Not Your Advisor

The Aaron Rodgers Jet’s era begins!

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Bulls cannot complain. Morning weakness turned into a day for the ages on $TSLA. $META also contributed to the party.

9:42 am $NVDA $AAPL selling off

Breadth

* 153 new highs

* 286 new lows

* 56 % advancing 39% declining

* 67% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Consumer Cyclical

Strong

TSLA up 10%

CVNA up 8.2%

AFRM up 4.9%

LYFT up 4.7%

MDB up 4.5%

UBER up 3.6%

AMZN up 3.5%

META up 3.25%

Weak

CAVA down 4.13%

KRUS down 3.44%

ETSY 3.44%

VFS down 3.3%

MGM down 2.3% hacked

What to watch

Tue: Apple iphone produce news

Wed: CPI

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Thanks for reading NYUGrad Stocks and Finance! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Friday was non climactic. Should have stayed in bed.

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Show Notes

You will be listening to this Podcast on or after Monday September 11, 2023. As a New Yorker, today has a gravitas that is even more extreme than as an American. My thanks to all 1st responders and military who jumped into action in the years following. As horrible as that day was, I also have never seen this country and New Yorkers united together aa close as then. Something this country needs again, hopefully not under such horrible forces.

Summary of the Friday session

Overnight we took elevator back down to test 4444 area twice. 5am and 7:45am, setting up intraday double bottom. Prices launched off that.

11:48am snapshot

11:30 heading into EU close prices are bouncing around in 4470s.

$NVDA Weak all morning. Only Mag 7 red by noon.

Vix weak

12:40pm how is the up volume on breadth looking? Weak.

2:55pm just a summation

Actual close

Breadth

* 103 new highs

* 344 new lows

* 46% advancing 48% declining

* 70% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

NVDA and TSLA down

Strong

Energy and Utilities led

Weak

Real Estate and Industrials weak

$VFS

$CAVA

$CROX

What to watch

Apple Event Tue. iPhone 15 announcement

CPI wed

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic Cal

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

YTD laggards outperformed today with Utilities leading (worst performer YTD)

Tech fell most … small caps didn’t see reprieve today even as NQ fell.

Russell 2k continues to lag YTD and MTD

8:38am after falling jobless claims

11:55 AM Pre lunch. $AMZN last mag 7 standing in green

2pm check up. How we doing on volume?

3:28pm. Firms are selling. Breadth stinks. But they are lessening the fall by selling down the $VIX. This won’t work too long.

Breadth

* 65 new highs

* 392 new lows

* 31% advancing 65% declining

* 70% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

$JPM this is a very bad sign.

Strong

$COIN

Housing related bounced today

Volatility was strong but sold off into close

Weak

$VFS down 26%

$AI down 12.4%

$LVS down 5%

$CAVA down 3.57%

$EXTR down 3.47%

$AAPL down 2.92%

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Thanks for reading NYUGrad Stocks and Finance! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Angel number 4444 is certainly a confluence area of high volume. We keep going to it like a magnet. Pray it holds, or we are headed back to 4368 area.

More about the angel number 4444.

Energy and Utilities both advancing.

Tech fell most and continues to under perform

2:30pm Buyers trying

3:52pm. Breadth volume not looking great into close

Breadth

* 85 new highs

* 281 new lows

* 28% advancing 67% declining

* 67% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

$EXTR STRONG relative performance. Was up almost 1% while NQ was down 1.5% at 12:30pm

Strong

$ROKU

$EXTR

$SG

10 yr and yields

Weak

Everything

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Watching the last 15 minutes was like waiting for the boulder to come crashing down!

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

10 yr rising in the am. 4.22% vs 4.1% on Fri.

Builders sell off

Rug pull last 15 min

Breadth

* 150 new highs

* 247 new lows

* 23% advancing 73% declining

* 63.5% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Home builders

Consumers line up to save $5-6 on gas

https://youtube.com/shorts/bFZNZFXE2lE

#airbnbust $ABNB bust update on housing

Types of buyers today

* All cash

* No mortgage on existing home and downsizing

* Millenials who can afford a 5.5% new home builder rate buy down

@Adam Taggart

Watch the 50 day ma

3:55pm rug pull. But if you follow breadth it would have told you mid day that there was weaknes. And it would have kept you out or leaning to the downside.

Magnificent saved thw Nasdaq from a even worse close.

10 year treasury closed near high. Home builders near the lows.

Strong

$ABNB Being added into the S&P 500

$TSLA

Mag 7

Yields

Weak

Broad market

Russell 2000 $IWM

Mid caps $MDY

Bonds

Gold

Financials closed below 50 day ma $XLF

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Volume was comparable leading up to the July 4th holiday weekend = dismal

Breadth

* 204 new highs

* 123 new lows

* 40% advancing 54% declining

* 56% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Mortgage bailouts for financial institutions AGAIN, being discussed already!!!

“US Officials Weigh Pathway to Let More Firms Tap Federal Home Loan Banks  FHFA considers access for nonbank mortgage firms during review  Nonbank mortgage firms currently lack lender of last resort “ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-30/us-officials- weigh-pathway-to-let-more-firms-tap-fhlb-backstop

Strong

$EXTR

$SHOP

$AFRM

Weak

$PLTR

$COIN

$DG Dollar General said inventory piling up

Dollar General reported slowing sales in the recently ended quarter and said its inventory of unsold goods is piling up. The Goodlettsville, Tenn., company said it plans to burn through profit in the second half of the year to reduce inventory and improve performance at its stores. Like other retailers, Dollar General also said it expects store theft to keep rising.

