New Wave Pakistan

World Bank Economist, Nauraiz Rana and International Human Rights Lawyer & Policy Specialist UN Women, Hira Azhar discuss the growing epidemic of gender based violence and the grass roots policies available to curb the increasing oppression of women.

The United Nations Population Fund reported on November 25, 2022 that "Violence against women is one of the most prevalent human rights violations across the globe. It is a life-threatening health and protection issue. 32 per cent of women have experienced violence in Pakistan". Nauraiz Rana adds to the conversation by explaining how this is just the tip of the iceberg since cases of violence, particularly domestic violence are gravely underreported.

Hira Azhar provides interesting insights on how bottom up policy making, by way of including tribal leaders, and patriarchs in different groups can actually help accelerate the process of integrating women in society and enabling accessibility towards social and financial inclusivity.

Moreover, the annual criticism and brigade of hatred towards events like the Aurat March that intend to create public space for women and depict their presence in society is another indicator of how willing the masses are in efforts for female emancipation. Nauraiz Rana further elaborates on this by drawing parallels to the roadblocks faced by women in other sectors of society-- particularly the corporate world and the rising cases of workplace harassment.

Nauraiz Rana (Economist, World Bank) sits down with Shahram Azhar (Professor of Economy, Bucknell University), and Danish Khan (Asst. Professor & Director of Inequality, Poverty, Power and Social Justice, Franklin and Marshall College) for a riveting discussion on Pakistan’s political economy, specially in light of the ongoing political chaos. They delve into the necessary conversation about adapting an interdisciplinary approach to understand Pakistan’s economic upheavals and ongoing financial deviations. All three speakers discuss their respective viewpoints on answering the often deliberated question of what causes Pakistan’s economic crisis.

Nauraiz Rana, upon sharing the concerning statistics of Pakistan’s food inflation and currency depreciation poses the question of whether the recent social uprisings were also a consequence of the economic oppression that people are facing. He shares that financial fluctuations in the country most brutally impact low and middle income houses which may compel them to finally mobilize. However, as an alternative angle, Danish Khan reminds us that the nature of political instability is not unprecedented, and provided an analysis of 2012’s debilitating economic situation owed to the country’s terrorism prevalence and power outages. Khan shares that as economists, it is essential to study a greater arch than just the one that falls within a time period of 12 months- particularly in Pakistan where the economy follows a turbulent trajectory.

Other themes explored are of the economic model that Pakistan follows and whether current socio-economic realities necessitate it to be revisited. Shahram Azhar expresses an interesting analysis as he says that Pakistan’s economy doesn’t even encourage capitalist growth, instead it’s tailored for a particular type of profitability that emanates from absolute control over the value chain end to end. He holds this as one of the reasons for the economic downturn as such a model increases input costs and is precisely why the country’s fertilizers are three times more expensive than those in India or UAE. For Nauriaz, the catalyst for economic instability is Pakistan’s inability to redefine the parameters of success. Rana shares that while economic growth is a strong signal of development, factors like institutional changes need to be considered more strongly. For Professor Danish, the beneficiaries of Pakistan’s economic growth and development are limited to the country’s elite, out of which the landed elite play a critical role in determining economic and political trajectories. Khan predicts that it is only when the size of the pie is increased, that stability will ensue.

In this week’s conversation, Raza Ahmed Rumi and Dr. Ali Usman Qasmi sit down to discuss the compelling facets of the recent confrontations of the military establishment and the political elite in Pakistan. One of the key themes that the speakers set to unravel is whether the political and civil mobilisations are truly unprecedented in nature– an analysis for which they deep dive into the historical events that define Pakistan’s history, with a particular focus on the events of the 1971 partition of Bangladesh.

In his analysis, Dr. Qasmi explains that there are limitations to the comparability of the events in 1971 and the repercussions of Imran Khan’s recent arrest from the Islamabad High Court by the paramilitary forces. He says that while, similar to Mujeeb Ur Rehman in the 70’s, Khan withholds the power to confront the army, his intersectional support across all socio-economic groups and genders is what makes him truly exceptional.

Raza Rumi provides a compelling argument expressing his belief that unlike the 70’s Pakistan’s military establishment will now appear more hesitant to exert violent control and brute force in retaliation to civilian uproar and rising national discourse against the institution. Dr. Qasmi elaborates on this point by highlighting that this may not be a result of an internal ethical shift in the military as the continue to reign terror in the provinces of KPK and Balochistan, but perhaps their refrain a result of a realization that they have lost popularity in the region they enjoyed the most support and validation from– Punjab.

Moreover, the role of rising urbanization and consumerism in creating what is called a “new middle class” is discussed comprehensively. The impact of a changing class structure, particularly the introduction of this new middle class in catalyzing an environment of individualism and meritocracy is also explored. This is specifically insightful for understanding why there has been a, what appears to be, national distaste for dynastic politics and admiration for politicians like Imran Khan who are lone strugglers.

An anthro-socio approach to understanding the consequences of creating a singular identity and institutionalizing it is also taken by both speakers, as they assess how this myth-building has manifested itself now in populist politicians masquerading as the epitome of this one-unit national identity. Both speakers delve deep into how the state-mandated construction of a narrative that synonymizes Pakistan with the struggle to gain emancipation from the west and establish a Muslim rule has led to severe consequences in its democratic landscape.

Conclusively, Raza Rumi reiterates that singular events, such as whether the elections take place or whether COAS Asim Muneer decides to step down are only relevant in the short run. He says, “these are footnotes in our history”, and reaffirms that what should be of more concern and critical analysis is whether this new wave of political awareness and participation will finally succeed in overturning the long held hegemony of the military establishment in Pakistan.

Nauraiz Rana (Economist, World Bank) and Michael Kugelman (Director, South Asia Institute - Woodrow Wilson Center) discuss the latest discord leaks that reveal Pakistan’s foreign relations conundrum. The nature of the conundrum was centered around an expression of desire for Pakistan to move away from US focused foreign policy and make modifications to its west appeasing reputation.

Michael Kugelman provides comprehensive reasons for why he believes that a drastic move away from the US is currently not a reality for Pakistan, particularly owing to Pakistan’s current economic situation, and the ties the Pakistani army officials have with their counterparts in the US. Since the Pakistan army has historically received military training in America and a substantial portion of the officials have their families settled in the country, Kugelman argues that the long established ties will not dissolve so easily despite the understandable rationale in Hina Rabbani Khar’s statements in her memorandum.

Exploring the common role of India, the China-Pak relation is also explored in this interview with an interesting comparison with US-Pak relations. Kugelman explains that sufficient thought must be dedicated in understanding that the discord leaks not only reveal Pakistan’s internal policy workings, but that the US continues to spy on and attempt to hack into the systems of other countries to receive information. Whereas, on the contrary, although China and Pakistan undoubtedly face bumps in their relations, Kugelman explains why he believes that both countries will successfully be able to maintain long-term ties.

The long debated, intrinsically nuanced Russia question is also comprehensively unraveled. The hesitance of the current Pakistan government in condemning Russian activity in light of the increasing economic crises– particularly the rising oil prices and rapidly depreciating currency value, as well as the general interest in friendly ties with Russia of the South Asian strip of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan are focal points of the discussion.

Conclusively, both speakers express optimism in the stability that will follow after the resolution of Pakistan’s economic crises– and how investment patterns of China can play a role in achieving this.

Ammar Ali Jan in conversation with Faryal Shahzad, unpacks Pakistan’s elite capture, highlighting the imbalance in the country’s social and economic structure - questioning the intent of all those who tend to perpetuate the existing status quo. Furthermore, they discuss the role of the military, and how it has in the past and arguably, till date, continues to transcend constitutional boundaries, operating beyond the confines of legally accorded power. Taking a hard-hitting stance against mainstream political parties, founder of Haqooq-e-Khalq party Ammar Ali Jan is of the viewpoint that none of the recent governments in Pakistan have governed the country sincerely or with responsibility, rather have continued to absolve themselves of misplaced policies and actions, and in doing so have contributed towards a dysfunctional state. According to Jan, the only way forward for Pakistan is if policies are designed keeping in view the interest of the majority poor population and not to safeguard the interests of those that hold the corridors of power.

Ammar Ali Jan is a Pakistani historian, activist, youth leader and academic. He is a self-proclaimed Marxist, founder, and president of Haqooq-e-Khalq Party, also a member of Progressive International. Jan completed his master’s in social sciences from University of Chicago in 2011 and got his doctorate (Thesis title: "A study of Communist Thought in Colonial India, 1919-1951") in history from University of Cambridge in 2018. Jan has taught as assistant professor of history in University of the Punjab, Government College University, Lahore and Forman Christian College, Lahore.

Raza Rumi talks to renowned activist and SAPAN founder Beena Sarwar about the raison d'être behind the network, how it continues to drive the peace narrative proactively, and where she sees the future of not only Indo-Pak relations, but relations across South Asian nations including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and others. South Asia is one of the least interconnected regions in the world. Traditional adversaries Pakistan and India have been at loggerheads over Kashmir since their inception, because of which both countries have never had a normal relationship.

The South Asia Peace Action Network (Sapan) is a coalition of individuals and representatives of various organizations joining hands for a minimum common agenda: Reclaiming South Asia. It works towards freedom of trade, travel and tourism in South Asia, people-to-people contact, and for 'soft borders' or visa on arrival for South Asians in each other’s countries. It is also redefining linguistic expressions that those belonging to this region and these common 'desi' cultural space can use to reclaim its identity: the organization does not use the all caps 'SAPAN', instead using 'Sapan' which is a word that means ‘dream’.

