New Wave Pakistan

Zeerak Rana's guest today is Dr. Adeel Malik, an Associate Professor at the University of Oxford; International Development Department. His research focuses on the political economy of development - Pakistan and the Middle Eastern region.

Dr. Adeel begins by highlighting one of the fundamental concerns for investors in Pakistan - the need for predictability and stability in the business environment. Large-scale investments often span several years, even decades, and require inter-temporal commitments. Investors seek assurances that their assets and investments will not be threatened or expropriated. In such uncertain environments, businesses tend to align themselves with the most stable and powerful institutions in the country.

While he recognizes the pressing need for economic reform in Pakistan, he highlights the challenges associated with implementing such reforms. Tax reform, for instance, is a contentious issue as it directly affects powerful interest groups, such as real estate tycoons. These groups have significant political clout, making meaningful reform difficult to achieve.

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Dr. Neelum Nigar, the Director of the Center for Strategic Perspective (CSP) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, has taken up the mantle of overseeing research and advocacy efforts specifically geared towards addressing Pakistan's non-traditional community challenges, with a primary focus on the looming specter of food insecurity.

Pakistan finds itself on a perilous trajectory towards a severe food insecurity crisis, a situation akin to that experienced by nations at war. This alarming trend is exacerbated by an ongoing confluence of political and livelihood crises, which are eroding people's purchasing power in diverse and profound ways. As a stark indicator of this impending crisis, Pakistan currently ranks a concerning 99 out of 130 countries on the global hunger index, signifying a profound and pervasive food insecurity issue affecting 36.9% of the population.

As we approach the critical turning point of September, the situation is expected to further deteriorate. In this exclusive interview, we delve into the measures Pakistan has thus far put in place to shield its people from the impending food crisis, seeking to understand the degree of preparedness and the semblance of a safety net that exists for its vulnerable population.

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Dr. Gary Gerstle is a professor of American History at the University of Cambridge. Tune into this discussion as Gary explores the notion of Neoliberalism in his book "Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order,", which is a multifaceted and debated concept. It emerged in the mid-20th century as an economic and political philosophy that advocates several core principles.

Firstly, neoliberalism champions free-market capitalism, asserting that minimal government intervention in the economy fosters efficiency, innovation, and prosperity. It emphasizes limited government involvement, advocating for reductions in state size and social welfare programs. Individualism and personal responsibility are central, with an emphasis on individuals making their own economic choices.

Deregulation is a key tenet, with proponents aiming to remove barriers and restrictions that hinder market competition. Neoliberalism also supports privatization, transferring state-owned services to the private sector in pursuit of efficiency. Additionally, it encourages globalization and international trade as vehicles for expanding markets and economic growth.

In essence, neoliberalism is a creed seeking to unleash capitalism by promoting free markets, limited government, individualism, deregulation, privatization, and globalization. These ideas continue to influence policymaking and fuel discussions on economic and political strategies worldwide, including in South Asia.

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Dr. Zoovia Hamiduddin is a long-time medical practitioner and MD and is based in New York. Her specialization is internal medicine.

Tune into this discussion as Dr. Zoovia and Raza Rumi explore the resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States, accompanied by a concerning rise in cases of long-term COVID-19.

This resurgence is exacerbated by the persistent dissemination of misinformation through various media channels, which has contributed to vaccine hesitancy among a significant portion of the population. Additionally, a new variant of the virus has emerged within the United States, displaying a staggering 30 mutations. Each of these mutations represents an ongoing evolutionary process that could potentially lead to increased virulence.

In response to these challenges, there is an urgent need for increased regulation of social media platforms to curb the spread of conspiracy theories and the dissemination of false scientific information. The blurring of the lines between politics and public health measures has further complicated the situation, leading to a negative impact on attitudes towards vaccination. This multifaceted crisis underscores the importance of addressing misinformation and promoting vaccination as crucial steps in the battle against COVID-19 in the United States.

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Today, our focus is on Pakistan's interim government and the potential repercussions it may have on the country's trajectory.

Joining Nauriaz Rana is Syed Muhammad Ali, a development anthropologist and adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University, also known for his regular columns in the Express Tribune.

The past few years have seen significant turbulence in Pakistan, particularly within its political landscape. This period included a vote of no confidence that ultimately led to the removal of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, the earlier dissolution of provincial assemblies, and events on May 9th that inadvertently caused the decline of Pakistan's largest national-level political party.

