Not Your Advisor

“In the Midst of Chaos, There Is Also Opportunity” (Sun Tzu)

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

* Markets rallied until 1pm, then there was a selloff taking back half of the days gains

* but markets closed up and every sector was green

We are simply trying to backtest the falling 50 day moving avg. On the SPY watch if we can get to $440 and how prices react

Magnificent 7

Breadth

* 117 new highs

* 200 new lows

* 70% advancing 25% declining

* 77% below 50 day ma

* 66% below 200 day ma

Stuck out

MSFT and AAPL red

Strong

* Russell 2000 lead

* Many names that are lower quality bounced

* 10 yr still too high

* 30 yr mortgage now over 8%

Weak

* Volatility

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

I was a bit under the weather after hosting my two nephews. Kids + Germs! But I felt compelled to get this out to everyone! Hope you have a great day!

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

As war continues in Israel/Gaza, all it took were a few dovish comments from Fed heads to goose prices. But pay attention to breadth as new lows continues to beat new highs.

The dollar index fell sharply after multiple Fed speakers such as Dallas Fed Lorie Logan and Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson reiterating what SF Fed Mary Daly said on Friday, suggesting that soaring 10Y yields have done the Fed's tightening job for them, and no more hikes are coming.

This is how UBS's trading desk put it:

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson sounds dovish. He said he will remain cognizant of tightening financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind when assessing the future path of policy. Also, he said the Fed is in a sensitive period of risk management, where they have to balance the risk of not having tightened enough, against the risk of policy being too restrictive.

I still call BS. Here is what I need to see before I can confidently call a reversal:

* Weaker yields

* Stronger Yen/USD

* Weaker Crude Oil under $80

* 51% of stocks trading above their 50 day moving avg

* More new highs than new lows daily

Breadth

* 78 new highs

* 407 new lows!

* 58% advancing 37% declining

* 80% below 50 day ma

* 68% below 200 day ma

Stuck out

Financials the only sector in red/break even

Strong

* Defense

* Software cyber security

* Magnificent 5 *NVDA and TSLA down

Weak

SMH and Financials red

What to watch

As we approach overhead resistance and the 50 day moving avgs, watch if prices can break up through

Watch mag 7

Watch Crude/Energy

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Horrible weekend of tragic actions of a few humans. As a financial Substack and podcast I am not going to get into my opinions on it. Other than saying how tragic war and conflict is and I hope it ends soon. But seeing how this has been going on since 1950s, it prob won’t end soon.

Pre-mkt as of 8:30pm NY

Make note the DOW was up 288 at Friday’s close. Will it hold onto that gain?

So on Friday…

700 point dow move from the intraday low!

We tanked on bullish job numbers at 830am, then rallied hard near the 200 day ma.

Everyone thinks this was the low and new bull into Q4.

Recent IPOs were puking while we had the 700 point reversal

10 yr still too high

Breadth

* 72 new highs

* 732 new lows

* 66% advancing 29% declining

* 82% below 50 day ma

* 69% below 200 day ma

Stuck out

Strong reversal amidst spiking put option activity.

Ton of jobs apparently sparked a down 200 dow move than we reversed hard off the 200 day ma area.

Only 72 new highs. 10x more new lows!!! And that is with a 700 point dow up from intraday lows.

Strong

Everything crushed Thursday bounced hard Friday.

Yields still strong

Oil bouncing

Weak

volatility

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Watch oil

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Compared to yesterday today was much milder. Magnificent 7 did all the heavy lifting. But if others don’t participate, I suspect this bounce will fail before the coming three day weekend!

Breadth

* 28 new highs

* 822 new lows

* 58% advancing 36% declining

* 85% below 50 day ma

* 72% below 200 day ma

Stuck out

Nothing really

Strong

the things that got crushed Tue simply bounced today

Weak

Energy

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

“Too late for what? The republic to fall? It already has, and you just can't see it, there is no justice, no law, no order, except for the one that will replace it.” - Darth Maul

I shared on Monday how breadth was horrendous. I also shared how the magnificent 7 were being bought while everything was being sold off. In Substack notes I pointed to how the Russell 2k was down 1.58% on Monday and a dow equivalent would have been over 500 points.

Well that all came to pass today. They sold everything on heavy volume. Yields are above 4.7% on the 10 year.

Breadth

* 41 new highs

* 1,226 new lows!!!

* 17% advancing 79% declining

* 85% below 50 day ma

* 72% below 200 day ma

Charts

Magnificent 7

Stuck out

Crude oil looks like it wants $110

Strong

Yields

Volatility

Oil, energy, coal

Weak

Everything

What to watch

Watch mag 7 and major moving avg (50 day, 150, 200)

Watch yields

Watch energy prices

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

Markets lost a 200 pt move higher over the weekend after the govt agreed on a temp bill to bless us with no shutdown for 45 days. The intraday action provided 4 sikes or fakeouts to the upside. If you watched breadth all day, it would have told you not to go long. They also tried to save the market by bidding the Magnificent 7, but they too closed off their highs.