Former Ambassador, Akbar Ahmed, engages with World Bank Economist, Ahmed Nauraiz Rana, in an insightful and illuminating discussion unraveling the causes of Pakistan’s current socioeconomic status, deliberating upon what needs to be done for national revival. 76 years post independence, Pakistan is arguably at the lowest of lows. Economically, it is teetering at the brink of default on sovereign debt, while socially it is projecting various signs of utter degeneration evident from indicators on gender equality, justice, corruption, ethnic fragmentation, and more. Was Pakistan always bent upon this trajectory since its very inception, or was there a turning point in history that propelled the country in a downward spiral?

Raza Rumi speaks with Historian Ilhan Niaz on Pakistan’s evolving political landscape. According to historian Ilhan Niaz, the political crisis prevalent in Pakistan today is not different to situations that Pakistan confronted in the initial phases of its history. Currently, the inability of the political class to resolve their issues has paved the way for an intervention by the judiciary. This intervention is clearly not a new phenomenon – the cases of PM Nawaz and Yousaf Raza Gillani are very significant examples. The passing of 18th amendment was a good opportunity for the political leaders to do away with the articles 62 and 63 which have often provided the basis for such interventions and ouster of political leaders. However, the issue is that in most instances, those in power focus more on suppressing their opponents rather than working together.

In the current crisis, the direct take over by the military seems highly unlikely. However, if the PDM fails to conduct elections within the 90 days limit provided in the constitution, it can lead Pakistan towards a constitutional crisis which will eventually push Pakistan to further instability.

Ilhan Niaz is a professor of history at Quaid e Azam University. He is winner of the first Karachi Literature Festival (KLF) Award for best non fiction in English in 2011 and the winner of the Higher Education Commission of Pakistan's (HEC-P) Best Book Publication in Social Sciences, Arts and Humanities of 2010 Award.

Nauraiz Rana (Economist, World Bank) is joined by world renowned economist Steve Hanke (Professor, Johns Hopkins University) to delve deeper and identify the underlying causes of Pakistan’s ongoing #currencycrisis, and unprecedented levels of inflation. They discuss the viability of the under-negotiation #IMF program, and former PM Imran Khan’s ability to steer the country out of this turmoil, given he comes to power. Recently, Pakistan's economy has been in an uncontrollable downward spiral undergoing a balance of payment crisis, explicitly losing out on its foreign exchange reserves, and implicitly, on its ability to sustain a functioning economy.

Since January of 2022 the rupee has depreciated by 37.8 percent against the US dollar. The current rate of #inflation has risen to 31.6 percent, which too, is claimed by many Economists to have been underestimated – highlighting the gravity and precariousness of the situation. Over the last ten years the country has accumulated over $70 billion in external #debt bringing the country on the brink of default. Much has been spoken about the flaw in Pakistan’s economic model: import-oriented, consumption-driven, coupled with an underdeveloped and unincentivized export-base which renders the economy unsustainable.

Sundus Siddiqi (Climate Change Specialist - World Bank), Nimra Hayat (Environmental Engineer and Data Scientist - Amazon), and Nauraiz Rana (Economist - World Bank) engage in a thought provoking discussion, highlighting not only the causes behind the 2022 floods in Pakistan, but also the underlying institutional and systemic challenges, including poor urban planning and water resource management, lack of systems for infrastructure maintenance, complex governance, structural inequalities, and limited disaster risk reduction capacity – all of which coupled with climate change have exposed the people of Pakistan to greater risk, pronouncing their sufferings.

The floods showed Pakistan's high vulnerability to climate change despite contributing less than one percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. One-third of the country was submerged under water, and 33 million people were affected. Nearly 8 million people are reportedly displaced. The floods took the lives of more than 1,700 people, one-third of them children. The total damage is estimated at US$14.9 billion, total loss at US$15.2 billion, and total needs at US$16.3 billion.

Moving forward, the reconstruction and rehabilitation from the floods need to be climate-resilient, inclusive, and people-centric, leveraging the power of community. At the same time, Pakistan needs to build on the lessons from these floods to build longer-term systemic resilience as a hedge against future events. There’s need for reforms which will require the government to make smart but tough decisions, even within its limited fiscal space, and create an enabling environment to raise revenue while also attracting further international finance. Pakistan must also act to correct the structural inequalities and inefficiencies in its systems, institutions, practices, and policies, that have been holding the country back from achieving its vision of equitable and sustainable growth for all. To do this, the leadership needs to ensure appropriate devolution of responsibilities and resources to local governments, including arrangements for the mobilization of revenue, and provide avenues for citizens to register their concerns and hold service providers accountable.