Now, with the presence of a caretaker administration, questions abound regarding its legitimacy and authority. Syed Muhammad Ali delves into the intricacies of caretaker governments in Pakistan, examining their mandates and the extent of their power to implement various reforms.

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Economist Nauraiz Rana delves into Pakistan's economic history, the factors behind its recurrent economic crises, and potential solutions for long-term stability. Rana discusses the impact of globalization, China's economic reforms, and India's success in staying out of the IMF's cycle.

He also sheds light on the complexities of managing competing foreign interests and offers a comprehensive roadmap for Pakistan's economic future, emphasizing the need for reforms, privatization, and an improved investment climate.

A must-watch for those seeking a deeper understanding of Pakistan's economic challenges and opportunities.

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Dr. Yaqoob Bangash, a distinguished professor, researcher, and historian hailing from Lahore, Pakistan, addresses the critical issues plaguing higher education in Pakistan. This interview dives deep into the alarming state of higher education in the country.

Dr. Yaqoob begins by shedding light on the disturbing trend of rapid university charter approvals by the Pakistani Parliament, both in the private and public sectors. He asserts that this practice has been ongoing for decades, resulting in a proliferation of substandard educational institutions. These institutions, some with questionable names and locations, risk diluting the quality of education and churning out graduates with degrees of questionable value.

Moreover, he exposes the issue of fake knowledge generation and publication in academia, which further erodes the quality of education. He highlights the urgent need for regulatory bodies like the Higher Education Commission (HEC) to address these challenges rather than focusing solely on numerical expansion.

The interview further delves into the dire consequences of this educational crisis, emphasizing the potential for rising unemployment and social resentment among the youth, a significant demographic in Pakistan. Dr. Yaqoob makes a compelling case for the need to differentiate between colleges and universities, emphasizing that universities should be centers of knowledge creation, not just knowledge dissemination.

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In this discussion, Nauraiz Rana engages in conversation with Laila Kasuri, an expert in water and sustainable development with years of experience in the field.

It is worth noting that Pakistan receives a staggering 229 billion cubic meters of water annually, a quantity surpassed by only 16 other countries worldwide. There is a critical need for a comprehensive understanding of both absolute water scarcity and the economic aspects of water security. Many reports declaring Pakistan as water-scarce rely on outdated data that fails to account for the actual runoff the country receives.

Pakistan boasts numerous water sources, with some remaining unaccounted for in current calculations. This raises a pivotal question because it is convenient for governments to assert that Pakistan lacks sufficient water when in reality, scarcity stems more from governance challenges than any natural shortage.

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Host Raza Rumi discusses the escalating tensions between India and China with Kamran Bukhari, an expert from The Newsline Institute in Washington, D.C. They delve into the recent developments, China's strategic challenges to India, and India's economic aspirations. Despite India's impressive growth as the world's fifth-largest economy, Kamran explains why it's unlikely to replace China anytime soon.

The interview also highlights the hurdles foreign investors face in India, including political stability and communal tensions. Kamran provides a balanced perspective, acknowledging India's potential while emphasizing the need for a conducive business environment.

The conversation then turns to Pakistan's role in this complex regional equation. Kamran suggests that Pakistan, due to its vulnerabilities and strong ties with Beijing, is better off staying out of the India-China conflict.

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Bilal Lakhani, a New York-based political and economic analyst, delves into Pakistan's ongoing currency crisis and the urgent need for structural reforms. The Pakistani Rupee's devaluation against the US Dollar is examined, with alarming statistics highlighting the rapid decline from 75 Rupees to a dollar in 2008 to a staggering 330 Rupees in 2023. Bilal emphasizes that this crisis is both a consequence and a driver of Pakistan's economic turmoil.

The conversation navigates the complexities of devaluation, questioning its effectiveness in boosting exports, given the inelastic nature of many essential imports. Bilal dispels the notion of a quick fix, emphasizing the imperative of long-term, politically-driven structural reforms to attract investment, increase exports, and reduce imports.

The interview underscores that the solutions must be political, requiring a government with a mandate from the people. It highlights the challenges of achieving a consensus among Pakistan's political parties on a reform agenda and the need for continuity in government to ensure sustained progress. With a stark analysis of Pakistan's economic predicament, this interview provides valuable insights into the complex interplay of politics and economics in the nation's future.

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