warned of growth risks. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) agreed to buy Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY) petrochemical business for $9.7B, deepening his bet on the energy giant. Tesla (TSLA) topped delivery estimates at 497,000, easing concerns about slowing sales. In trending tickers, REIT Fermi ([FERMI]) surged 55% in its IPO, and credit reporting firms Equifax (EFX) and TransUnion (TRU) tumbled after FICO (FICO) launched a new direct-to-lender scoring model.

Takeaways:

OpenAI hits $500B valuation, fueling global AI chip rally

US shutdown enters day two; Trump threatens mass federal layoffs

Buffett’s Berkshire buys OXY petrochemical unit for $9.7B

Tesla beats Q3 deliveries; Fermi IPO surges, Equifax/TransUnion sink on FICO move

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