United Site Services, a portable toilet rental company, is on the brink of bankruptcy after a Private Equity firm ran the company into the sewers leaving Private Credit lenders holding a smelly bag.

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The market is digesting mixed earnings from Dell this morning that showed a revenue miss but strong guidance for future sales amidst anxiety over the AI Bubble. Meanwhile UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has released her much-anticipated budget this morning showing several tax hikes on the way, appeasing a bond market that was ready to pounce on fiscal recklessness.

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Something spooked Nvidia after their recent earnings report so much that the company sent sell-side analysts a memo reassuring everyone that they are "not Enron." In typical fashion the press is carrying the water for Nvidia using the same "Randos" playbook from September of 2023. But what could have spooked them so much? Turns out...it was me!Disclosure: I am short Nvidia.

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Nvidia stock is falling this morning and Google parent Alphabet is rising on reports that Meta is in talks to buy Google's new TPU chips, which were used to train the Gemini3, which saw a successful launch last week.

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The real economy sucks and nothing captures that more completely than a recent headline about pallet management company 48Forty. The company underwent a debt for equity swap with private credit lenders after a private equity firm ran the company into the ground and hid the decay using payment-in-kind. Meanwhile the financial press keeps telling us the economy is great, and that our bad vibes are the problem.

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Last week's selloff in Tech and Crypto appears to be taking a breather (for now) even as a leaked memo from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman suggests the problems at the AI startup are far worse than he's willing to admit publicly. Meanwhile the bankruptcies in the real economy continue to pile up and government inflation and jobs data remains scarce.

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There are five Federal Reserve Governors scheduled to speak today in what can only be described as a Jawbone Parade, where the central bank uses words to move markets in whatever desired direction, almost always up of course. Elsewhere there is a liquidity mess brewing in Japan, as the BOJ talks about rate hikes while the finance ministry talks about FX intervention and stimmies. This is likely contributing to recent tech and crypto volatility.

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The AI Bubble just ran out of gas after the market's stunning intraday reversal following Nvidia's big earnings beat that was loaded with accounting red flags that an exhausted bull market is no longer willing to buy.

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The market is rallying ahead of the open after Nvidia reported earnings that beat expectations...as expected. As usual, Nvidia books have more red flags than a parade of Chinese youth. Elsewhere, The Bureau of Labor Statistics has finally released the September Non Farm Payrolls Report after several months of crickets due to the government shutdown.

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The world is holding it's breath ahead of Nvidia's earnings which will decide the fate of pretty much everything. Meanwhile a slew of retail earnings from Target, Lowes, and TJ Maxx show that the real economy is in dire straits.

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