Not Your Advisor

Are you Sarah Connor?

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

$SPY Yearly high. Sneeze from lifetime

XHB New lifetime high

Jerome Powell is losing the war on inflation.

No one believes he will be vigilant enough to reach a 2% inflation rate.

We are very overbought

Expect a pullback

The real question is, will there be more upside before Jan 1?

Gold is signaling higher prices and USD risking going lower

Breadth

* 769 new highs

* 121 new lows

* 80% advancing 15% declining

* 24% below 50 day ma

* 41% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

AFRM is up 400% this yr. Normal?

And here is Michael Pento throwing a cold shower on the exuberence. Never miss great content by following Adam’s Substack

* March may be an explosive month. Repo facility will be running dry along with treasury liquidity

* 1.8T of corporate debt needs to rollover at current higher rates in next 12-18 months

Strong

Weak

USD

Yields

What to watch

Watch Yields

Watch mag 7

FED TALK

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

If you haven’t seen Spirited on Apple TV, I highly recommend for holidays. But as I push through this flu or cold, my general mood when people speak to me in public is summed up perfectly by the movies “Good afternoon” skit.

It basically means…

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Great bullish day for the Dow. Broke above the august highs. I saw it as rotation all day, until the last 15 minutes

Nasdaq tried to recover at close but Mag 7 was down all day

Real pimple is 10 year yield which is putting up a fight.

$VIX looks dead but I believe that is a warning for bulls. VIX isn’t going to zero

Breadth

* 287 new highs

* 152 new lows

* 52% advancing 42% declining

* 28% below 50 day ma

* 46% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

NQ was weak all day along with RTY but everything rallied into close

Yields not giving up the fight

Strong

Weak

Volatility

What to watch

Jerome Powell speaks two times on Friday!

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

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33% Discount Ends Nov 27th.

It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,700+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Mixed bag

Breadth improved

10 yr fought back

Breadth

* 549 new highs

* 149 new lows

* 59% advancing 35% declining

* 29% below 50 day ma

* 47% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Mag 7 were weak

Strong

Weak

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

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Photos from Milan

Please share your stories from the Holiday Break in the comments :)

Show Notes

Summary of the day

Another low volume slow burner.

Breadth

* 305 new highs

* 172 new lows

* 50% advancing 44% declining

* 30% below 50 day ma

* 50% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

TSLA up 4%

Strong

Consumer Cyclical

Risk on stocks that are usually heavily shorted.

Here is a sampling

Weak

10 yr yield

Healthcare

KHOV

DIS

PJT

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

No Podcast Covering market sessions from Thu Nov 16 - Tue Nov 21.

Does this sound like ‘Let’s be friends”?

"I value our conversation because I think it's paramount that you and I understand each other clearly, leader to leader, with no misconceptions or miscommunication," Biden said.

"It is unrealistic for one side to remodel the other, and conflict and confrontation has terrible consequences for both sides," he said. "The world at large is big enough for the two countries to succeed." Xi said.

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

DOW was strongest

Yields awake

Positive breadth

Closed a little tepid

Breadth

* 418 new highs (3.5x)

* 121 new lows

* 56% advancing 39% declining

* 34% below 50 day ma

* 55% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Tech weakest

NVDA MSFT META red

Strong

Weak

Housing profit taking

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

YOLO = YOU ONLY LIVE ONCE

HODL = HOLD ON FOR DEAR LIFE

Podcast Available on

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It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,300+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

ALL of the ingredients are there for Santa. Get your cookies and Milk ready.

The Russell 2000 was up 5.4% today!!!

It took Santa 2 weeks to to do what took months in the summer.

Xmas is still over 1 month away, so a lot can still happen.

Before today there was a 15% chance The Fed would hike in December. Today, after the CPI the data shows no chance of a December rate hike.

The narrative sold today is inflation is dead and we are now waiting for rate cuts.

I don’t believe it will be that easy. New bull markets don’t start like a V.

Breadth

* 477 new highs

* 179 new lows

* 84% advancing 12% declining

* 36% below 50 day ma

* 56% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Yields and VIX stopped going down in the morning while markets rallied all day

Strong

EVERYTHING

GDX up 4.77% with USD rising and yields falling

Weak

Not much other than bearish positions and etfs. Insurance is free!

