Not Your Advisor

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon MusicFollow on Substack Notes

Special Promotion Announcement

It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,300+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content

* Timing: promotion good through Cyber Monday, November 27th

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

* Enter your information on a page that looks like below

Show Notes

Summary of the day

WeWork files chap 11. Told ya!

Who will bail out their lenders and landlords?

Breadth

* 139 new highs

* 194 new lows

* 42% advancing 57% declining

* 57% below 50 day ma

* 66.6% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Low volume. 25% less on SPY

Strong

Tech

software $IGV

Consumer Cyclical

RIVN up 4% ah on earnings

Weak

Energy

Basic Materials

Real Estate

What to watch

Jerome Powell Panel at IMF Thursday

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon MusicFollow on Substack Notes

Special Promotion Announcement

It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,300+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content

* Timing: promotion good through Cyber Monday, November 27th

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

* Enter your information on a page that looks like below

Show Notes

Summary of the day

Much needed breather for markets. It is actually quite healthy for bulls for this pause. But yields fought back today.

Breadth

* 133 new highs

* 132 new lows

* 30% advancing 64% declining

* 59% below 50 day ma

* 66% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Very quiet day

TSLA only mag 7 red today

Strong

FRPT

SG

DKNG

Weak

W

HOV

AI

CAVA

DASH

ABNB

AFRM

ETSY

What to watch

LOT of Fed officials speaking this week

Jerome Powell speaks again Thursday

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast available on:

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon MusicFollow on Substack Notes

Special Promotion Announcement

It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,300+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content

* Timing: promotion good through Cyber Monday, November 27th

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

* Enter your information on a page that looks like below

Show Notes

Summary of the day and week

I believe we just witnessed a Fed Pivot. By the Treasury (Janet Yellen) selling more front end short term debt, and the govt and fed buying it, it increases demand and price. Thus decreasing rates. That news came out Wed but this bounce began Monday so I suspect that too was leaked. Go look at $GS stock price action on Monday Oct 30th. Check out the outperformance vs SPY. Coincidence I am sure.

12:50pm last yr we had two 5-6% bounces in a down trend. Could be something. Could be nothing…

12:41pm Santa is getting ready

* AAPL NVDA MSFT META all above their 50 day ma.

* 10 yr 4.5%

* 195 new highs vs 82 new lows

12:21pm the summary of the week in one photo

8:38am Stock futures add 100 points after soft jobs report sends yields lower. ‘people are less prosperous as we hoped, thus we can maybe stop hiking’

Sick world huh.

PS we went from oversold to overbought this week

Breadth

* 233 new highs

* 102 new lows

* 81% advancing 15% declining

* 53% below 50 day ma

* 64% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Yields decreased 50 basis points

Strong

anything that was weak. Ie housing. Roku, afrm etc

Weak

volatility

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Have you been Naughty or Nice? JANET YELLEN WILL KNOW!

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon MusicFollow on Substack Notes

Special Promotion Announcement

It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,300+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content

* Timing: promotion good through Cyber Monday, November 27th

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

* Enter your information on a page that looks like below

Show Notes

Summary of the day

5:25pm $AAPL sinking during conf call

5pm My sense is we just pulled fwd most of the santa clause rally so big boys can sell before their holidays

3:40pm it is time to buy insurance. At least to begin to. $VIX

3:24pm Execellent post by @Based Money. It summarizes this rally. One word “Manipulation”

3pm $AAPL approching prices right before iPhone 15 launch news

1:20pm perfect ad to intice people to believe in Santa $SPX $SPY

11:35am here is your rally. $TNX tracks the 10 yr yield. For this to continue, hope that the 10 yr doesn’t bounce from here

11:07am $RSP equal weight s&p500

10:50am Be cautious. (we were nearing blow off top type action)

10:20am Yields 4.69. Is helping. As i noted, for Santa rally we need:

* Breadth to improve

* Mag 7 to rally

* And 10 yr below 4.5

Looks like we are almost there

Breadth

* 151 new highs

* 212 new lows

* 81% advancing 14% declining

* 71% below 50 day ma

* 69% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Everything was green.

Apple sold off a bit after the conf call started but let’s see how it behaves before the open Friday

Strong

Massive short squeeze

Weak

Anything short

Volatility related

What to watch

Friday Jobs #

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon MusicFollow on Substack Notes

Special Promotion Announcement

It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,500+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content

* Timing: promotion good through Cyber Monday, November 27th

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

* Enter your information on a page that looks like below

Show Notes

Summary of the day

3rd green day in a row!

Breadth still broken

My takeaways:

* The Fed is not thinking about thinking about cutting rates

* They view that we all are still making too much money and buying too many things

* Powell says it is likely that a slowdown will be needed to get inflation down

Historical performance assuming the The Fed has finished hiking already:

Hat tip LizAnnSonders

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1719829522734830018?t=EStm7dRJn-F7zJ4PyrAS0w&s=19

October tech layoffs up a lot, 2x from September.

