Nakajima Quant Desk - English

Nakajima Quant Desk - English

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Nakajima Quant Desk - English episodes

  • Jobless Claims Steady, Oil Jumps, Fed Balance Sheet Expands | Sep 10, 2026 / DOL, EIA, FRB / Weekly Macro Report
    Breaking down this week's 3 major US macro releases (Sep 10, 2026) 📊
    Initial jobless claims held at a historically low 206,000, signaling labor market resilience 📈
    But WTI crude surged over $8 in a week to $92.69, with distillate inventories 13% below the 5-year average ⚠️
    The Fed's balance sheet grew year-over-year, hinting QT may be stalling 💡
    Labor, energy, and liquidity data are sending mixed signals this week — here's the strategist-level breakdown.
    ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/CSofb3mxzlA
    5 min
  • Sentiment falls, inflation fears rise | Sep 11, 2026 / U. Michigan Survey
    📊 The University of Michigan's preliminary September reading fell to 47.8, down 7.5% from August — a second straight monthly decline.
    📉 Current conditions barely moved, but the Expectations Index plunged 11.1%. Households are more worried about the future than the present.
    🔥 1-year inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% to 4.6%, the highest since June.
    ⚠️ Weakening sentiment paired with rising inflation expectations complicates the Fed's policy path. Final September data due Sep 25.
    ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/czbEGDHynpc
    4 min
  • Headline Accelerates While Core Cools, a Rare Divergence | Sep 11, 2026 / U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics / CPI Report
    📊 US CPI rose 0.4% in August, a sharp jump from July's 0.1%, driven mainly by a gasoline price surge that accounted for over a third of the monthly gain.
    📉 Meanwhile, core CPI (ex food & energy) cooled to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% in July — the third straight monthly deceleration.
    🏠 Shelter costs reaccelerated to 0.3% m/m, the fastest since May, keeping services inflation concerns alive.
    💡 We break down this mixed report where the headline and core trends move in opposite directions.
    Next release: October 14, 2026.
    ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/6ikmIgKtOdg
    3 min
  • Large Firms Rebound Sharply While SMEs Stay Negative | Sep 11, 2026 / Ministry of Finance Japan / BSI Survey
    Deep dive into Japan's Ministry of Finance Corporate Business Sentiment Survey (BSI), Q3 FY2026 📊
    Large-company sentiment BSI jumped from -0.5 to +5.3, beating the prior forecast of +4.3. Ordinary profit outlook swung from -2.4% to +2.3% YoY — a dramatic reversal 📈
    But small businesses remain deeply negative at -10.9, with 16.6% citing risk of business shrinkage or exit due to labor shortages, versus just 4.7% for large firms ⚠️
    We break down the two-speed Japanese economy hidden inside this data, and what it means for BOJ policy. Next survey due in December.
    ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/vahOpA-sX58
    4 min
  • YoY accelerates to 7.6% but MoM turns negative for first time in a year | Sep 11, 2026 / BOJ / Corporate Goods Price Index (Aug 2026 Flash)
    Deep dive into Japan's August 2026 Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) 📊
    Domestic CGPI YoY accelerated to +7.6%, near cycle highs. But the MoM print turned negative (-0.2%) for the first time in about a year ⚠️
    Import prices decelerated sharply (YoY +29.1%→+24.8%) as yen appreciation and falling energy prices combined 📉. Yet metals and gold-linked categories kept rising 💹
    Upstream inflation pressure shows both persistence and deceleration at once—key signals for the BOJ's next policy move.
    ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/4ZpWTaNNgoo
    4 min
  • The Light and Shadow of Oracle's AI Boom | Sep 10, 2026 / Oracle Corporation / Q1 FY2027 Earnings Release
    Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) reported Q1 FY2027 earnings. 📊
    Total revenue hit a record $19.3B (+30% YoY), Non-GAAP EPS reached $1.92 (+30% YoY).
    📈 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) revenue rocketed 121% YoY to $7.4B, extending triple-digit growth. RPO surged $209B YoY to $664B.
    ⚠️ But capital expenditures ballooned to $28.5B, pushing Free Cash Flow to negative $5.4B. We break down the GAAP and Non-GAAP numbers behind Oracle's AI infrastructure investment cycle.
    💡 Also covering Q2 FY27 guidance and the raised full-year revenue outlook of at least $90B.
    ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/DNXFbJwcJfc
    5 min
  • Headline PPI accelerates while core cools—a split inflation signal | Sep 10, 2026 / BLS / Producer Price Index
    📊 A deep dive into the August 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    Headline final demand PPI rose 0.4% MoM, accelerating sharply from July's 0.1%. Yet core PPI (ex-food, energy, trade services) cooled to 0.3% from 0.4%.
    💡 Energy—especially a 24.1% single-month diesel spike—drove most of the headline gain. Meanwhile, Stage 1 intermediate demand rose 11.3% YoY, signaling upstream cost pressure.
    ⚠️ We break down both the hawkish and dovish readings of this split-signal report and what it means for the Fed's next move.
    ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/HO7KjTCIc4w
    3 min
  • What Capital Flows Reveal About the Yen's Sudden Strength | Sep 10, 2026 / Ministry of Finance / Weekly Securities Flow Report
    Breaking down Japan's Ministry of Finance weekly international securities flow data. 📊
    USD/JPY dropped from 159.97 to 156.11 in a single week — a 2.4% move. 📉
    Foreign investors bought a net ¥690bn of Japanese stocks (2nd-highest in 8 weeks), and JGB buying stayed positive for a third straight week. 💹
    Meanwhile, Japanese investors flipped to net selling foreign stocks (-¥481.6bn), signaling a shift in cross-border demand. ⚠️
    It's too early to call this a structural trend from one week of data. Next release: Sep 17, covering Sep 6-12.
    ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ufZKMMsE0CI
    5 min
  • Money supply growth slows as deposits shift from cash to time deposits | Sep 9, 2026 / Bank of Japan / Money Stock Preliminary Report
    Deep dive into the Bank of Japan's August 2026 Money Stock preliminary report.
    📊 M2 grew +2.0% YoY, M3 +1.2% YoY — both slowing for a 4th straight month.
    💰 Quasi-money (time deposits) held firm at +4.4%, while M1 (settlement deposits) turned negative at -0.1%.
    📈 Broadly-defined liquidity stayed high at +4.4%, driven by investment trusts (+12.0%) and foreign bonds (+7.1%).
    ⚠️ CDs plunged -8.0% YoY.
    We analyze what this means for BOJ policy normalization and the yen — with balanced, data-driven analysis.
    ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ryZPbAwhn-Q
    4 min
  • Japan Real Wages Post 7th Straight Monthly Gain | Sep 8, 2026 / MHLW / Monthly Labour Survey
    📊 A deep dive into Japan's July 2026 Monthly Labour Survey (flash estimate), published by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
    Real wages rose +2.4% YoY, marking seven consecutive months of gains since turning positive in January 2026.
    💡 Base pay (scheduled earnings) grew a robust +4.1%, reflecting strong spring wage negotiation results.
    ⚠️ However, a same-establishment reference measure shows softer growth of just +3.0%, and employment growth is decelerating.
    We break down what this means for the Bank of Japan's policy path — balancing strength and caution.
    ▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/XHagwK5SIvI
    5 min

About Nakajima Quant Desk - English

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AI-powered macro economic analysis covering central bank policies, economic indicators, and corporate earnings. Featuring regime analysis of Fed, BOJ, ECB and more, delivered at the speed of data…