What to watch

Watch breadth

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

If you have never seen “A Quiet Place” I recommend highly. Here is the trailer

Schedule Alert: No Podcast Fri Nov 17 - Tue Nov 21

I will be online but in a different time zone taking a short break. I will be posting via Substack Notes occasionally, so please follow me there.

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It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,300+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Everyone is waiting for government reported CPI numbers.

* cpi beats, implies Fed is not done higher for longer

* cpi falls, implies inflation is moderating and Fed will become teddy bear vs grizzly

Breadth

* 178 new highs

* 330 new lows

* 45% advancing 48% declining

* 56% below 50 day ma

* 66% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Very quiet day

Strong

Energy

Healthcare

Consumer Defensive

Weak

Utilities

Real Estate

Tech (minus Mag 7)

What to watch

CPI data Tue morning

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Where do I begin?

* Megacaps Mag 7 rallied hard

* Meanwhile yields also rallied from Thursday selloff

* Breadth still produced more new lows

* It’s end of year and everyone is racing to max their bonuses

* Put Options are cheap!

And then at 4:36pm after trading has closed, Moody’s downgrades America! Leaving all the buyers this week holding the bag.

They waited as long as they could with that headline/downgrade. It will be interesting to see what happens to the USD and currencies on Sunday.

Hey maybe this downgrade goes overlooked thanks to seasonality. Or… The USD cracks down on the downgrade along with bond prices. Thus sending yields up and risk down.

Breadth

* 189 new highs

* 488 new lows (2.5x!)

* 67% advancing 27% declining

* 57% below 50 day ma

* 67% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Yields fought back all day while everything was rallying

Strong

Tech outperformance

MSFT is in Dow, nasdaq and s&p. Was up big. Atlas shrugged

Weak

GM and anything EV car related

AFRM

KRUS

VFS

CVNA

What to watch

Tue CPI pre market

Wed VIX expiry

Fri options expiry

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

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Special Promotion Announcement

It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,300+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Yields Yields Yields!

The bond auction this afternoon was very very tepid. Low demand means lower prices to attract buyers. Lower bond prices results in higher yields. That was the sell off in the afternoon in a nutshell.

1pm circled

Apparently Jerome Powell had hawkish comments at the IMF panel today (which I haven’t watched).

Danielle DiMartino Booth was interviewed today regards to Powell and I love how she refers to his “Dirty Harry” alter ego.

So sad that the global financial markets are at the whims of one man and one organizations decisions on rates.

Breadth

* 122 new highs

* 429 new lows

* 21% advancing 74% declining

* 66% below 50 day ma

* 69% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Was flat until the afternoon

TSLA and GOOG are below 50 daythe rest of Magnificent 7 are above

TSLA is the only mag 7 under its 200 day

Strong

AFRM

DIS

VIX

COIN

KGC

Weak

Anything sensitive to higher interest rates. Which is basically everything…

Here is just a sampling…

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

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Special Promotion Announcement

It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,300+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

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Show Notes

Off topic recommendation:

I finished “Blue Eye Samaurai” on Netflix yesterday and I urge you to check it out. Not safe for children as some episodes have sexual explicit content. If you love great animation, great underdog story, history buff of Edo Japan, or Samurai, run and see it.

Here is a free full episode:

Rated Mature. Gore and sexual situations.

Summary of the day

9:55am this bounce is getting very stretched. Rather than a light pullback or sideways consolidation, we risk a sharp pullback

12:07pm hm rare lunchtime selloff. Usually the algos are in buy mode.

2:15pm Unless Breadth picks up, I would be suspicious of any bounces.

3:45pm $SPY vol is half of avg daily! 47m vs 83m. $QQQ volume is also down 30%

3:55pm If yields and oil bounce hard before turkey day…just a hunch

LZ from slopeofhope.com

Translation…Mega cap tech holding up the world

Breadth

* 130 new highs

* 278 new lows

* 38% advancing 57% declining

* 57% below 50 day ma

* 67% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Low volume again

Yields down

Oil down

Stocks should be up a lot higher

Something tells me big sell off sooner than later

Strong

Big tech

Real estate

Weak

What to watch

Jerome Powell on panel at IMF 2pm ET, Thursday

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.