NATO Review

In early February 2022, as the drumbeat of war grew louder and louder, I sat glued to my phone, scrolling social media, and starting to build what would eventually become Saint Javelin. It had been several years since I’d worked as a journalist in Ukraine, but I couldn’t focus on anything besides the impending invasion. As global leaders released waves of intelligence about Putin’s intentions, my mind began to replay key moments that shaped my understanding of Russia’s brutality against Ukraine.

Complacency is a lethal error in strategy making and warfare. As Russia has learned in Ukraine, overestimating your own capabilities and underestimating your enemy can lead to failure. NATO cannot take its own continued strategic success for granted.

During the horror of World War II, many Jewish families in Belgium were forced to hide their children in the hopes that they would avoid detection by the Gestapo and ultimately survive the war. In Belgium alone, more than 5000 children survived the genocide via disguise and concealment from the world. This is the story of Baroness Regina Sluszny: one of Belgium’s remaining Holocaust survivors, and one of the Hidden Children.

NATO’s ability to gather information and fuse intelligence from multiple sources over space, air, sea and land has just reached an important milestone. On Wednesday (10 February 2016), the NATO Secretary General welcomed the statement by Defense Ministers on the Initial Operating Capability for Joint Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance.

“We, the Allied Defense Ministers, have today declared the initial operational capability for NATO's Joint, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance initiative. This achievement follows up to the commitments that our nations made at the Chicago Summit and subsequently reaffirmed at the Wales Summit.” the Ministers declared, stressing that “JISR will maximize the resources we have at hand already, both in NATO and in individual Allies: enhanced inter-connectivity across our system, more training and expertise among our personnel, and lead to better procedures for information handling and sharing. All these improvements will ultimately contribute to a better informed and more watchful Alliance. JISR stands ready to support rapid decision making across several major lines of effort, including the Readiness Action Plan, our strategy on hybrid warfare, and our overall deterrence posture.”

Providing the right information to decision-makers and action-takers is vital for all military operations. While surveillance and reconnaissance can answer the questions “what,” “when” and “where”, the combined information from various intelligence sources and disciplines provide the answers to “how” and “why.” When all of this is combined, you create Joint ISR. NATO JISR has just reached the Initial Operational Capability (IOC) that means promoting and enabling data sharing within the NATO Response force.

How policy planners can learn from the future to make better decisions now.

“Don’t fight the problem, decide it!” This quote, attributed to former United States Secretary of State George C. Marshall, pithily sums up the attitude of effective policy planning in times of turbulence. The temptation to “fight” problems comes from the expectation that all problems are solvable. Yet some problems are unsolvable, and the fight becomes a losing battle.

NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept defines climate change as a “crisis and a threat multiplier”, but what does that actually mean for NATO’s ability to deter and defend? At the NATO Summit in Brussels in 2021, Allies agreed to put climate change at the top of NATO’s agenda, endeavouring to become the leading international organisation when it comes to understanding and adapting to the impact of this epochal phenomenon on security. The new Strategic Concept, which was agreed at the 2022 Madrid Summit, reaffirmed this commitment. Since then, NATO has produced several flagship reports on the topic, which show how the effects of climate change have profound impacts on everyday life. However, there is still a strong need to explore how climate change affects NATO operations across different domains.

The war in Ukraine has underscored the growing geopolitical interdependence between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions. For one, China has helped Russia cushion Western economic and political pressure. Indeed, Beijing’s image in Europe (which has been on a downward trajectory for years) has tanked as the perception of tacit support for Moscow’s assault on the Euro-Atlantic security order and global norms has spread. Conversely, diplomatic, economic and military support from Indo-Pacific partners like Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the Republic of Korea has helped to strengthen Ukraine’s resilience and uphold global norms. More broadly, the war has triggered an intense debate in the United States about how to reconcile the need to assist Ukraine while maintaining focus on the threat that China poses in the Indo-Pacific. This debate continues to raise questions about the implications of U.S. prioritisation for transatlantic relations and European security.

NATO’s multinational battlegroups need help transitioning verified technical interchangeability into national policies that allow them to operate, train, and maintain readiness from a common ammunition stockpile that is legally permitted and safe to use. In February and March of this year, the NATO Standardization Office coordinated with a team from the US Army War College (USAWC) to conduct a ground-level survey within three of NATO’s eight multinational battlegroups. The team’s most salient observation was this: battle group key leaders believe that national policies prevent ammunition exchange within their multinational formation. This perception may hinder a multinational unit’s wartime interoperability, and certainly impedes operational efficiency in peacetime.

Amongst the many vital strategic and security priorities on the agenda at the NATO summit in Vilnius, it was refreshing to see important discussions about space security taking place. Space has long been an important domain for military operations and has been used actively by NATO for its own satellite communications (SATCOM) programme for almost two decades. However, it was not until 2019 that NATO Allies formally recognised space as an operational domain, opening the door to a greater focus on how space can play a pivotal role in our defence.

The dismal performance of Russia’s conventional forces in the early days of the war in Ukraine risks convincing some in NATO that the future Russian threat to the Alliance can be deterred primarily via NATO’s conventional superiority, and that enhancing deterrence of Russian nuclear use in a future conflict is therefore no longer a high priority. This is a dangerous fallacy. It fails to take into account the relevant lessons learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the fundamental change in the future security environment in which NATO will have to deter or defeat Russian aggression and escalation.