Not Your Advisor

Dedicating today’s podcast to Kobe and Gigi Bryant, as today is Mamba Day. A celebration of Mamba Mentality, his life and career.

🙏Dominate in peace Kobe and Gigi!

If you have or haven't heard of Mamba Mentality here is Kobe giving a 2min overview.

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Special shout out and recommended video of Danielle DiMartino Booth and Adam’s Substack.

The small tidbit that @Danielle DiMartino Booth shared so eloquently and how home builders are sitting on a mountain of spec homes that are almost move in ready but not in inventory numbers. Builders are hoping for 2% rates again or they will reclassify those homes to Land in Jan 2024 so they are not taxed on them.

Source: @Melody Wright (Check out her Substack too)

Show Notes

Breadth

* 77 new highs

* 282 new lows

* 72% under 50 day

* 23% adv 73% declining

What stuck out

On Wednesday I opined…

“Tmrw everyone will be talking nvda or jackson hole. No one will be taliking how yields fell today. That gave more tailwinds intraday than any anticipation of nvda.”

In the morning pre market on Substack Notes

9am Watch yields today. And how $NVDA finishes

Dollar index seems sticky strong and now above 200 day ma

$NVDA off the highs at open

All stocks are sold. Pitchmen are out everywhere today on television

10:15am There goes 4444 like butter

Disney $DIS is finished if selling volume picks up.

Noon

Watch 4368 on ES

Strong

Weak

$DLTR dollar tree

$SG Sweetgreen

$ROKU

$COIN

$NFLX

$AI

$AMC down 25%

What to watch

Jerome Powell 10:05am ET Jackson Hole

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Show Notes

Breadth

* 96 New highs

* 228 New lows

* 72% ADV  23% Dec

* 67% under 50 day

I noted on the Tue session that there was a battle between yields and risk assets where both were rising at the same time, and that this had to resolve. 

Thursday, everyone will be talking nvda or jackson hole. No one will be talking how yields fell today. That gave more tailwinds intraday than any anticipation of $NVDA.

Up big after hours. As high as 520.. Settled in at 500

Beat expectations and raised

Noted that $1T TAM in data centers are going through a new cycle of upgrades

* Upgrading to regenerative ai capabilities

* Upgrading tech in general to keep up

Working with VMWare. Name dropped Meta, Google and others

How much of it is priced in?

Jensen Huang, Founder And CEO Of Nvidia Says "A New Computing Era Has Begun. Companies Worldwide Are Transitioning From General-Purpose To Accelerated Computing And Generative AI"

08/23/23 4:21 PM

Nvidia, NVDA approves $25 billion in share buyback.  

Let's see how the earnings call goes and tmrw. Will news be bought or sold? How will price react to overhead ma?    

10 Yr fell today finally, giving some reprieve

Cup and handle measured move could be 4538

Strong

Weak

$FL , $NKE , $PTON

What to watch

* Yields

* Fed speakers at Jackson Hole

* Jerome Powell Friday 10:05am

* $NVDA keep its gains or sell the news?

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“Always two there are, no more no less. A master and an apprentice.” - Master Yoda

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Show Notes

I start with Yoda’s quote because there are two big forces fighting each other the past few sessions.

* Higher Yields and 7.5% 30 year mortgages

* Risk assets in stocks and the fact fewer and fewer names are holding up the world $NVDA and $TSLA for example

Breadth

* 75 New highs

* 329 New Lows

* 36% Adv / 58% Dec

* % under 50 day ma

Up big pre-market

* ES almost got back to test 4444 level overnight Monday into Tuesday

* But the ES and Nasdaq sold off at opening bell

Why do I keep hammering that you should watch breadth? Breadth was weak all morning. And 11:35am indices gave up after sideways action

2pm update

3pm rally attempt. Breath volume seemed weak vs Mondays close. I suspected a selloff.

3:30pm

Rally attempt was a dud

Strong

It was a deceptive sell off day when you compare magnificent 7, vs indices complexion vs breadth.

