Not Your Advisor

NVIDIA is the Market & the Market is NVDA

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Doomberg Adam Taggart Herb Greenberg

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“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

A lot may have happened, but I was focused on not over trading today. No trades, just raising my stops. I was literally watching $NVDA, Breadth, and the 10 yr all day. The market right now is a light switch. NVDA is the lever that is moving all boats. It is in essence the entire tide. All the hopes and dreams of the market.

Whether you look at NVDA against its top Semi conductor peers or the Mag 5 (minus aapl and tsla), you can see that NVDA is in the bull market driver seat.

Breadth

* 615 new highs

* 98 new lows

* 52% advancing 44% declining

* 32% below 50 day ma

* 35% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Tech leads down due to Intel and Semi sector

Strong

Bitcoin bounced

Airbnb up 5.28%

HOV up 4.89%

Weak

Intel finished down 11.91%

What to watch

Earnings next week

Wed Jan 31 Fed rate decision

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the treasure is worth the pursuit.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | Google Podcasts | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

Recommended by

Doomberg Adam Taggart Herb Greenberg

Mentored by @BillCara

Substack Featured 2X

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“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

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* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

3:57pm. Very strong close. Lets talk about NVDA. INTEL.

Semi-Conductors are running out of gas! Check out $SOX , $SMH , $NVDA , $ASML , $LRCX . My point is watch $NVDA. it is the chip market!

It is a race of $META and $NVDA . The largest buyer of NVDA AI Chips and largest supplier of AI chips.

Freebie. My 2nd barometric reading is almost there. This is the money printing machine in 1 chart. Multiple crashes and rallies. My long term target for this ratio chart is $25 USD. Either vix is exploding or prices of risk assets declining, and or both. Disclaimer: we can still rally some more from here. Especially if the Fed rate cut happens Jan 31 since everyone is expecting it. Watch the banks as they need lower rates.

For your consideration:

Here is the follow up debate to Thoughtful Money’s original Doomberg Peak Oil interview. Be ready to learn, think and formulate your own opinion. The best of the best hosted by@Adam Taggart with guests @Doomberg and Adam A. Rozencwajg.

#OIL #ENERGY

Breadth

* 510 new highs

* 161 new lows

* 68% advancing 26% declining

* 32% below 50 day ma

* 35% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Lot’s of strength everywhere!

But weakness where it matters most! $NVDA, $AAPL, TSLA, Financials were eh.

Strong

Weak

Visa $V off 2.4% on earnings after hours. PAY OFF YOUR CREDIT CARDS!

Slides from IR

Intel $INTC down 7% plus after earnings. Presentation deck, only 9 slides with content.

What to watch

Jan 31 Fed rate decision

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the treasure is worth the pursuit.

For those who don’t know, the above is the KPOP group BTS. They have a song titled “Bad Decisions”

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Doomberg Adam Taggart Herb Greenberg

Mentored by @BillCara

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“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

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* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

He doesn't post often but always watch out for Diego Parrilla and his work. I recommend his interview below.

I love his framework...

Stages of expertise

* Unconscious incompetence

* Conscious incompetence

* Conscious competence

* Unconscious competence

The entire video is masterclass. I especially loved at 19min market the hard lesson on conviction and the market doesn’t care about yours.

He was in a gold position that was going against him and he asked his boss at JP Morgan if he can double up. Diego was told to sell the position and buy it back twice. In effect his manager was becoming his stop loss. So after he got out of 10,000 ounces of gold and was ready to buy back in 2x the size, he paused and stopped. My takeaway is never ever fall in love with a position.

Speaking of bad decisions! Per Slopeofhope.com.

In spite of the fact that, even in this brain-dead goes-up-every-day market, TSLA has been bucking the trend day after day, the degenerate gamblers at WSB figured they should put their life savings into TSLA calls.

Here’s one example. As the poster says, he started with $250,000, and he put his surviving few thousand bucks into TSLA calls. I suspect his days as a “trader” are now over.

Breadth

* 970 new highs

* 142 new lows

* 42% advancing 54% declining

* 35% below 50 day ma

* 36% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

TSLA after hours

If you are curious, here is the Tesla Investor Deck. And Webcast. The Q&A is the best part.

Strong

Weak

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the treasure is worth the pursuit.

The wonderful show Westworld quotes Shakespeare from Romeo and Juliet. I recommend you check out the series.

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Doomberg Adam Taggart Herb Greenberg

Mentored by @BillCara

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“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

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* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

With 10 min to go into close, volume was half the avg!

QQQ

Volume 26,650,188

Avg. Volume 47,111,732

SPY

Volume 38,164,444

Avg. Volume 79,973,455

Breadth

* 538 new highs

* 124 new lows

* 47% advancing 48% declining

* 32% below 50 day ma

* 36% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Mag 7 party

TSLA fought back. Earnings Thu

DR Horton

Strong

NFLX higher after earnings

TXN lower after earnings

Weak

Real estate

Bitcoin couldn’t hold onto $40k.

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the treasure is worth the pursuit.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | Google Podcasts | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

Recommended by

Doomberg Adam Taggart Herb Greenberg

Mentored by @BillCara

Substack Featured 2X

Premium Service Preview

“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

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* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

I want in! How?Instructions:

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

When you see everyone drunk on euphoria and comingling on one side of the boat including the crew, you must stay focused on the threat of icebergs.

These ratio charts compare SMH to Nasdaq 100 and the SPY. As you can see we are challenging the yr 2000. And it took a mountain of debt to get there.

