Founders WASTE a year on bad startup ideas because they struggle to answer the question "How can I make sense of what interviewees tell me?". Today, founders typically evaluate responses using the criterion "I know a validated assumption when I see it" -- a recipe for fooling yourself. Instead, founders can use Nascent's structured approach to categorizing interviewees' Pain, which is the first step to assessing the viability of a startup idea.

Previously in Episode 26, Mike detailed Nascent's approach to capturing data. Here in Episode 27, Mike introduces Nascent's approach to analyzing data, starting with the Yardstick of Pain™, a three-part scale (hurting, fine, joyous). Founders categorize each interviewee and then iterate in small batches of ~5 interviews.

This is Episode 027: No, don't interpret discovery interviews by feel. Instead, use the Yardstick of Pain. In this episode:

(00:00) Don't fool yourself

(03:33) Test systems must have consistency and repeatability

(05:02) Nascent's four-part structure: Gather, Capture, Categorize, Iterate

(05:35) The Yardstick of Pain: hurting, fine, joyous

(07:13) FAQs about the Yardstick of Pain

(10:15) Examples: Uber and a precision agriculture startup

Are you new to the Nascent podcast? Start with Episode 019

Let's connect:

Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com

Miro board with visuals and frameworks: https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/

Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nascentidea

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-startups-podcast/id1728760830

Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea

Reach Mike at [email protected]

Links and sources:

Nascent Ep026: No, don't trust self-reported data from discovery interviews.

Nascent Ep023: No, don't mimic successful founders. Instead, meet the guy solving startups' biggest challenge.

Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible.

Wong-Baker FACES Pain Rating Scale: https://wongbakerfaces.org

Richard Feynman, "Cargo Cult Science": https://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm

NSF I-Corps: https://new.nsf.gov/funding/initiatives/i-corps

Nascent frameworks referenced:

Yardstick of Pain™ — A three-bucket emotional scale (hurting, fine, joyous) that founders apply to each discovery interviewee. Introduced this episode.

People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain.

A key reason that founders WASTE a year on bad startup ideas is that they accept low-quality data that they'd NEVER accept elsewhere. Specifically, founders "capture" data from discovery interviews using their memory and their notes -- self-reported data that's a recipe for getting fooled. Instead, they need recordings to actually capture what interviewees say.

This is the first episode in a series on how Nascent approaches data in discovery interviews. Mike walks through why memory and notes deceive founders, why engineers would never accept self-reported data anywhere else, and how Nascent's four-part data structure (Gather, Capture, Categorize, Iterate) gives founders a way to be decisive in days. Some founders are worried about recording so Mike addresses this fear and shares best practices.

In this episode:

(00:00) Don't fool yourself

(03:12) Three types of data to analyze startup ideas

(06:22) Founders get fooled by low-quality data

(08:01) People in Pain are the fundamental force startups operate on

(10:49) Nascent's four-part structure for data: Gather, Capture, Categorize, Iterate

(12:57) Best practices to overcome the challenges of recording

Are you new to the Nascent podcast? Start with Episode 019: https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/019-the-next-100-episodes-on-nascent

Let's connect:

Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com

Miro board with visuals and frameworks: https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/

Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nascentidea

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-startups-podcast/id1728760830

Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea

Reach Mike at [email protected]

Links and sources:

Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/022-yes-search-for-people-in-pain

Nascent Ep025: No, searching for People in Pain is not marketing. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/025-no-searching-for-people-in-pain

Richard Feynman, "Cargo Cult Science" https://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm

Nascent frameworks referenced:

People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain.

People-to-Prospect Funnel™ — A 5-layer funnel showing the path of any person to becoming a customer (introduced in Ep022).

This is a follow-up episode in response to a listener question regarding Episode 022. The listener asked: Isn't searching for People in Pain just marketing? No. Marketing deploys the knowledge a business already has. Searching for People in Pain is the project of figuring out whether it's even worth it to try to get that knowledge in the first place.

This episode unpacks the most-abused word in startups ("customers") and contrasts how marketing works in an established, conventional business with customers versus an attempt at marketing for a customer-breakthrough tech startup with no customers. In brief, marketers run a knowledge-flywheel powered by existing customers' data. By contrast, startups with no customers are a data disaster.

