Ninety One | The Big Picture

What is typically expected to be a quiet post-holiday week, saw a number of interesting developments exerting influence. US inflation at the consumer and producer levels abated, the UK produced anaemic growth numbers, and the IMF played down talk of peak interest rates. Significantly, the US dollar took a tumble. Jason Borbora-Sheen considers the implications. 

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The past couple of years have been disorderly for Chinese equities. However, President Xi’s recent reshuffle provides greater clarity regarding the government’s direction of travel. In our view, the trend towards localisation – prioritising domestic champions over foreign alternatives, in order to drive self-sufficiency – will benefit several leading companies within the quality spectrum, particularly in the software, healthcare and consumer sectors.

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To get to net-zero we have to finance the high emitting sectors and regions from a state of high carbon to a state of low carbon. The path to getting there is not simple or clear. Head of Thematic Equity Tom Nelson and Sustainability Specialist Annika Brouwer discuss the disorderly transition that is underway.

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The investment world has been rocked by two bank failures in the US and a crisis at a Swiss giant. Financial authorities have stepped in to soothe fears of a contagion and yet investors’ nerves are still raw. Philip Saunders argues that this is a healthy development for the long term.

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In the latest episode of Inside Track David Clare, Partner at Barnett Waddingham, is interviewed by Ninety One's Jaspal Boparai. He provides us with a view of the UK Investment Consulting landscape from the eyes of a true industry veteran as he prepares for retirement.

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Resources prices and the value of producers’ shares are being pushed and pulled by a variety of complex factors, both self-made and external. In an interview last week, George Cheveley shares insights gained from conferences abroad, where he has been both a speaker and delegate. He pays particular attention to gold, a metal that has recently regained some of its lustre.

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The investment world was recently rocked by a bank failure. It was a niche bank but nonetheless important, as its demise highlights the impact of repeated and rapid rate rises. Iain Cunningham explains why this may be the beginning of a problem, not the end.

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For decades an inverted yield curve has unerringly predicted recession in the US and beyond. The margin between the 2-year and the 10-year bonds in the US is around 100 basis points, so despite robust economic data, the future is uncertain. Last week Philip Saunders discussed the theory and implications for the global economy.  

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International Energy Week used to be ‘Petroleum’ week. The need for these companies to be the drivers of the energy transition is paramount, but the transition is not an overnight process. Tom Nelson explains the importance of the transition from the old hydrocarbon energy world to a new green revolution, but also emphasises that the process must be managed carefully by the producers, and monitored by an investment community that is becoming ever more vigilant about sustainability and the environment​

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Predictions of the demise of inflation were seemingly premature after key releases from the US and UK recently. Will it remain ‘sticky’ and thus keep interest rates elevated? Iain Cunningham analyses the fundamentals, the inverted rate curve and the implications for the world’s economic growth.

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