Look at the cost to get to these nosebleed levels:

Regarding Jobs:

The last time we had 12 consecutive months of negative revisions to jobs reports was 2008. Back then it was -65k on avg negative revision.

In 2023 we hit negative 43k on avg per month of negative revisions.

(Source Danielle DiMartino Booth ) The Bureau of Labor Statistics.

81% of job growth was govt jobs for 12 months through December 2023.

https://www.youtube.com/live/ZWgH-H8-fjo

I realize this has nothing to do with todays price action. But it is important to never lose sight of the Forest.

Breadth

* 1051 new highs

* 292 new lows

* 70% advancing 25% declining

* 31% below 50 day ma

* 36% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Bulls win again

Strong

Weak

What to watch

Jan 31 FOMC

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Earnings

Financial Freedom is not free, but the treasure is worth the pursuit.

*Me micromanaging short entries in the afternoon Friday

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Recommended by

Doomberg Adam Taggart Herb Greenberg

Mentored by @BillCara

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“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

I want in! How?Instructions:

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

* Roller coaster session

* S&P breaking out of range, tech leading

* Yields still sticky

* Strong close

* Bitcoin on edge of cliff

* Telsa on edge of cliff

* Jan 31 is FOMC rate decision

Breadth

* 793 new highs

* 341 new lows

* 66% advancing 29% declining

* 34% below 50 day ma

* 37% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

10 yr yield 4.13% regardless of this rally

Strong

Weak

Gold related

Bitcoin related

What to watch

Jan 31 FOMC rate decision

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the treasure is worth the pursuit.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | Google Podcasts | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

Recommended by

Doomberg Adam Taggart Herb Greenberg

Mentored by @BillCara

Substack Featured 2X

Premium Service Preview

“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

I want in! How?Instructions:

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

* TSM Taiwan semi conductor ignited AAPL

* Strong finish with AAPL carrying the load with rest of Mag 7

* TSLA lagging bad

* COIN finished near lows

* Bitcoin under 50 day

* Yields stubbornly strong

Will the Fed cut rates when the labor market is the 'best' in over 50 years? Will they manufacture another crisis so they can cut?

Breadth

* 291 new highs

* 310 new lows

* 58% advancing 37% declining

* 37% below 50 day ma

* 39% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

* TSLA lagging bad

* COIN finished near lows

* Bitcoin under 50 day

* Yields stubbornly strong

Strong

Mag 6

Weak

COIN

MARA

RIVN

BRRR

BTCO

VIX

ARKB

FBTC

IBIT

KVYO

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the treasure is worth the pursuit.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | Google Podcasts | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

Recommended by

Doomberg Adam Taggart Herb Greenberg

Mentored by @BillCara

Substack Featured 2X

Premium Service Preview

“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

I want in! How?Instructions:

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

How did we finish? Just like yesterday. Massive selloff impulse into last 10 min. This is controlled selling. You have been warned.

My lie detector is still working pretty good

How is breadth doing since 2pm? While mkts bounced, you could have known the true intentions.

On Tue apparently the selling was attributed to Fed head Chris Waller who dissapointed markets with projecting only 3 rate cuts vs 6. How juvenile. It is akin to children begging for sweets.

"This view is consistent with the FOMC's economic projections in December, in which the median projection was three 25-basis-point cuts in 2024".

This morning Lagarde (ECB) warned that market expectations weren’t helping policy makers in their fight against inflation.

“It is not helping our fight against inflation, if the anticipation is such that they are way too high compared with what’s likely to happen."

And inflation stopped going down, with what seemed to be an uptick. Keep in mind these are all phony govt numbers. So if their metrics show inflation is slightly reaccelerating, that means it is raging.

Breadth

* 112 new highs

* 451 new lows

* 21% advancing 75% declining

* 38% below 50 day ma

* 39.5% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Yields are rising

Strong

Volatility

Weak

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the treasure is worth the pursuit.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | Google Podcasts | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

Recommended by

Doomberg Adam Taggart Herb Greenberg

Mentored by @BillCara

Substack Featured 2X

Premium Service Preview

“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

Show Notes

Summary of the day

Reverse order with time stamps

3:58pm look at the selling momentum into the close! It is telling me that last 10 minute ramp is suspect and a snow job.

Breadth

* 227 new highs

* 346 new lows

* 19% advancing 78% declining

* 32% below 50 day ma

* 37% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

10 yr yield gained 3% to close at 4.06%

Strong

Weak

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the treasure is worth the pursuit.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | Google Podcasts | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

Recommended by

Doomberg Adam Taggart Herb Greenberg

Mentored by @BillCara

Substack Featured 2X

Premium Service Preview

“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

I want in! How?Instructions:

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

* TSLA well below its 200 day

* Bitcoin and related ETFs all red

* 10 yr sticky at 3.9 - 4%

* Real estate shares red

* Oil and Nat Gas up on war and weather

Breadth

* 588 new highs

* 140 new lows

* 51% advancing 43% declining

* 26% below 50 day ma

* 34% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Strong

Weak

$TSLA is 3% of Nasdaq 100 and 1.7% of S&P500. It is becoming the next Blackberry. Hertz is selling off 20k EVs and Tesla cars are 80% of that. Not a huge number but Model 3 from Hertz are listed at $17k. After rebates $14k. Seems everyone including Tesla are cutting prices.

What to watch

Earnings have begun

Watch bitcoin related

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

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