In this episode:

(00:00) A data disaster

(02:49) The most important and misunderstood word in entrepreneurship: "customer"

(03:53) Recap of Ep 022 — the People-to-Prospect Funnel

(05:09) In conventional businesses founders can LEARN about existing problems and solutions

(06:56) Customer-breakthrough startups require founders to CREATE knowledge about problems and solutions

(07:28) Audience question in detail

(08:26) Effective marketing requires knowledge of messaging + economics

(10:27) The invisible chain of events behind marketing

(12:56) The cold-start problem that blocks tech startups

Are you new to the Nascent podcast? Start with Episode 019: https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/019-the-next-100-episodes-on-nascent

Let's connect:

Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com

Miro board with visuals and frameworks: https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/

Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nascentidea

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-startups-podcast/id1728760830

Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea

Reach Mike at [email protected]

Links and sources:

Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/022-yes-search-for-people-in-pain

"The Lean Startup" by Eric Ries https://theleanstartup.com/

John Wanamaker quote on advertising https://www.azquotes.com/author/15273-John_Wanamaker

Typical advertising conversion rates and costs:

- https://www.ruleranalytics.com/blog/insight/conversion-rate-by-industry/

- https://firstpagesage.com/reports/digital-marketing-conversion-rate/

- https://totalproductmarketing.com/marketing-insights/conversion-rate-display-ads-all-industries/

- https://www.cometly.com/post/typical-conversion-rate-guide

Nascent frameworks referenced:

People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain, but they're invisible.

People-to-Prospect Funnel™ — A 5-layer funnel showing the path of any person to becoming a customer.

Reid Hoffman was WRONG when he said "starting a company is like jumping off a cliff and assembling a plane on the way down -- your willingness to jump is your most valuable asset as an entrepreneur."

"Willingness to jump" is not even his most valuable asset! His most valuable asset is his ability to know whether a startup idea has a chance of success. Only then is willingness to jump valuable, not disastrous. This episode introduces the Chain of Success: a framework to prioritize our work when seeking an early signal about whether a startup idea is worth pursuing.

In this episode:

(00:00) Don't build a plane while flying — Reid Hoffman's quote

(03:08) Founders focus on winners (1% exits are $10M+)

(04:42) Distribution of startup outcomes (hat tip 🎩 Jared Heyman, Rebel Fund)

(09:46) 1 year wasted on a $0 exit = unacceptable

(10:40) Nascent's 10x improvement goal

(11:43) The Chain of Success framework

(13:21) Two strategic points: fragility and signal

(14:38) Only prioritize the riskiest link: paying customers

(17:27) Chain of Success applied to doctors (gunshot vs paper cut)

(22:24) Chain of Success applied to airplanes (wings vs seatbelts)

(24:04) Go record one conversation

(25:00) Mailbag: feedback from Michael

Are you new to the Nascent podcast? Start with Episode 019: https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/019-the-next-100-episodes-on-nascent

Let's connect:

Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com

Miro board with visuals and frameworks: https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/

Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nascentidea

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-startups-podcast/id1728760830

Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea

Reach Mike at [email protected]

Links and sources:

Nascent Ep020: The biggest problem in startups. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/020-the-biggest-problem-in-startups

Nascent Ep021: No, getting customers is the wrong goal. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/021-no-getting-customers-is-the-wrong

Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/022-yes-search-for-people-in-pain

Nascent Ep023: No, don't mimic successful founders. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/023-no-dont-mimic-successful-founders

Reid Hoffman quote — "starting a company is like jumping off a cliff" https://x.com/reidhoffman/status/1481071139221049345

Jared Heyman references: https://jaredheyman.medium.com/on-the-power-law-of-y-combinator-startups-19cfb39863d6 and https://jaredheyman.medium.com/on-yc-startup-exits-2025-update-c6017e8e526e

CB Insights — Top reasons startups fail https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/startup-failure-reasons-top/

Tom Eisenmann, Why Startups Fail https://www.amazon.com/Why-Startups-Fail-Roadmap-Entrepreneurial/dp/0593137027

Nascent frameworks referenced:

Chain of Success™ — A visualization tool showing the components (customers, product, etc.) a business needs to succeed. If any link breaks then the Chain breaks and the business fails. The Chain of Success reveals 3 strategic takeaways: Fragility, Signal and Focus.