What would we do without the govt bloat. Thank goodness for their benevolence in finding a stop gap for 45 days…when we can do this all over again

Airbnb ($ABNB) Is Fundamentally Broken, Its CEO Says. He Plans to Fix It. “We never fully built the foundation,” Brian Chesky says in a revelatory interview. “It had four pillars when we needed to have 10.”

Germany's Birkenstock ($BIRK) targets $9.2 billion valuation in New York IPO. This means as a public co they will be forced to discount heavily in slow times. I love wearing Birks in the summer.

11am Breadth check

11:15am

Another attempt to buy the mag 7 to boost equitie

$VFS Where are the regulators

11:30am

There is that 4335 level again. This bounce can’t stick with yields busting up

12:30 lunch break. How we doing? Imagine if mag 7 were not green?

1:15 pm

#Magnificent7 losing steam. Oh boy. If this continues we can have a 300+ down day easy

2pm

You tell me. Does this look like bullish breadth?

Breadth (as of 3:30pm)

* 48 new highs

* 793 new lows

* 18% advancing 79% declining

* 83% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Lost the weekend pop on the Govt No-shutdown news

Strong

Relatively speaking, the Magnificent 7 was holding up the market all day

Yields

Volatility

Weak

Russell 2k

$VFS

$CVNA

$PI

$KGC

$SLV

$AFRM

$AI

$ALLY

$GDXJ

$KVYO

$KRE

$ARM

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Dedicated to the funniest show to ever air

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Show Notes

Summary of the day

If I sound exhausted, I was. Looooong day fighting this monsoon in NYC. See photos below.

* The markets gapped up and then puked. This was despite the Magnificent 7 trying to hold up the markets once again!

* The United Auto Workers union will expand strikes against General Motors and Ford Motor

* Government shutdown looms over the weekend

* 10 Yr yield still high at 4.57%

* Crude oil backing off from a high of $93 this week

* Monsoon like rains wreaked misery in NYC (I was one of them impacted). Roads flooded, Flights cancelled.

Breadth

* 69 new highs

* 263 new lows

* 41% advancing 52% declining

* 79% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

* Strong open

* Limped into close

* Magnificent 7 green for the day except GOOG and META

Strong

yields, oil, & energy still very elevated

Weak

Small caps lead to the downside today

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

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* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

Breadth

* 89 new highs

* 580 new lows

* 65% advancing 30% declining

* 79% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Broader bounce.

Weakish close

Strong

Mag 7

Consumer credit and financials

Weak

Not much to call out other then gold and miners

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

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Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

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* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

We are at a logical must-defend area for a bounce. We are also heading into end of month and end of qtr so I suspect wild effort to bounce as well. The up volume simply has not shown up yet.

Last four Septembers for the S&P:

2020: -3.92%

2021: -4.76%

2022: -9.34%

2023: -5.19% (thru 9/26)

Last three Q4s:

2020: +11.69%

2021: +10.65%

2022: +7.08%

2023: TBD

Breadth

* 81 new highs

* 752 new lows

* 50% advancing 45% declining

* 80% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

We closed almost unchanged. Markets were down hard at 2pm but then bounced just as hard and went green. Then we limped into the close.

Strong

DASH 4.79%

PI 4.28%

LYFT 4.03%

DKNG 3.94%

W 3.41%

AI 3.34%

CVNA 3.29%

KYVA 2.81%

UCO 2.69%

USO 2.5%

PJT 2.27%

Weak

VFS -12.89%

CART -4.52%

VIX -3.8%

GOLD -3.75%

GDX -2.99%

PYPL -2.7%

CAVA -2.69%

What to watch

Jerome Powell speaks Thursday at 4pm ET

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

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Follow on Substack Notes

Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

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* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

Dow -388 (1.14%)

The DOW is now under the 200 day moving avg!!!

S&P 500 -63.91 (1.47%)

Nasdaq Composite -207.71 (1.57%)

Russell 2000 -22 (1.27%)

Magnificent 7 look horrible! All are under their own 50 day moving avg

3:52pm Will they try to rally? Watch breadth volume for fakeouts

Laat 15 min breadth volume. No rescue.

Breadth

* 58 new highs

* 756 new lows

* 20% advancing 76% declining

* 81% below 50 day ma

Stuck out

Prior the end of day, the selling was controlled and consistent

Are main st investors awake? or are they sleeping?

$ABBV

Strong

Travis Kelce

Volatility

GILD

AMGN

Weak

EVERYTHING

What to watch

Jerome Powell speaks Thu 4pm

Watch mag 7

Oil/Energy Prices

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure!