Nakajima Quant Desk - English

The September 2026 BOJ Tankan delivered a striking upside surprise: companies forecast a headline DI of just 11 back in June, but actual results hit 21 — a 10-point beat. 📊

Manufacturing improved across all firm sizes, while non-manufacturing stalled. Large manufacturers' FY2026 ordinary profit plan swung from -6.7% to +13.6%, a massive upward revision. 💹

Meanwhile, the borrowing rate DI jumped 7 points nationwide, with further increases expected by December. Labor shortage sentiment also deepened. ⚠️

The key caveat: companies' own December forecasts were revised down across every category. Is this improvement a genuine recovery, or just a temporary plateau? Full analysis inside.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/0Zikg3C0G9A

📊 The Bank of Japan hiked rates again at its Sept 17-18 meeting — just 3 months after June's hike, a notably faster pace.

💡 Some board members now say trend inflation has "generally reached 2%," but Q2 GDP revealed negative domestic demand.

⚠️ Several members dissented, citing weak consumption — the decision was far from unanimous.

📈 The Cabinet Office requested a review of the "cumulative impact" of hikes so far. Watch services prices, wages, and the neutral-rate debate next.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/Pt80uzhzYco

📊 Micron Technology (MU) reported fiscal Q4 2026 results.

💰 Non-GAAP EPS hit $33.42, roughly 11x the $3.03 a year ago. Revenue reached $54.23B, up 379% YoY.

🚀 Core Data Center revenue grew over 10x YoY, confirming intense AI memory demand.

⚠️ Cloud Memory margins slipped slightly, showing uneven benefits across segments.

📈 Guidance for next quarter points to $61.5B revenue. Durability of AI demand is the key question ahead.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/-nOKP6H_YN4

🇺🇸 The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Third Estimate of Q2 2026 GDP.

📊 Real GDP was revised up to 2.2% SAAR (from 1.5%, +0.7pp).

💪 Real final sales to private domestic purchasers surged to 4.6%, showing robust underlying demand.

⚠️ Yet the PCE price index held at 5.0% (core 3.3%) — still elevated.

💡 Stronger growth and sticky inflation together complicate the Fed's path forward.

Next release: Oct 29, 2026, Q3 GDP Advance Estimate.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/7yvI8444RPw

📊 A deep dive into Japan's August 2026 Industrial Production Index (IIP), released by METI.

Output fell 1.7% m/m for a 2nd straight month, though y/y growth held at +3.4%.

🚗 Automobiles plunged 6.8%, the single biggest drag on the headline number.

💡 Meanwhile, production machinery jumped 6.1% m/m and 25.0% y/y, driven by semiconductor-equipment demand.

⚠️ The inventory ratio rose for the first time in 2 months. September/October forecasts point to a big rebound, but the realization ratio came in at -8.8%, flagging a persistent upward bias in corporate forecasts.

We break down what this means for Japanese equities and the Bank of Japan.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/H_IHaDN9Y3Y

📊 A deep dive into the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' August JOLTS report.

Job openings fell to 7.079 million (down from a revised 7.335 million), but layoffs also eased to 1.641 million, while the quits rate held steady at 1.9%.

⚠️ The standout: small businesses (1-9 employees) saw their openings rate plunge from 6.0% to 4.3%, hinting at a shift in small-firm hiring sentiment.

💡 The labor market isn't collapsing or overheating — it's normalizing quietly. Next release (September data): November 3, 2026. We break down what it means for the Fed's rate path.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/gfQeG6Q1Va0

📊 A deep dive into Brazil's latest Focus Market Readout from the central bank (BCB).

The Selic rate-cut path to 2029 remains unchanged for a fourth straight year, with over 130 forecasters in tight agreement.

📈 Yet 2026 inflation forecasts rose for a second straight week to 4.99%, above the BCB's 4.5% tolerance ceiling.

📉 GDP growth forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 were cut for a third consecutive week.

💡 The Selic-BOJ rate spread stands at 12.52 points — key for BRL/JPY carry trades.

⚠️ Fiscal metrics also show early signs of strain.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/vpbjR5faEf0

📊 A deep dive into the BCB's latest Focus Market Readout (Sep 11, 2026).

The 2026 year-end Selic forecast has held at 13.75% for six straight weeks — but the freshest 5-day data already shows 13.56%, with respondents surging from 35 to 98.

📈 IPCA forecasts are diverging: falling for 2026, rising for 2027, still above BCB's 4.5% ceiling.

💡 We break down what this means for BRL/JPY carry trades and Japanese investors holding Brazilian assets.

⚠️ Next release: Sep 21, 2026.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ZzmU-g4hpIM

📊 Japan's METI confirmed July's Industrial Production Index at 104.4 (-0.2% MoM), revised down from a preliminary +0.1%.

💊 Pharmaceuticals and canned cocktails drove the downgrade.

⚙️ Yet production machinery, including semiconductor equipment, surged +16.4% YoY, and utilization kept rising.

📉 August plans were revised up to +6.4%, but September forecasts a -4.2% pullback.

A deep dive into Japan's two-speed manufacturing economy.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/-VL84nxeT8w

This week's global data revealed a common thread: an energy-driven split between headline and core inflation.

📊 US CPI & PPI headlines accelerated while core measures cooled

📊 Japan's PPI hit +7.6% YoY but fell MoM for the first time in 11 months

⚡ ECB delivered a rare hike against a supply shock (deposit rate to 2.50%)

💰 Japan's GDP was revised up, though capex stayed negative for a 2nd straight quarter

💡 Oracle's cloud revenue surged 121%, but free cash flow turned negative on AI capex

Next week's FOMC (Sep 16) is the key event — how the Fed reads this inflation split will move rates and FX.

▶️ Full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/YSFA5MkmWHk