ERNY™ — Estimated Revenue Next Year from the ground up with no customers today, calculated by analyzing recorded discovery interviews.

People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain.

The biggest challenge in entrepreneurship is that founders of startups with no customers need a way to know if they're about to "make something people want". In this episode, Mike details three experiences that enable him to solve this challenge: (1) measurement systems -- Mike worked for years quantifying consumer products, (2) crossing boundaries -- Mike uses concepts outside conventional entrepreneurship to create Nascent's quantification frameworks and (3) table stakes -- Mike has decades of experience with startups and teaching.

In this episode:

(00:00) "Make something people want" is like saying airplanes just need to "get in the air"

(01:10) For the rest of us, instinct is not enough

(01:39) What Nascent is and why Mike created it

(02:21) Welcome to the Nascent podcast

(02:55) Nascent lets startups with no customers Estimate Revenue Next Year

(03:34) Three reasons Mike is the right person to build Nascent

(05:23) Twenty years in startups; ten in Silicon Valley

(05:54) Create, collaborate, communicate — Mike's three working modes

(07:21) Mike's superpower: explaining things

(08:11) From engineer to regulator — measuring messy, unstructured products

(10:51) From "Your idea sucks." to "Why does my idea suck?!"

(13:23) Discovery interviews need an analysis framework

(14:29) The danger of "you'll know a good startup idea when you see it"

(16:22) Crossing boundaries — the beach, languages

(17:26) From perceiving invisible electrons to invisible People in Pain

(19:41) The Alexa employee anecdote — circuitous career paths and unexpected payoffs

(21:12) CTA: send this episode to a founder who needs it

(22:04) Mailbag: Claudia's outreach

(22:33) Outro

Links and sources:

- Nascent Ep020: The biggest problem in startups remains unsolved. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/020-the-biggest-problem-in-startups

- Nascent Ep021: No, getting customers is the wrong goal. Instead search for People in Pain. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/021-no-getting-customers-is-the-wrong

- Nascent Ep022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But they're invisible. https://www.nascentstartups.com/p/022-yes-search-for-people-in-pain

- Y Combinator — the "make something people want" motto https://www.ycombinator.com/

- Paul Graham's "internal compass" quote https://paulgraham.com/before.html

- Steve Blank https://steveblank.com/

- Jerry Engel https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/engel-jerome/

- Innovation Corps (I-Corps) at the National Science Foundation (NSF) https://www.nsf.gov/funding/initiatives/i-corps

- The Mom Test by Rob Fitzpatrick https://www.momtestbook.com/

- Helen Rennie — cooking instructor https://www.youtube.com/user/helenrennie

- Richard Feynman — "you are the easiest person to fool" https://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm

Nascent frameworks referenced:

- ERNY™ — Estimated Revenue Next Year from the ground up with no customers today, calculated by analyzing recorded discovery interviews.

- People in Pain™ — The first signal a startup might have a customer. Every customer starts as a Person in Pain.

Let's connect:

- Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com

- Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com

- LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer

- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Nascentidea

- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY

- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-podcast/id1728760830

- Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea

- Visuals and frameworks (Miro): https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/

- Reach Mike at [email protected]

Episode 022: Yes, search for People in Pain. But, they're invisible.

In this episode, Mike introduces the distinction between conventional businesses (where knowledge exists) and breakthrough startups (where founders must create new knowledge). He details the challenge for founders of customer-breakthrough startups: to create knowledge, they must identify People in Pain who are invisible. To distinguish invisible People in Pain from visible customers, Mike presents the People-to-Prospect Funnel, a 5-layer framework for understanding what it takes for a startup to get a customer.

In this episode:

(00:00) Let's go get customers, right? Wrong!

