Not Your Advisor

Battle of Austerlitz

By 2 o’clock, the Coalition centre had ceased to exist, and its army was broken in two. The French masse de décision swung to the south. Too late, Buxhöwden attempted to extricate his men. By 3 o’clock, the Allied line was breaking up, thousands of men fleeing to the south, towards the frozen lakes on the edge of the battlefield. Napoleon ordered up 25 cannon to smash the ice on Lake Satschen. As it broke up, it tipped thousands of Russians into the freezing water beneath; no one is sure how many drowned, but around 2,000 is a likely figure.

Source: https://www.military-history.org/feature/the-battle-of-austerlitz-napoleons-masterpiece.htm

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

The Ice is getting thinner each day.

Strong day. But breadth makes me pause.

only 2 of the Mag 7 are above the 50 day after Alphabet reported

Breadth

* 43 new highs

* 545 new lows

* 66% advancing 28% declining

* 81% below 50 day ma

* 74% below 200 day ma

Stuck out

Meta and MSFT are only Magnificent 7 trading above the 50 day ma

Breadth is still bad

Financials still bad

Leading sector was Utilities

Strong

Weak

Breadth

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Earnings

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

* Dow and Russell lost all of the pop

* S&P lost half the pop

* Nasdaq lost 1/3 of the pop

* Breadth was flat then weak into close

* Today was simply a deadcat bounce trying to toy with the 200 day ma

* markets in trouble until breadth isnt horrendous like today and every past day

Breadth

* 45 new highs

* 1,310 new lows!!!

* 30% advancing 65% declining

* 83% below 50 day ma

* 73% below 200 day ma

Stuck out

We closed 1 pt away from my prediction of 4240 on ES

Strong

Define strong? a few mega caps were up 1% to hold the markets up

Weak

Financials

Real estate

Energy

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Earnings

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

* Worse than last week’s Friday the 13th!

* 8am Fri I posted: I would be surprised if there isn't some rally attempt. After all it is vix crush Friday. 4335 ES is where I think it would run out of gas if there is am attempt. But if we break 4240. Wowzer

* It was an ugly ugly day

Breadth

* 27 new highs

* 1006 new lows

* 24% advancing 71% declining

* 82% below 50 day ma

* 85% below 200 day ma

Stuck out

Equal weight s&p and nasdaq looks horrible

Yields look like they want to continue higher

Tsla is being sold hard

Charts

Strong

Volatility

Yields

Weak

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch Earnings

Watch yields

Geopolitical Conflicts

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

This is how our economy has worked since the dot-com crash. S**t might be catching up with the Fed

TSLA is about to test the 200 day ma. If this breaks there is no telling when buyers will step up.

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Tight range developed in the morning

Jerome Powell was scheduled to speak at the NY Economic forum at 12 noon. The markets roared higher even before he was speaking. I suspect a massive fakeout. Chart below was taken 12:03pm. The live feed to his speach was also suffering from audio issues. But who cares as it was all prepared remarks anyway.

12:13pm TSLA down 8.88%!

12:17pm climate protesters disrupted the start of Powells speech.

12:23 prepared remarks end. And q&a starts

And the pop is gone during his q&a

Breadth

* 50 new highs

* 960 new lows

* 19% advancing 76% declining

* 80% below 50 day ma

* 73% below 200 day ma

Stuck out

Whipsaw city all day

Closed at the lows of the day

Strong

Yields

Volatility

Weak

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Earnings

Geo-political risk

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

* TSLA closed at 242.50. Down 4.8% on day ahead of earnings after market. TSLA had a big miss on cashflow.

“It's an amazing product but I do want to emphasize that there will be enormous challenges in reaching volume production with the Cybertruck and then in making the Cybertruck cash flow positive,” Musk said during Tesla’s earnings call on Wednesday.

“While I think this is potentially our best product ever — I think it is our best product ever — it is going to require immense work to reach high-volume production and be cash flow positive at a price that people can afford.”

* NFLX closed at. Down 2.69% on day ahead of earnings after market. Price increases coming on subscriptions

* Transports sort of crashed

* JB hunt down after earnings

* CAT down big

* PCLN down big

* LTCN down big after hours after earning

* MS down big new yearly lows

* GS gave back all of earnings pop. New yearly lows

* BLK close to new yearly lows

* broader markets red open and sold off all day

* Posted below at 9am

* DONT MISS: Citadel LLC’s Battle with the SEC: What You Need to Know. By Bill Cara

* 10 yr yield 4.9%

* Leaked recording by LEN executive

“The cost of buying down rates has tripled and we have to keep doing this.”

“Private builders are under tremendous stress”

“We are promising 10% increase in volume when our competitors have not given you that commitment”

“Asking all partners to take less to pass the savings to customers”

“We have a lot of land”

youtube.com/live/sBtEqiYpQR4

* Closed at the day lows

* NVDA and TSLA being sold off hard

* 3:10pm

Breadth

* 70 new highs

* 619 new lows

* 17% advancing 78% declining

* 78% below 50 day ma

* 70% below 200 day ma

Stuck out

All day controlled heavy selling

Strong

Yields

Volatility

Weak

All sectors red except Energy

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Earnings

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

$NVDA HAS LOST OVER 100 BILLION in market cap the last 48 hours. All AI chips by U.S. co are banned from being sold to China. Calling $410. If that doesn’t hold, $338.

We were very very close to testing the falling 50 day moving avg today on $SPY . Could that be as close as we get? Will be gather enough oomph to pierce it? Prices ran back from the area at 2pm today.

