New Thinking for a New World

2023 has become a year of recession, inflation, social and labor unrest, war, the ravages of climate, food insecurity, and rising inequality. One casualty of that mess is the rule of law; justice seems to take a beating when times are bad. Why is that?

The demand for justice is not only a basic human right, but also a human need. Yet justice systems in many countries, rich and poor, are too cumbersome, too wrapped up in formalities, too layered with complex and even contradictory laws. Is it possible to deliver effective justice at the individual level, to actually make justice systems work for people?

Our guest, Sam Muller, believes the answer is an emphatic, “Yes,” especially if it is based on data. As a Dutch legal expert he founded and today leads the Hague Institute for Innovation of Law (HiiL). He and his colleagues are in the business of building “people-centered justice” that works for everyone.

What do you think?

This episode was originally published on January 19, 2023

Early last month, there was an extraordinary announcement. Saudi Arabia and Iran had agreed to resume diplomatic relations after seven years of more or less open hostility. Even more extraordinary was the person standing between the Iranian and Saudi foreign ministers, Wang Yi, China's most senior foreign policy official. His statement that day said it all: "This is a victory for dialogue, a victory for peace, major positive news for a world, which is currently so turbulent and restive. And it sends a clear signal."

It was also a victory for China’s rise as a great global power. The United States has shaped Middle Eastern geopolitics—for better and for worse—since Henry Kissinger’s shuttle diplomacy in the 70s. But long-time American client Saudi Arabia recognized that only China could deliver Iran to the negotiating table and, perhaps, assure its future good behavior at least vis-à-vis the Saudis.

What does it all mean? A new Middle Eastern order? The end of the Sunni-Shia conflict? Will the new relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia last? And, what about Israel, not mentioned in the Beijing press conference, but obviously the 800-pound gorilla in the room?

The conceit of this podcast is New Thinking for a New World, which certainly describes what was announced in Beijing. Yasmine Farouk is a student of Middle Eastern diplomacy, focused on Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf. She is a non-resident scholar in the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Listen as she discusses the implications of this revolutionary development.

French President, Emmanuel Macron, has had a complicated few weeks.

On the one hand, China's President Xi gave him red-carpet treatment in Beijing, where Macron, again, made his case for European strategic sovereignty—code for independence from the United States—and said that Europe should not follow America’s lead on Taiwan. Both were music to Chinese ears. On the other, his Taiwan comments stirred widespread anger across Europe and, of course, in Washington. He was burned in effigy in Paris during massive protests against pension reform, shouted down by hecklers in Amsterdam who challenged his democratic credentials, and lectured by even the Iranian government to respect the rights of protesters in the streets. His approval rating is below 30%, and the most recent polls suggest that if the election were held today instead of two years ago, Marine Le Pen would beat him in a landslide. Protesters have taken to reminding him that King Louis XVI ended his reign on the guillotine.

What's going on?

There seem to be only two possibilities. Either Macron has lost his way, which is dangerous for a president of an important country with four years left on his mandate, or he's playing a long game that only he understands.

Our guest on New Thinking for a New World, has strong views on those alternatives. Pierre Lellouche is a former French parliamentarian, government minister, diplomat, and widely-published commentator in France. He is deeply worried about what he sees as Macron’s strategic and political mistakes and the consequences for his country.

What do you think?

Human history is a long and continuing story of migration. People have always moved out of fear or out of opportunity—and other people have always resisted them. That story continues today: as more people try to flee war, climate extremes and poverty, more walls get built, boats sunk, caravans disrupted, and refugees pushed back.

Aren't we supposed to be better than that in the 21st century? After all, we have the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the UN 1951 Refugee Convention, asylum rights enshrined in national laws in the United States, Europe and elsewhere, and endless media coverage of suffering, scared refugees and migrants calculated to evoke sympathy and empathy.

But the long lines are still there; few make it to the safety they seek. Why?

Amelia Frank-Vitale is an anthropologist with years of experience studying migration in Honduras and Mexico. She's also an activist who's interested in the migrants as people, not as plaintiffs or pawns in a political drama. Listen as she discusses what it takes to walk from Honduras to Texas, and the tragedies along the way.

Do you think your country should allow more migrants and whether you would welcome them to your neighborhood?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has settled into a grueling, vicious war of attrition with no end in sight. However, there is a growing consensus in NATO capitals that a long war not only favors Russia but has the potential for nasty, unintended consequences. What does not seem to exist is a strategy to do something about it.

Lots of rhetoric: “Ukraine will win” and “we will do what it takes” as well as tactics galore. Send more weapons; impose more sanctions; threaten the Chinese; cheer Zelensky's Churchillian speeches. But define an endgame or a strategy to get there? Missing in action. Which leaves Russia—and, perhaps, its Chinese sponsor—in the driver's seat.

