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For weeks, President Trump has insisted that Washington and Tehran are on the verge of a deal. But events over the last 24 hours tell a different story. Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel. Israel struck targets inside Iran. The Houthis launched a missile from Yemen. And once again, the region finds itself balancing between diplomacy and escalation.

In this episode, host Aviva Klompas is joined by Andrew Fox, a former British Army major and conflict researcher, to unpack the latest escalation and the strategic questions now facing Israel, Iran, and the United States.

They discuss Iran's attempt to link the Hezbollah front in Lebanon to the broader confrontation with Israel, whether the latest exchange is likely to remain limited or expand into something larger, and what President Trump's diplomacy reveals about the current state of U.S.-Israel relations.

The conversation also examines the future of negotiations with Iran, the role of Hezbollah and the Houthis, the difference between tactical and strategic success in warfare, and how military leaders balance battlefield gains against political and diplomatic realities.

Guest Bio

Andrew Fox is a frontline conflict researcher and former British Army officer who served for 16 years in the Parachute Regiment, reaching the rank of Major. He completed multiple deployments in Afghanistan—including alongside U.S. Army Special Forces—as well as tours in Bosnia, Northern Ireland, and the Middle East. A specialist in modern warfare, disinformation, and the Middle East, he previously taught War Studies and leadership at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and is currently pursuing a PhD focused on lessons from the October 7 attacks and the war in Ukraine.

Andrew is a senior associate fellow at several international policy institutes and a frequent media commentator, appearing on outlets including Fox News, BBC Newsnight, Sky News, and i24. His reporting and analysis have taken him to the front lines in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine. He is also the author of a widely read Substack on conflict, security, and global affairs.