Ninety One | The Big Picture

It’s Budget Day 2023 and SA is on tenterhooks. In the conclusion to Enoch Godongwana’s speech, the word ‘bold’ appears twice. The question is how bold he can be given a subdued economic outlook and the embedded structural weaknesses that are all too familiar. However, the markets were cautiously optimistic in response. Sisamkele Kobus discusses.

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The world’s largest mining investment conference recently concluded in Cape Town, with sustainability at the heart of the next wave of new exploration. In South Africa, three nagging problems linger, as Annika Brouwer explains. 

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The recession-predictor pundits are stoic in their belief that the US is already in, or will be soon in the midst of an economic downturn. However, recent PMI and jobs data show that the world’s largest economy is defiantly robust. Jason Borbora-Sheen puts froward the case for a recession, but not yet.

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Three central banks opened their envelopes last week, but they held little surprise as the contents were well communicated in advance. Russell Silberston argues that investors should look beyond the February meetings to those occurring in March, when things will get interesting.

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2022 was the year the bond markets broke, forcing a fundamental rethink of defensive investment strategies. John Stopford believes a nimble approach to investing is essential.

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Semiconductors are integral to the products we use in everyday life. They are even at the centre of global political disputes. Some predict the industry will be worth over US$1 trillion by 2030, given an ever-increasing demand for chips, and therefore, from an investment perspective, it’s important to remain on top of developments. To this end, the Ninety One Quality team sat down for a deep dive on the semiconductor industry to analyse the market through a quality investment lens and discuss which companies will be the long-term winners in the space. Featuring portfolio specialist Joe Knight, Asia-focused portfolio manager, Charlie Dutton and William Nott, a global analyst on the team. 

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Valuations reset in 2022. Equity prices fell, while cash rates and bond yields rose. As the risk premium returns to more sensible levels, opportunities are beginning to emerge.

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A turbulent year has increased the opportunities for companies that are helping the world transition away from fossil fuels and use energy more efficiently.

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Assets are flowing into ESG funds, but investors need to choose carefully because the ‘sustainable’ label still covers a very wide range of investment approaches. Nazmeera Moola, our Chief Sustainability Officer discusses. 

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Fear was a key driving force of investor behaviour in 2022. This resulted in some major dislocations of asset prices relative to fundamentals. Active investors should look to harness these, explain Werner Gey van Pittius, Victoria Harling and Archie Hart.

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