I had shared at 10:58am

Headlines this morning

* Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, much stronger than estimate

* Goldman Sachs tops estimates on stronger-than-expected bond trading

* Bank of America tops profit estimates on better-than-expected interest income

* Johnson & Johnson beats on earnings and hikes outlook as medtech, pharmaceutical sales surge

Breadth

* 125 new highs

* 320 new lows

* 55% advancing 39% declining

* 72% below 50 day ma

* 66% below 200 day ma

Stuck out

Semi conductors

Tested $1 away from 50 day on spy and sold off

Strong

Weak

Semiconductors

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

“CVS, Walgreens and Rite Aid are closing thousands of stores. Here’s why”

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/16/business/drug-stores-closing-rite-aid-cvs-walgreens/index.html

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

* As I have stated we have a date with the 50 day MA sooner or later this week

* Rite Aid has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

* Strong rally across the board from 10am through the afternoon. The hopes of a positive resolution to the conflict in Israel and potential cease fire in exchange for hostages.

* At 2pm breadth was negative despite the rally. 87 new highs vs 286 new lows.

* Some charts

* Equal weight S&P about to trigger bearish ma cross

AAPL struggling with the 50 day

* 2:12pm 10 yr still too bullish

* Next fart launches $VIX

* $ITB looks like it will fall into the abyss

* I still see oil above $110

Breadth

* 96 new highs

* 321 new lows

* 69% advancing 26% declining

* 75% below 50 day ma

* 67% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Yields were green. $TNX up 1.75%

Strong

Every sector was green

Weak

Volatility down 10.9% giving up a lot of the gains from Friday

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Earning

s

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

33 Liberty Street (NY Federal Reserve Building)

From their website…

The 22-floor, limestone and sandstone headquarters of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York contrasts sharply with the neighboring steel and glass skyscrapers of the Manhattan’s downtown financial district.

Architecturally, the building is reminiscent of the Italian Renaissance period, featuring a robust palazzo design recalling the appearance of Florentine banking houses and elements of Florentine palazzos such as the Strozzi Palace and the Palazzo Vecchio.

The Bank’s 20th century American designers, like their 15th century Italian predecessors, sought a structural expression of strength, stability and security. These planners intended to inspire public confidence in the recently formed Federal Reserve System through the architecture.

Another example of empty castles and skulls comes from a post by Paul Krugman. He says if you take out food, energy, shelter and cars, that there is no inflation. Lol.

It is like saying 1+1+1-3=3 *if you don't count the 3? And this man has won a Pulitzer prize for economics!

This is how math works at the top of the pryamid to keep boots on our necks.

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1712494317024026761

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Show Notes

Summary of the day and week

Friday the 13th Delivered! So much to cover today. I warned this morning that something smelled fishy and only the magnificent 7 were green while breadth was very weak. I then checked the equal weight Nasdaq and it was testing the 50 day ma already. While the equal weight S&P had not even reached it’s 50 day. Then I looked at VIX and saw it was rallying hard despite the market being fairly flat and the bullish earnings reports of JPM, C, WFC and BLK.

Here is the actual Substack note:

Breadth

* 66 new highs

* 502 new lows (7.6 x times!)

* 34% advancing 60% declining

* 79% below 50 day ma

* 70% below 200 day ma

Stuck out

The VIX exploded higher 15% today disproportionately to the selloff. You would think the Dow was down 1,000 points. At one point the VIX was up over 20%.

Strong

Gold

Volatility

Weak

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch Energy

Watch yields

Geopolitical Risk and new confrontations

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Hank Paulson has a demonic laugh! Homeboy almost falls off his chair!

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Selloff after CPI report. Then an attempt to bounce into lunch. Then the 1pm woosh lower.

10:34am

* Equal weight sp500 down $RSP

* Russell 2k down

* Breadth volume nil

* Means Mag 7 are once again holding things up

All things real estate down

1pm Massive selloff

Apparently the culprit to the 1pm selloff was an ugliest 30Y auction in many years, and the market reacted accordingly with yields surging to session highs. The 10Y rose almost 20bps from session lows to 4.70% in seconds

then look at volume breadth at 3:59pm

Breadth

* 96 new highs

* 504 new lows (5x more)

* 18% advancing 77% declining

* 79% below 50 day ma

* 69% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

The nature of the selloff had conviction

Strong

Volatility

Yields

Weak

All recent IPOs seeking new bag holders like Birkenstock

What to watch

JPM WFC C & BLK all report Fri before the bell

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

A real life Armageddon style mission launches in 2 days. A trip to a giant metal Asteroid Psyche16. A testament to the positive that Humans can accomplish, in contrast to the horrors!

If you have never seen the Bruce Willis movie Amageddon, run and go see it on streaming.

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Wait and see day after PPI and FOMC minutes from Sep meeting

Everyone wants to see the CPI

We are approaching the 50 day ma. Let’s see what happens next?

Breadth

* 101 new highs

* 248 new lows

* 53% advancing 41% declining

* 75% below 50 day ma

* 66% below 200 day ma

Stuck out

still more new lows than new highs. 2.5x times

Strong

SPT 3.34%

ADBE 3.23%

KGC 2.70%

PHM 2.25%

NVDA 2.20%

AFRM 2.18%

Weak

CART -7.36%

VIX -5.52%

HOV -4.23%

TBT -4.02%

ZM -3.66%

KYVO -3.34%

CVNA -3%

COIN - 2.85%

What to watch

CPI and reaction Thu 8:30am

Friday 4 big financials report earnings premarket. JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citi and Blackrock

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.