Not Your Advisor

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon Music

Follow on Substack Notes

Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

“https://nyugrad.substack.com?r=1ec55c”

* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

Today was so exciting that the top news story in America was the budding new romance between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce.

Breadth

* 95 new highs

* 759 new lows

* 47% advancing 49% declining

* 79% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Strong

ARM +6%

TBT +5%

CAVA +4.95%

KYVO +3.8%

TNX +2.34%

SQ +1.97%

Weak

VFA -10.43%

CVNA -4.14%

RRR -2.37%

What to watch

Jerome Powell 4pm Thursday

Sept 21 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will host a town hall with educators on Sept. 28 that will also be webcast live, and he will take questions from the audience, the central bank said on Thursday.

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Thanks for reading NYUGrad Stocks and Finance! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon Music

Follow on Substack Notes

Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

“https://nyugrad.substack.com?r=1ec55c”

* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the week

* VIX up 30%

* Russell 2000 down 3.8%

* Nasdaq Composite down 3.6%

* Nasdaq 100 down 3.3%

* S&P 500 down 2.9%

* Dow down 1.9%

Summary of the day

* Magnificent 7 are all under their 50 day moving averages

* UAW says it is prepared to strike for ‘months’ in leaked messages

* They tried to rally mid day but that bounce failed miserably and closed near lows

Breadth

* 69 new highs

* 573 new lows

* 41% advancing 54% declining

* 79% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Yields were down a little on Friday, and yet risk was sold. Not a very good sign

$ITB is relatively overprices in context of Housing starts. the two have been in lock step since 2006. There is a massive divergence and this will resolve one way or another.

Strong

CRUDE OIL

$EXTR

Weak

AFRM -5%

COIN -4.65%

AI -4.44%

TSLA -4.23%

DKNG -3.3%

ROKU -3.29%

FRPT -3.17%

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Chart Gallery

Thanks for reading NYUGrad Stocks and Finance! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon Music

Follow on Substack Notes

Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

“https://nyugrad.substack.com?r=1ec55c”

* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

BOOOM!

Lot’s of destruction the past 48 hours

Breadth

* 41 new highs

* 723 new lows

* 18% advancing 78% declining

* 79% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

at 1pm, I noted in the am session that the Breadth and volume of breadth looked very controlled and steady today. Not panicked like Thursday. And that my eyes were telling me that we could be closing near the lows today.

“Compare the complexion of the down volume from yesterday. Today is steady consistent selling. Yesterday was a panic spike. My eyes say we close near lows today.”

The close

Strong

Yields

Volatility

Weak

Everything else

What to watch

Where is the 150 day and 200 day below. Will we bounce now or keep selling to meet those ares?

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon Music

Follow on Substack Notes

Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

“https://nyugrad.substack.com?r=1ec55c”

* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

* Powell took away the baseline case of a soft landing

* There is more yays for Nov rate hike than nays

* IPO $ARM $CART $KYVO are all red from ipo pop

* We will likely continue with higher rates for longer

If 437 breaks, we will head down to that blue box area

Breadth

* 105 new highs

* 351 new lows

* 29% advancing 66% declining

* 74% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Tech leads down

Strong

Volatility

Yields

$SG

Weak

Everything

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

If you have never seen Dumb and Dumber, please go treat yourself!

“There is no sin except stupidity.”-Oscar Wilde

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon Music

Follow on Substack Notes

Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

“https://nyugrad.substack.com?r=1ec55c”

* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

There is some debate if Rothschild was attributable to this quote, “Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws".

But whoever did utter these words, they were correct.

The selloff got reversed somewhat into the close. The DOW was down over 300 pts during the day. The Nasdaq was down over 100 at one point, but closed down only 32 points.

The Magnificent 7 saved the day from getting much worse. How sad is it that the worlds economy rests on the whims of 1 man who controls the fate of rates and monetary policy.

If you are new to trading or were too young to trade 15 years ago during the Great Financial Crisis, here is a blast from the past, when our Fed began the journey to zero.

There was a report that Elon Musk told Benjamin Netanyahu that X/Twitter is considering charging ALL users a monthly subscription fee in efforts to rid the platform of bots. The theory is it cost fraudsters a few cents to create bots. If that cost increases to above and beyond a subscription fee, there wouldn’t be an ROI for them anymore. Chris’s Substack Hamish McNeilly I just hope that doesn’t push the trash off X and onto other platforms.