(00:53) Intro: trying to get customers is too tedious

(02:02) Recap: why searching for People in Pain is easier than chasing customers

(04:43) All businesses use knowledge to provide pain relief to People in Pain

(05:17) Conventional businesses vs. breakthrough startups

(05:57) Example of a conventional business: the pizza shop

(08:33) Examples of technology-breakthrough: Ozempic, teleportation

(10:17) Examples of customer-breakthrough startups: Airbnb, Uber

(11:05) How a founder, Paul, used Nascent to decide in days

(11:35) Founders make two investments in knowledge creation

(12:53) Why People in Pain are invisible

(14:11) Antennas on your head -- developing a new sense of Pain

(15:21) The People-to-Prospect Funnel: 5 layers from blockers to customers

(17:56) Example of the People-to-Prospect Funnel: a food cart pod

(22:26) CTA: who are the People in Pain you're searching for?

Nascent frameworks referenced:

- People in Pain™ -- the first signal a startup might have a customer; every customer starts as a Person in Pain

- People-to-Prospect Funnel™ -- 5-layer funnel: blockers, insidious distractions, People in Pain, prospects, customers

- Knowledge-creation project -- The Nascent definition of a startup where founders must create new knowledge

- Categorizing businesses by knowledge -- new solution to an obvious problem vs. new solution to a hidden problem

- Doubtful vs. possible -- the binary assessment of whether success for a startup idea is doubtful or possible.

Let's connect:

- Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com

- Visuals and frameworks (Miro): https://miro.com/app/board/uXjVGhU2Xoo=/
- Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com

- LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer

- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Nascentidea

- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY

- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-podcast/id1728760830

- Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea

- Email: [email protected]

Links and sources:

- 021: No, getting customers is the wrong goal. Instead search for People in Pain. https://open.spotify.com/episode/7caiudvijZhCrKDjlHKzsw?si=D80_hfneTSONn8cndHAV0w

- Yums of PDX https://www.yumsofpdx.com/

Your startup is a knowledge creation project. The knowledge you need doesn't exist yet -- you have to create it. And the most important piece of that knowledge comes from identifying invisible People in Pain who might someday become your customers.

Asking how to get customers for a startup is asking the wrong question. In this episode, Mike explains why pursuing paying customers is the wrong first step, introduces the concept of People in Pain™ as the first signal that your startup might ever get a customer and sets a ridiculously low bar for evaluating your startup idea.

In this episode:

(00:00) Hook: "Can I show you how to get customers? No. Because nobody can."

(00:51) Intro: welcome to the Nascent podcast

(01:28) This is episode 21 -- customers are the wrong goal

(01:41) Why "focus on the customer" doesn't apply to startups with no customers

(02:36) Embrace having no customers -- you have no commitments

(04:00) Trying to get customers is often a huge waste of time

(04:19) Metaphor 1: Can your airplane generate lift?

(05:50) Metaphor 2: Can you get a bat to hit a ball?

(08:02) Every customer starts as a Person in Pain

(08:31) Search for People in Pain and quantify their Pain in dollars

(09:24) People in Pain are invisible

(10:32) CTA: who are the People in Pain you're searching for?

(10:56) Payoff: reject the wrong question, embrace the right one

Nascent frameworks referenced:

- People in Pain™ -- the first signal a startup might have a customer; every customer starts as a Person in Pain

- Doubtful vs. possible -- the binary assessment: is success for this startup idea doubtful or possible?

- Knowledge-creation project -- what a startup actually is; the knowledge does not yet exist and must be created by the founder

Let's connect:

- Newsletter: nascentstartups.com

- Work with Mike: nascentidea.com

- LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer

- YouTube: youtube.com/@Nascentidea

- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY

- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-podcast/id1728760830

- Twitter: https://x.com/NascentIdea

- Contact: [email protected]

Stop chasing customers. Start searching for People in Pain. If you can find people with expensive Pain, there's a possibility your startup could succeed. If you can't, the chances are doubtful -- and another project would be a better use of your time.

Startups with customers face different challenges than startups with no customers. But conventional startup strategies don't make this distinction — there's no Playbook A for startups with customers and Playbook B for startups with no customers. In this episode, Mike makes the case that founders of startups with no customers are underserved, explains why even the most accomplished entrepreneurs can't solve this problem, and introduces Nascent methodology as the dedicated playbook for founders who need to quickly evaluate their startup ideas in days.