Anna Wieslander has had the temerity to point out that the emperor has no clothes or more to the point, that the West has no strategy. She is a Swedish defense and security expert, Director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council, and Chairman of the board of the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy. Listen as host Alan Stoga discusses with her what it might take to end this war, one way or the other.

Africa might finally be on the verge of realizing its enormous potential. A booming, young, optimistic population. Vast reserves of the metals needed to power the clean energy transition worldwide. Widespread popular demands to end corruption. A growing middle class. Taken together, these assets could produce the prosperity and peace Africans deserve.

What stands in the way?

One of the most important blockages is too much debt, compounded by too much history of mismanaging past borrowings. Of the 54 countries identified by the United Nations as having severe debt problems, 24 are located in Sub-Saharan Africa today. Many are heading towards default, restructuring or cancellation. Unfortunately, growth and development are likely to suffer as a result.

Bright Simons, a researcher and policy activist in Ghana, thinks it's time to do something different. **He recently published an article in The Financial Times arguing that debt cancellation is not the solution Africa needs now. **Some critics responded that cancellation is as urgent today as it was 20 years ago. But, is rinse and repeat any more likely to work this time?

Israel seems to be on the verge of exploding. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s pursuit of radical judicial reform has been met with massive and growing street demonstrations. The country’s President, Isaac Herzog, has publicly warned of a political "point of no return" with potentially disastrous consequences for Israeli society. Meanwhile, violence between Israelis and Palestinians is soaring, raising the possibility of another intifada and adding to the sense of looming disaster.

Indeed, a recent poll suggested that one-third of Israelis believe the country is heading towards civil war, including 80% of the protesters who oppose Netanyahu’s reforms.

Neri Zilber is a journalist and analyst who focus on Israel's - and more generally Middle Eastern - politics and culture. He is deeply knowledgeable, widely published and moves regularly between Tel Aviv and Washington. Listen as he joins host Alan Stoga for a New Thinking for a New World conversation on a situation that seems destined to go from bad to worse.

What do you think?

After the tragedy of the Pinochet years, Chile had evolved into one of the most successful countries in the Americas in economic terms, but perhaps more importantly, in terms of the health of its democracy. Right and left-wing parties and presidents alternated power, the judicial system worked, corruption was low, Chilean political leaders were respected at home and abroad. All of that came to a screeching halt in 2019 when protests escalated into widespread violence.

Chile was suddenly at, what in almost any other country, would have been a revolutionary moment. However, instead of a civil war, the Chileans launched an inclusive political process to write a new constitution. They wanted a fundamental rethink of political rights, obligations, institutions and processes. Fast forward to September of this year, and the new constitution that was three years in the making was overwhelmingly rejected in a national referendum.

What happened and what happens next? What lessons can others learn from Chile's efforts to reimagine its democracy?

Isabel Aninat, Dean of the Law School of the Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, in Chile has been a keen observer of the constitution-writing process and, more generally, of Chilean politics. She is fundamentally optimistic that Chilean democracy is headed in a good direction.

What do you think?

This episode was originally published on October 27, 2022

At times of rapid societal change, like those we are now living through, the academy can be a radical platform for experimentation and new thinking or a bastion of conservatism — or a combination of both. Whether during the profound social and political disruptions of the 20th century or the accelerating technological disruptions of the early 21st century, universities are uniquely positioned to help societies evolve in ways that benefit all citizens, not just the elite who sit in their classrooms.

But there are huge challenges. How does a modern university navigate the space between its classrooms and labs and the rest of society? How do university leaders prepare students not just to cope with a world that is visibly changing before their eyes, but to lead in a world which is changing at an exponential pace? Indeed, what do you teach today that won't be irrelevant tomorrow? And, can a great university leverage its history to produce better students, leaders and citizens?

The University of Pavia was established by Emperor Charles IV in 1361, making it one of the oldest universities in the world. Francesco Svelto, a distinguished electrical engineer, is now the university's rector. He has the remarkable opportunity and challenges to build a university of the future on a centuries-old foundation. He recently shared his vision for Pavia and, more broadly, education at a time of transformation.

What do you think?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine changed how global politics works. Instead of peace, prosperity and globalization, the scenario became war, recession and “near shore.” Suddenly, the world was separated into a conflict between the US and Europe on one hand and Russia and China on the other, enforced by sanctions and bullying. Everybody else was supposed to choose one side or the other.

What about Mongolia? It is a democracy in a region where that is unusual, almost unique. But it is geographically sandwiched between China and Russia, making it almost impossible to avoid their embrace, especially if they can’t be played off against each other.

What to do?

Dr. Undraa Agvaanluvsan who holds a doctorate in physics, is a former member of Mongolia’s Parliament. She recently explained her country’s challenges in coping with a changing global order.

What do you think?