Play by play

10:30am It took very little down volume to crack the market. Look At breadth and volume of breadth to see if this selloff is a fakeout or early selling.

Oil and 10 yr

12:35pm a lot of hoopla regarding Instacart ipo ticker CART. They are expecting trading to open at $42.61? A 40 percent rise in the intended offering price. A warning to the public…all ipo’s eventually fall back to the ipo price. 1 session, 10 days, 10 yrs…eventually it always does.

See ARM.

Klavio goes public later today. My hunch is they are desperately coming to public markets.

Breadth

* 114 new highs

* 402 new lows

* 34% advancing 60% declining

* 72% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

1pm someone pressed the buy button on the Magnificent 7. They all fought back hard into the close

CART closed up 12% on the IPO but down 23% from the 1st hour pop!

ARM recent semi-conductor ipo, (2nd time btw) down 4.88%

Strong

LYFT +3.3%

ETSY +2.96%

KRUS +2.59%

CROX +2.35%

Weak

CVNA - 8.57%

SG -6.67%

COIN -4.26%

DKNG -3.7%

DIS -3.62%

HOV -3.57%

CAVA -3.08%

SQ -2.83%

MGM - 2.71%

What to watch

Wednesday 2pm FED Rate decision

Wednesday 2:30pm Jerome Powell speaks in front of a microphone and will hem and haw

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon Music

Follow on Substack Notes

Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

“https://nyugrad.substack.com?r=1ec55c”

* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

This will be a short episode as the world waits for fed rate ramblings on Wed.

But I do want to share with you this clip which resonates with me so much as a trader.

When you hear systems or books or gurus say you need to resolve yourself of all emotions and trade like a robot, that is almost impossible to do. It is much more plausible to be objective with your own emotions, but to do that in trading you must have the time and space to think and master yourself. All while you navigate down river in your boat in a sea of other traders emotions.

Breadth

* 102 new highs

* 376 new lows

* 37% advancing 57% declining

* 71% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Yields remain elevated

S&P500 is still hanging out just underneath the 50 day

Oil prices matter.

look at the Airlines

SAVE -2.9%

ALK -1.49

HA -2.64

LUV -2%

JBLU -5.84

AAL - 1.58%

UAL - 2.28%

DAL -2.51%

Strong

AFRM 2.63%

LEN 2%

SNPS 1.7%

Weak

JBLU -5.63%

SHOP -4.6%

ARM -4.53%

LYFT -4%

KRUS -3.84

TSLA -3.32%

CAVA -2.99%

SQ -2.99%

DAL -2.53%

ROKU -2.45%

What to watch

FED rate decision Wed 2pm

Watch yields

Watch oil

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon Music

Follow on Substack Notes

Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

“https://nyugrad.substack.com?r=1ec55c”

* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

Forget a follow through day after a bullish Thursday. This was a massacre. So Wall St seems to have waited for both the CPI and PPI data to be digested and the masses to step back into the waters on Thursday with nothing but sunshine, cocktails and sun cabanas. Only to release their tiger sharks on Friday.

UAW went on strike strategically hitting the U.S. car makers in their most profitable factory locations. The workers are saying that since the bailouts of the automakers during the great financial crisis, they took concessions to help the auto co’s survive. And that since 2008, the auto companies bounced back but have not paid their workers and have left them in 2008 conditions. The workers are asking for more wages, no tiered ramp up on wages, and a 4 day work week.

The car companies are claiming if they give them what they want, they will go bankrupt. The workers are claiming if they get what they want the car companies would still make billions.

Then the backdrop is that this is a sign that workers are facing massive inflation. If the UAW wins, other unions and employees in general will continue to push for higher wages and less work in other industries.

So the narrative from government and the Fed saying that Inflation is not bad, is a lie. You must know and feel this in your own individual lives.

Just look at Crude Oil, it looks like it has a date with $160!!!

The 10 year yield is about to break thru to new highs.

We are only 8% away from lifetime highs. While the market is on wobbly ground, there still remains a chance at headline shock both up or down. Seasonality for end of yr is usually bullish. And 2024 is election yr. Watch yields, mag 7, interest rate sensitive sectors. Exciting and tumultuous week ahead!

