Not Your Advisor

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“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

I want in! How?Instructions:

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

So much to cover today!

CPI data came in hot. The writers for the sell side went into scamble mode.

The bitcoin etfs started trading today and it was messy. $MARA opened up 5% then settled down at the lows. Bitcoin itself hit 49k but sold off.

The sell sides Apex Terminator model came onto CNBC and proclaimed it was likely after the etfs were approved, that each $BTC will reach $1.5m USD!!! Yeh and Gold will be $10M USD per ounce!

There is nothing to smile about in the top 10 holdings of ARKK

The market tried to rally at lunch time. First the $VIX was pummeled but no rally. Then the 10yr was pressured below 4% and that did the trick.

But look at breadth, specifically the NYSE ADV/DEC up down volume as of 3:20pm. It would have told you rallys were to be sold.

COIN which is 10% of ARKK finished at lows of the day. Yet they are supposed to be the custodian for the majority of the approved spot bitcoin ETFs.

10 yr yields closed at lows of the day. It holds the fate of prices.

Breadth

* 424 new highs

* 202 new lows

* 39% advancing 56% declining

* 25% below 50 day ma

* 34% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

10 Yr Yield under pressure

TSLA loses 200 day ma

Strong

Magnificent 6

Weak

What to watch

PPI Fri

Watch Crypto Animal Spirits

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | Google Podcasts | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

Premium Service Preview

“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

Show Notes

Summary of the day

My breadth study has confirmed the initial signal to be defensive. This does not mean sell everything. Or short everything. It is one of my indicators of many, but it has proved reliable with minimal fake outs. And I am saying this as NVDA, META, and GOOGL, are making new highs.

However the day was very bullish, regardless of slow volume on SPY. The hotly anticipated Bitcoin etf finally arrived after hours…I think?! 11 total ETFs. That is a lot of sales and marketing teams all out pitching and selling.

Breadth

* 430 new highs

* 181 new lows

* 53% advancing 42% declining

* 23% below 50 day ma

* 34% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

10 yr yield not yielding

Strong

New Highs for NVDA, META, GOOGL, ISRG, COST, TJX, HD, VRTX, JNPR, MA, V, GE, LLY, KBH, DHI, PHM

Weak

Energy

What to watch

CPI Numbers

Fri PPI

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | Google Podcasts | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

Premium Service Preview

“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

Show Notes

Summary of the day

You can’t make this up.

On the eve if the spot bitcoin etf approval, I wanted to share a reminder…when someone says any 1 unit of measure for a speculative vehicle will go to $1m USD by a certain date…run!

Saylor “You do not sell your bitcoin!” (until I sell 1st)

Cathie “Bitcoin Will Be $1 Million per Coin by 2030”

Breadth

* 194 new highs

* 172 new lows

* 28% advancing 68% declining

* 23% below 50 day ma

* 34% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Strong

Weak

What to watch

CPI Thu

PPI Fri

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | Google Podcasts | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

Premium Service Preview

“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

Show Notes

Summary of the day

Skipping #113 to avoid bad luck

Strong rally all day

Lots of anticipation for spot bitcoin ETF approval this week

Breadth

* 240 new highs

* 173 new lows

* 72% advancing 24% declining

* 21% below 50 day ma

* 33% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

10 yr yield fought back to close above 4%

It’s all about the Bitcoins

Strong

Weak

Energy

What to watch

animal spirits for spot bitcoin etf

CPI data Thu

PPI Fri

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | Google Podcasts | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

Premium Service Preview

“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

Show Notes

Summary of the day

A pullback to the 50 day ma for $SPX would be normal and still maintain bullish momentum. Keep watching yields. Under 4.5% is good. Over 4.5% is bad.

Trade setup

I wanted to share a freebie trade setup. This is a preview of the type of technical setups I wll share from my observations of hundreds of charts and companies per day.

$ARKK. Most will know this stock as ARK Investment Management LLC, managed by Cathie Woods. She is usually a regular on CNBC talking her book. The entire holdings of $ARKK are here.

Top 10 below:

Perfect setup whether you are bullish or bearish. Defined risk, defined stops. Offers initiative trade expectations. If you got in on Dec 13, 2023, it offered a nice pop for a trade. You could have easily sold for profit before the New Yrs eve party.

ARKK today:

It is currently offering a similar balance area to watch and trade. If you are bullish in the market and thus bullish on $ARKK, as it has performed very well in line with QQQ, you can go long or buy options as it breaks up initiatively out of this range.

If you are bearish the market or ARKK you can sell short or buy options as it breaks initiatively down out of this new range.

Each trade offers an attractive risk reward and areas to put in stops.

Even better, ARKK is also in a state of back testing a breakout from a huge basing pattern. It will either back test and go up, or backtest and fail. The least likely scenario is that it will chop for a long time.

Another example of this setup can be seen if you travel with me in my time machine. $SNPS Synopsys is a company not many people have heard of.

Synopsys is an American electronic design automation company based in Mountain View, California that focuses on silicon design and verification, silicon intellectual property and software security and quality.

If you bought the multi-year range breakout on Dec 2, 2013 at $37, you would be up 1,200% today. Sure, not as great as $NVDA at 13,000%, but it was an still is a non stop elevator ride.

Initiative trades coming out of a balance areas in either direction, are what you should be hunting.

Hope you enjoyed this preview of one type out of many setups that my Premium service will focus on, in addition to continued education!

Breadth

* 148 new highs

* 130 new lows

* 47% advancing 47% declining

* 22% below 50 day ma

* 34% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

10 Yr is 4.03%.

Russell was weakest but indices didn’t move much.

Strong

KRUS up 17% on earnings. Might be over extended.

Weak

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | Google Podcasts | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

Premium Service Preview

“Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to learn how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

* 10 yr at 4%

* Closed at the lows of the day

* We have lost almost all of the Fed Pivot Santa rally since Dec 13

Breadth

* 165 new highs

* 121 new lows

* 40% advancing 55% declining

* 21% below 50 day ma

* 35% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

The Hughes Center next to the Sphere in Las Vegas is in special servicing or default. Owned by $BX Blackstone. There are a few others noted in this video.

#CRE

#REALESTATE

Strong

10 Yr

Healthcare

Financial

Weak

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | Google Podcasts | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

Premium Service Preview

“"Honesty in a sea of deception is of great value” - Ralph (Pledged)“I like your in-depth analyses of the markets as well as pointing out what might lurk underneath that could rise up to bite us” - Sorell (Pledged)—“Your Wrap on the markets every day keeps me focused and grounded” - Lj (Pledged)—"I want to lean how to read the market for longer term trades as opposed to what Wall Street wants me to do” G.M (Pledged)—"I like your objective view on the markets” Ron P (Pledged)—"Good info. Succinct and relevant. Very good calls this month.” Andy J. (Pledged)

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

* Over time you will develop ability to analyze the markets and become more comfortable making your own decisions and controlling your own wealth

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

* Enter your information on a page that looks like below

Show Notes

Summary of the day

They picked on $AAPL yesterday. Today was $TSLA turn.

Russell 2000 leads down

Sell off all day. Lunch algo’s tried to fight back.

I sent out an alert at 2:51pm via Notes that the buying looked weak:

And on cue the selloff continued

Go check out the M3 market report by Melody Wright 👇🏘#housing

Breadth

* 113 new highs

* 102 new lows

* 23% advancing 73% declining

* 21% below 50 day ma

* 34% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Energy was the only sector up

Bitcoin lost it’s mojo

Strong

Volatility

USD

10yr is trying to get above 4%

Weak

Russell 2000

Real Estate related

Consumer Cyclical

Tech

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | Google Podcasts | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

Premium Service Preview

I want to thank the 2000+ Subscribers who support the Substack!

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content viewable in daily show notes for Premium subscribers

* Complimentary PDF copy of the upcoming book "The Maverick Investor's Handbook" by Bill Cara, one of my mentors. (a $20 value but priceless learnings).*This book is geared toward longer time frame investors, Baby Boomers retiring who want to manage their own 401k/wealth, and younger investors trying to avoid the #YOLO gambling

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

* Enter your information on a page that looks like below

Show Notes

Summary of the day

What a crazy New Years Eve. Earthquakes in Japan and NYC (mini), Epstein client list coming out, etc.

But the day was fairly weak on wall st. The NQ chart summarizes it nicely

And here is the 10 yr via $TNX

The S&P futures has already lost 50% of the Fed Pivot pop from Dec 13

Breadth

* 219 new highs

* 79 new lows

* 35% advancing 62% declining

* 18% below 50 day ma

* 32% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

10 yr bouncing

Strong

Weak

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Watch inflationary signals

Watch if yields decouple from USD

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | YouTube | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

33% Discount Ends Jan 1, 2024.

It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,800+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content

* Timing: promotion good through Jan 1, 2024

I want in! How?Instructions:

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* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

That was fun! Selling was furious and there was no real trigger.

Other than we are way overbought. This also why I advise people to not pursue 1 day or 0 day options. If you were long 0dte at lunch time, how do you recover?

I know everyone is drunk on green every day for weeks. But this is a time to be fearful. To lighten up. I have been banging the table that insurance was basically free up until today.

Outside Day

A chart pattern where the high is above the previous day's high and the low is below the previous day's low.

Outside Reversal Day

A two-day chart pattern that can indicate a reversal in trend. Like with outside days, the second day's high must be above the previous day's high, while the low must be below the previous day's low. In addition, the second day must close in the opposite direction of the previous trend (e.g. in an uptrend, the second day must close down). This pattern is similar to the engulfing candlestick pattern, but requires the entire range (high and low) to be engulfed, not just the open and close.

Breadth

* 1202 new highs

* 186 new lows

* 21% advancing 75% declining

* 21% below 50 day ma

* 34% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

2:42pm the wheels started coming off. I posted real time right before. $VOLD began to fall and never stopped.

Strong

$VIX

Google up dispite it all

Weak

What to watch

Inflation and inflation sensitive areas

Ie Oil Gold USD $DXY yields etc

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple | YouTube | AmazonFollow me on Substack Notes

33% Discount Ends Jan 1, 2024.

It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,800+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content

* Timing: promotion good through Jan 1, 2024

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

* Enter your information on a page that looks like below

Show Notes

Summary of the day

Holiday break. Will share a few best of starting this Wednesday. If anything crazy happens I will email or hop on the mic.

Bulls in control via Mag 7

What to watch overnight into Tue. Bank of Japan conclude meeting Tue. Will they actually crush the Yen carry trade? Will they allow Yen to rise? Or continue to bow down to the west?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-focus-japans-progress-hitting-price-goal-2023-12-18/

Breadth

* 841 new highs

* 168 new lows

* 48% advancing 46% declining

* 22% below 50 day ma

* 35% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Real estate taking breather

VIX fighting

Strong

mostly everything

Weak

What to watch

Bank of Japan

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.