In this episode:

(00:00) Hook: there's no dedicated playbook for startups with no customers

(01:36) Intro: welcome to the Nascent podcast

(02:04) The gap in conventional startup strategy

(03:08) Founders are special creative people with unlimited ideas but limited time

(03:52) The ERNY value™ — Estimated Revenue Next Year

(04:18) Nascent's two audiences: Birdie (repeat founder) and Phoenix (pivoting founder)

(06:24) First-time founders: "This will work!" vs "Will this work?!"

(07:36) "I can explain it to you, but I can't experience it for you"

(08:28) Why haven't startup experts solved this problem?

(09:36) Native speakers vs. foreign-language speakers

(11:12) Paul Graham's "internal compass"

(12:04) Kim, the native speaker of startups

(12:48) Detailed measurements in Nascent methodology

(13:28) CTA: Was previous advice detailed or just touch-and-feel?

Links and sources:

- Eric Ries, The Lean Startup (quotes from pages 4 and 47) — https://theleanstartup.com

- Steve Blank, "Build it and they will come is not a strategy. It's a prayer." — https://steveblank.com/

- Paul Graham, "Before the Startup" lecture at Stanford — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ii1jcLg-eIQ

- Helen Rennie, "How to Make Egg Pasta" on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_fu5RaXMVk&t=40s

Nascent frameworks referenced:

- ERNY value™ — Estimated Revenue Next Year from the ground up with no customers today, calculated by analyzing recorded discovery interviews

- Doubtful vs. possible — the binary assessment Nascent delivers against the question, "Is success for this startup idea doubtful (stop) or possible (keep going)?"

Subscribe and follow:

- Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com

- LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer

- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Nascentidea

- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY

- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-podcast/id1728760830

Work with Mike: https://nascentidea.com

Conventional startup strategies are for startups with customers. Founders of startups with NO CUSTOMERS need a dedicated playbook. Nascent is the playbook for startups with no customers -- a methodology for founders to decide within days (not years!) whether their idea is an opportunity worth pursuing.

Most startups fail because they can't get customers — and founders often waste years before realizing their idea is a dead end. In this relaunch episode, Mike re-introduces Nascent methodology and a new metric called the ERNY value (Estimated Revenue Next Year, in dollars) that helps founders decide in days, not years, whether their idea is worth pursuing.

In this episode:

(00:00) Hook: founders waste years on dead-end ideas

(00:54) Intro: welcome to the Nascent podcast

(01:24) Steve Blank and Eric Ries — meaningful progress, but still more to do

(02:04) The relaunch — 100 episodes in 50 weeks

(02:27) 12 years of Nascent: from mentoring to workshops to a business

(04:50) Is anyone else working on this challenge?

(06:05) Paul Graham's internal compass — "I don't know!"

(07:59) ERNY value: doubtful vs. possible

(08:37) ERNY is not TAM/SAM/SOM

(10:12) What's ahead on this podcast

(12:17) CTA: subscribe, share, email [email protected]

Links and sources:

- Paul Graham: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ii1jcLg-eIQ

- Steve Blank: https://www.amazon.com/Four-Steps-Epiphany-Steve-Blank/dp/0989200507

- Eric Ries: https://theleanstartup.com

- Rob Fitzpatrick: https://www.momtestbook.com/

- Alberto Savoia: https://www.pretotyping.org

Nascent frameworks referenced:

- ERNY value — Estimated Revenue Next Year from the ground up with no customers today, calculated by analyzing recorded discovery interviews

- Doubtful vs. possible — the binary assessment Nascent delivers against the question, "Is success for this startup idea doubtful (stop) or possible (keep going)?"

Subscribe and follow:

- Website: https://nascentidea.com

- Newsletter: https://nascentstartups.com

- LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/mikevladimer

- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Nascentidea

- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BtFtYF6nVUkLu7d7VVnSY

- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nascent-podcast/id1728760830

Conventional startup strategies are for startups with customers. Nascent is for startups with no customers -- a methodology for founders to decide within days (not years!) whether their idea is an opportunity worth pursuing.

More workshops here: https://lu.ma/nascent