Breadth

* 130 new highs

* 325 new lows

* 27% advancing 68% declining

* 69% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

$SMH if this breaks it will be headed to test the 200 day or overshoot and test 120

Strong

Gold and precious metals

Volatility

Yields

Weak

NVDA slices below 50 day, down 3.69%

CVNA -6.55%

BZH -6.20%

ARM -4.47%

KBH -4.25%

ADBE - 4.21%

KRUS -3.80%

TOL -3.5%

HOV -3.11%

SNPS -3.05%

AI -3.05%

SMH -3.03%

CROX -3.01%

I can go on and on and ON

What to watch

Sep 20 Wednesday 2pm NY Rate decision

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon Music

Follow on Substack Notes

Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

“https://nyugrad.substack.com?r=1ec55c”

* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

I can’t help but get the sense we are at the point of the movie before anyone knew of the iceberg. With the majority of the country very hopeful their TSLA and AAPL will remain in good graces.

* The largest IPO of the year was trotted onto the markets today in $ARM, note this is Softbank whose investment track record is not too stellar

* PE 110! Softbank owns 90%

* SPY is 9 points away from 1 yr highs. or 7% from lifetime highs, despite all the economic headwinds I noted for weeks

* Bond prices continue to fall

* Yields and interest rates continue to rise and remain high

* Oil is going much higher

* Russell 2000 led today

* Cup and Handle in play

Breadth

* 174 new highs

* 248 new lows

* 70% advancing 25% declining

* 64% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Oil, Energy, Rates and Yields all rising along with risk assets. This will not last too many sessions

Strong rally, all sectors green

Technology was 2nd to last though

Strong

ARM

CVNA

KMX

COIN

ETSY

Weak

VIX

SG

NFLX

ZG

What to watch

Sep 20, 2pm Fed rate decision and guidance

Watch Mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

I had an audio issue and the audio only goes to 5 min 46 sec. But it was the majority of the content. The only piece that got lost was picked up on the show notes below in the section “Stuck out”.

One note I would like to add is that the indices are just as likely to go to new highs as new lows since its so heavily weighted to a few stocks. We are in the middle of a converging price zone and it seems the main event, as usual, will be the Fed Rate decision Wed Sep 20. That is when the Death Star will either zap the bulls or the bears.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon Music

Follow on Substack Notes

Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

“https://nyugrad.substack.com?r=1ec55c”

* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

On the surface this chart is the entire story for the year. The next chapter starts next week with rate decision and guidance Sep 20 at 2pm ET. As you can see in the chart, we can easily go up to new highs or crack the teal and or purple lines of support below.

For the broader market we are still just stuck 3%-3.5% below this yr high on SPY and QQQQ

Intraday

10:24am Still fighting this line

1:37pm Complexion…risk is being sold while they prop the markets through Mag 7.

86 new highs vs 238 new lows

Breadth and Breadth volume.

Breadth

* 95 new highs

* 308 new lows

* 36% advancing 58% declining

* 71% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Just some macro signs to be weary of

Econ sensitive stocks all rolling over

Industrial, construction, housing, housing related. 

Examples

United Rentals

Parker Hannifin

Builders First Source

Retail group is weak

CA unemployment is picking up. Now 4.6%

Auto loans outstanding 1.5 trillion, a record

Avg home is 3x salary during great depression vs today at 8X

Debt to income ratio for home buyers hit 40%. 1st time in history. In 2008 it was 39%

Breadth is horrible

Megacaps are holding up the world again.

Amazon new yearly highs today

Adobe reports thu.

Strong

AMZN

Weak

NFLX

SG

ZG

HOV

EXTR

ROKU

CVNA

DAL

CROX

AFRM

What to watch

PPI Thu

Watch the mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Thanks for reading NYUGrad Stocks and Finance! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon Music

Follow on Substack Notes

Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

“https://nyugrad.substack.com?r=1ec55c”

* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

Yesterday was nullified and given back

Apple event

* First 35 min focused on Apple Watch

* 20 min for iPhone 15

* 4 min specific for iPhone 15 Pro Titanium

* The most impressive part of the event was the HQ Campus.

Breadth

* 147 new highs

* 290 new lows

* 41% advancing 54% declining

* 70% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Home builders down dispite 10 yr not being green

Strong

VIX

GM

Weak

ORCL down 13.5%

MDB down 5%

SG down 4.5%

CAVA down 4%

ADBE down 3.9%

ROKU down 3.5%

Home buildersMelody Wright has shared a great deep dive, “Down and Dirty” as well as this awesome interview on YouTube

What to watch

CPI wed

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar