Real estate is not rocket science. Yes, you can get super fancy with the data and analytics, but at the end of the day, like anything else in a free market, the price (of homes, in this case) ultimately comes down to supply and demand. And right now, at least in Northern New Jersey, demand has been exceeding supply, despite everything that's going on politically, socially, economically, and health-wise in our country.
On the demand side, a lot of renters are looking to buy their first homes, driven largely by historically low mortgage rates and the desire for more space (both indoors and out) in the era of COVID-19, remote learning, and work from home arrangements. Many of these renters are coming from NYC for obvious reasons.
The supply side is a bit more complicated. Some sellers may still be uncomfortable listing their homes during a pandemic. Other owners may not want to sell & have to look for another home in a competitive market. Yet others who may have considered moving out of state may be delaying that decision until things settle down a bit.
The reality though is this (as of August 2020 versus August 2019, according to NJ Realtors):
Hudson County -- median price of single family homes was at $452,500, up 16% from last August, while inventory was down 18%. On average, these homes sold at 101.4% of list price (versus 96.5% last August), suggesting that broadly speaking, single family homes across Hudson County receive multiple offers and sell slightly above asking price.
Bergen County -- median sale price of single family homes was $589,000, up 14% from last August, while inventory was down a whopping 40%! These homes sold at 99% of list price, up from 98.2% last year.
Essex County -- median price was $604,500, up an impressive 21% from last August, while inventory was down 38%! Homes sold at 103% of list price, up from 100.4% last year. Can you say "highest and best"?!
Union County -- median price was $460,000, up 20% from last August, while inventory was down 42%! Homes sold at 100.1% of list price, up from 99.3% last year.
These stats speak for themselves. Until the supply vs demand tug-of-war changes direction, buyers should continue to expect multiple-offer situations and "highest and best" auctions.
Of course, that is not to say there aren't good opportunities to be found. And it's never been this cheap to borrow money to buy a home. You just have to be ready, quick to act, and have a good team on your side (agent, lender, and lawyer).
Tune in for a detailed look at these stats and how the supply and demand picture could shift.
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Stats provided in this episode are available at: http://njar-public.stats.10kresearch.com/reports (shout-out to Mark M. for sharing the link!)
Theme music excerpted from:
Feelin Good by Kevin MacLeod
Link: https://incompetech.filmmusic.io/song/3744-feelin-good
License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/