Weak

See above. bull should be weary of worsening breadth. 70% of shares are under the 50 day ma. (nyse / amex / nasdaq)

What to watch

NVDA reports after close Wed

Fed speakers Thu morning

Jerome Powell Fri 10:05am

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Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure. Building a community with that goal. Let's go get it!

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* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

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* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

We all saw a rare sight today.

* 10 yr yields at decade highs

* Tech and risk assets were strong

* Dollar Strength

Breadth

* 64 New highs

* 337 New lows

* Avd decl 45% 50%

* 70% under 50 day

Strong open. But 10 yr was also up 2%

I noted at 10am all risk assets and the 10 yr cannot go same way for long. Someone was lying. 

10:30 risk assets gave up and started selling off

4 backtests to 4368 area. Defense 

Strong

$NVDA

$TSLA

Weak

Real Estate, Utilities, Consumer Defensive

What to watch

* Resolution to Yields up and Risk assets up

* $NVDA earnings Wed

* Jerome Powell Jackson Hole Fri morning

Chart Gallery

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure. Building a community with that goal. Let's go get it!

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Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform: https://nyugrad.substack.com?r=1ec55c

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Show Notes

Thank you again to all the new members who subscribed recently and are coming from X, Doomberg, and the Substack feature. And a special thanks to the below who introduced themselves on the Substack Chat (Only avail on the Substack app)

* Ethan M coming from WBD podcast/Doomberg (Vancouver)

* Yuri B - Fellow NYU Alum

* Victor AJ in Venezuelan living in Germany

* Dr Fenton also from Vancouver - World traveler and serial entrepreneur

* “Stares Lovingly” - Healthcare professional from humid Florida

Start here links

* For new Subscribers, here is the archive so you can catch up on some popular posts.

* One I highly recommend. “Market Profile for Dummies”

* Daily Podcast

* Substack Notes

Let’s jump into Friday’s session:

Breadth

* 42 new highs

* 377 new lows

* 53% advancing

* 41% declining

* 70% of NYSE AMEX and NAsdaq are under their 50 day moving avgs

What stuck out?

Crypto hard sell off overnight Thursday

Asia red

Broke down premarket 

The open was bought and it was the low of the day. Back-tested 4368 ish twice but held

Yields sill high at 4.25%

Strong

Not much. it was a defensive day and we managed to tread water. The win for the bulls was the open was the low of the day and prices creeped up higher all day

Weak

See above

What to watch

* Wed $NVDA earnings

* Jerome Powell speaks Friday from Jackson Hole, 10:05 ET.

* China weakness and stimulus?

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure. Building a community with that goal. Let's go get it!

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Show Notes

I want to first welcome all the new subscribers who are discovering my Substack after it was featured this week! I am humbled and honored you would share your inbox with me. We run a lean program over here. No fluff. Just the markets in context of both Macro and Micro. I am just warming up!

How the content flows:

* Emails - Daily podcast highlighting what I saw as important, in about 15 min or less. Show Notes like this are exclusively here on Substack. But the podcast can be found on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Amazon Music and YouTube. Releases 5am NY, covering the previous day session.

* Emails - Stock Spotlight (this will eventually be a paid feature where I share premium watchlists for both bullish and bearish scenarios)

* Substack Notes - Like old Twitter but better. This is where intraday thoughts and analysis will live.

* Archive (Sort by New and Top/Most Popular)

* More to come

You can always email me: [email protected]

Breadth

* 47 New highs

* 416 New lows

* 29% advancing

* 66% declining

* 70% below 50 day MA (NYSE AMEX and Nasdaq)

Stuck out

Record 17 yr high in yields this am. 4.3% 10 yr

I stated on Substack Notes in the morning pre open…

Lunchtime bounce. Dollar got a lil weaker. Yields still high at 4.3% at 12:30pm

Afternoon Selloff. No relief for yields

Strong

* $GOOG 1.4%

* CSCO up 3.3%

* $PFE Pfizer up 3.1%

* JNJ 1%

* $BMY 2%

* XOM 1.9%

Weak

* EVERYTHING

* ENERGY WAS ONLY GREEN SECTOR

What to watch

* $NVDA next week Aug 23

* Yields

* Bonds

* USD

* Yen

* Watch for bounces. We are very oversold. If you see a bounce, see how prices react if we can get back to the 50 day ma. If we cannot even get to the 50 day before a selloff, that is bad news for buy the dip crowd

Thanks for reading NYUGrad Stocks and Finance! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure. Building a community with that goal. Let's go get it!

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Show Notes

Your mission if you choose to accept it, is to fight inflation without causing a recession. Good luck Jerome Powell. This message will self destruct in 5 seconds!

Breadth

* 73 new highs

* 421 new lows

* 20% adv 75% declining

* 66% are under the 50 day ma. Not good (NYSE AMEX and Nasdaq)

Stuck out

Premarket was muted but bad Asia session

Open flew higher but dow was up 170 and sold off

Nasdaq lagged

Morning

We touched 4444 as I deducted and bounced. 4444 is the high volume area

10:05am already weakening

Choose your FOMC adventure

By Noon time

12:11PM NY

Full day picture. Not good.

Strong

Short etfs, Volatility

Walmart, Costco, Home depot, TGT

Weak

What to watch

Yields and USD

NVDA earnings Aug 23

Magnificent 7

Moving avgs. 50, 100, 200

Chart Gallery

Thanks for reading NYUGrad Stocks and Finance! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure. Building a community with that goal. Let's go get it!

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Show Notes

Breadth

* 85 new highs

* 341 new lows

* 18% advancing

* 78% declining

Pre market selloff. fought back

The strong retail sales was interpreted as strong consumer, and maybe uncle Powell has to stay higher for longer on rates. 

That was the day in a nutshell. 

12:03pm

Mike Maloney. Video showing rates have never ascended this high as rate of change. Even in 70s. 

Buffet Berkshire buys

* $NVR

* $DHI

* $LEN

Strong

* $EXTR pretty much even

* $NVDA

* $LYFT up 3.78%

* $VIX 10.93%

Weak

* Everything

* All sectors red

* $JPM down

What to watch

FOMC Minutes and reaction on Wed

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…all we can do is smile back.

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure. Building a community with that goal. Let's go get it!

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Show Notes

Here is the original scene from Gladiator, one of my favorite movies. I chose this episode’s thumbnail as a visual double entendre in a world of celebrity worship and social media mania. What is Rome but the mob!

I care not for this battle unless the duel is to the death. But while we wait for this speculative fight, we have a financial market to address.

Breadth

* 98 New highs

* 278 New lows

* 39% advancing

* 56% declining

Red open reversed by 1030am.

Semis pulled up everyone

11:07 feeble bounce

Then at 3:58pm

Strong

$SMH and $NVDA

pretty much everything was up or down approx .8-1%

10 yr yields and mortgages are very high

Weak

What to watch

Thanks for reading NYUGrad Stocks and Finance! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure. Building a community with that goal. Let's go get it!

Available on Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon MusicSubstack Notes

Twitter

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Show Notes

Breadth

* 166 new highs

* 232 new lows

* 37.9% adv

* 57.7% dec

Morning

I noticed $AAPL and $NVDA were really struggling. Shares of safety are doing better like $ABBV. The breadth is telling me we go lower all day.

$EXTR is still green. If you want to learn more about co like $EXTR I invite you to subscribe free…for now. The Stock Spotlight on Extreme Networks will hit your inbox on Friday morning. if you have not subscribed I would love to earn your free subscription.

Noon I posted

Unless you see breadth pick up, take the day off or enjoy a long lunch break.

Note: After CPI we are either breaking below 50day and testing 4444 or we are gonna retest upside 4560

Before the close around 2:30pm NY 👇

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