Yields

Volatility

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Fri Non-farm payrolls and unemployment

Watch yields

Crypto (are animal spirits alive?)

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Not much changed

Shout out to

Low volume day. Felt like a holiday. This week is heading into a long weekend and end of month. Look at the volume spike at end of session. Paint the tape defined.

Breadth

* 215 new highs

* 103 new lows

* 56% advancing 39% declining

* 54% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Alert for Subscribers…$KVYO Klaviyo IPO registration could be promising.

I cannot stand marketing automation. Customer engagement should not be automated whether b2b or b2c. But Klaviyo files to go public in latest sign of life for IPO market.

$585M ARR and a small $15M burn! linkedin.com/posts/edchiu_ceo-startups-…

Home Builders up thx to $HOV up 15% on earnings. Raised guidance.

K Hovnanian raised guidance and said expects 20% growth in eps. Sales trends 1H exceeds even the years prior to Covid. (Maybe she has a take on this bullishness?)

Slides: https://khov.gcs-web.com/static-files/803492fe-b081-40cc-99df-747300a67418

Vegas Reid airport sees record number of June passengers; Southwest leads way

And their casinos broke records. 

The state’s 439 licensed casinos won $1.404 billion from players in July, a 6.7 percent increase over a year ago when there were 453 casinos operating.

Strong

Builders up thx to $HOV up 15% on earnings. Raised guidance.

Lyft and uber up

Weak

Vin Fast Auto VFS down 10%

Yields

Volatility

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Florida gulf coast hurricane Idalia

Crypto (are animal spirits alive?)

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Thanks for reading NYUGrad Stocks and Finance! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

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Show Notes

Want to wish subscribers and anyone in west Florida the best with hurricane Idalia coming

Summary of the day

Jobs numbers were printed and revised worse than expected. Interpretation was “yay, Powell kept saying jobs market still too tight and wages sticky high. So bad jobs = more chance of easy money. Let's buy stocks!"

Today was a very strong day and considered a potential follow through day. Usually need a broad participation of many individual shares. Not just 1 group or magnificent 7.

But it doesn’t mean it is guaranteed. One thing we are critically missing is increase in volume.

William O'Neil’s definition:

A follow-through day occurs during a market correction when a major index closes significantly higher than the previous day, and in greater volume. It happens Day 4 or later of an attempted rally. Leading up to a follow-through day, an attempted rally takes place during a downtrend when a major index closes with a gain. The rally attempt continues intact as long as the index doesn't make a new low.

Breadth

* 162 new highs

* 141 new lows

* 77% advancing 18% declining

* 56% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

The 50 day ma backtest has happened across the board.

Yields fell today. 

On Monday basic materials led. Today tech was strong

AAPL, TSLA,  MSFT, AMZN,  META all under or kissing 50 day

Goog and NVDA only 2 of 7 above

Reminder this is end of month. Historically end of month has been strong as that is when statements are emailed. 

3 day weekend, 4 day weekend for many. 5 day weekend for some. So expect low volume. 

Strong

Weak

Yields

Volatility

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Florida gulf coast hurricane Idalia

Crypto (are animal spirits alive?)

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

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Show Notes

**Monday was a UK Bank holiday

OPEN AI releasing a enterprise version if Chat GPT

Tesla new version of FSD

Breadth

* 114 New highs

* 186 New lows

* 69% advancing 25% declining

* 67.8% under 50 day moving avg

Stuck out

Bounced around all day in a defined range

Yes DOW up 200. But the leading sector was Basic Materials.

We tested the 4444 area multiple times. Also backtested 4425 multiple times.

Strong

Carvana up again 10%

Every sector was green but the leader was Basic Materials

Weak

$VIX

Nothing else notable

10 yr down to 4.19

What to watch

Mag 7 

$AAPL trapped in btwn 200 below and 21, 50 day ma

Ton of economic data this week tue-fri

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

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Show Notes

“We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies”

I can’t make it up. See clip below…

Breadth

* 51 New highs

* 285 New lows (Yet NQ was up 1% and dow up 274)

* 58% Adv / 35% Dec

* 71% below 50 day

What stuck out? 

Jackson hole was sold off but then bought back up

Everyone perceived nothing new from Jackson Hole.

NVDA still closed down

Strong bounce in most areas after lunch. 

$NVDA was anchor all day dispite a bullish day

Scanned hundreds of charts and many things are dead cat bouncing up to test 50 day moving day. 

SPACS

Better.com up to $17 then down to $1!!!

If you recall back during lockdowns the CEO laid off workers in mass over a Zoom call.

An email sent to staff that was read by Forbes showed that Garg had past controversy in the way he handled his workforce.

You are TOO DAMN SLOW. You are a bunch of DUMB DOLPHINS…SO STOP IT. STOP IT. STOP IT RIGHT NOW. YOU ARE EMBARRASSING ME,” Garg wrote in a previous email.

Vin fast auto has sold less than 1k cars and they were all recalled. Yet this co is worth more than GM!

Housing

Airbnb many cities are blocking short term rentals (STRs)

Mortgage applications are as low as 2015 levels.

230pm

We closed off the lows. But we also closed off the highs as well. Never exceeded the Powell Jackson Hole peak

Strong

* Afrm up 28% on earnings (buy now pay later. Another sign consumers are tapped out)

* Cvna up 9%

* Wday up 5%

Weak

* Extr

* Nvda

What to watch

* Yields Yields Yields

* China

* Magnificent 7

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