Breadth

* 65 new highs

* 498 new lows

* 60% advancing 35% declining

* 81% below 50 day ma

* 75% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Yields closed at the lows 4.75

Indices closed at the highs

ES Levels to watch

AAPL

Strong

Housing related on low yields

All sectors green

Weak

Volatility

Yields

EXTR

CVNA

What to watch

AAPL earnings Thu after close

Friday Jobs numbers

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon MusicFollow on Substack Notes

Special Promotion Announcement

It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,300+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content

* Timing: promotion good through Cyber Monday, November 27th

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

* Enter your information on a page that looks like below

Show Notes

Summary of the day

Great to see two positive days in a row

Breadth still stinks

Volume was unremarkable

Yields still too high

Breadth

* 51 new highs

* 433 new lows

* 65% advancing 30% declining

* 82% below 50 day ma

* 77% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

NAR ruling and what that could mean for how everyone buys and sells homes in America in near future

Strong

Weak

LLY

AMGN

NVDA

ZG

CART

SG

LYFT

GDX

What to watch

WED - FED RATE HIKE AND DOT PLOT

Thu Apple earnings

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

If you have never seen Spaceballs…run and watch!

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon MusicFollow on Substack Notes

Special Promotion Announcement

It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,300+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content

* Timing: promotion good through Cyber Monday, November 27th

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

* Enter your information on a page that looks like below

Show Notes

Summary of the day

Dow 30 and Magnificent 7-1, did their job today. TSLA was down today.

This is how markets can be green and yet so many more new lows.

Breadth remains horrible so that tells me this is not a base or a bottom.

New for your consideration $SPX/$VIX ratio chart

Link you can bookmark

https://schrts.co/irpkgybU

Breadth

* 49 new highs

* 731 new lows

* NASDAQ 12 new highs vs 191 new lows!

* 66% advancing 28% declining

* 83% below 50 day ma

* 78% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Only 2 stocks in DOW 30 were red

Volume was lack luster even though we are so oversold

Crude oil higher

Strong

DOW 30

Magnificent 7 - 1

TSLA down 4.79%

All sectors green

Weak

Volatility

What to watch

FED Wed

AAPL Thursday

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

“In a dark place we find ourselves, and a little more knowledge lights our way.” – Yoda

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon Music

Follow on Substack Notes

Special Promotion Announcement

It has been less than six months and I want to thank the 1,300+ Subscribers who support the Substack! Going into the holidays I wanted to put together a special promotion which will cost you nothing now, but help show support for the work I am doing.

* 33% discount for Pledging to the future paywall (Annual, Monthly or Founders)

* I plan to turn on premium when we surpass 3000+ total subs

* Pledging requires a credit card but it is not charged until Premium goes live

* What will premium include? (at minimum)

* Watchlist(s) (Bullish, Bearish, Price levels, if then scenarios)

* Webcasts covering charts of all above

* Additional Premium only content

* Timing: promotion good through Cyber Monday, November 27th

I want in! How?Instructions:

* Subscribe by clicking “Subscribe” or this link.

* Once you are a subscriber, you should see buttons that say “Pledge your support”

* Enter your information on a page that looks like below

Show Notes

Summary of the day

There is a great disturbance in the Force!

DOW tanks while NASDAQ is up

If you follow me, this should be no surprise why

Breadth

* 44 new highs

* 1255 new lows

* NASDAQ focus: 8 new highs vs 413 new lows

* 27% advancing 67% declining

* 84% below 50 day ma

* 79.9% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

No quit in selling

All bounces are pounded

Vix Crush Friday might be dead

10 yr was unchanged

Strong

Gold

Volatility

Weak

What to watch

Wednesday Federal Reserve rate decision

AAPL earnings

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon Music

Follow on Substack Notes

Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

“https://nyugrad.substack.com?r=1ec55c”

* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

Closed at lows

Where will the bleeding stop?

Breadth

* 47 new highs

* 1,002 new lows

* 44% advancing 51% declining

* 83% below 50 day ma

* 78% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

Rally attempted but failed into close

This was even with yields falling

Strong

Real Estate

Weak

What to watch

how does AMZN react to earnings

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

Geo political

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.

Podcast Available on

Spotify | Apple Podcast | Amazon Music

Follow on Substack Notes

Referral Program for existing Subscribers

* When you use the “Refer a friend” link below or the “Share” button on any post, you’ll get credit for any new subscribers. Here is the link you can copy and paste into any email, text or social media platform:

“https://nyugrad.substack.com?r=1ec55c”

* Once I launch a paywall, your referral credits earned will be retroactive immediately

Show Notes

Summary of the day

MSFT is the sole Magnificent 7 to still be above the 50 day ma!

META aka Facebook Reality Labs losses rise, with total expenses to $89 billion!!!

Breadth

* 52 new highs

* 1227 new lows

* 21% advancing 74% declining

* 83% below 50 day ma

* 78% below the 200 day ma

Stuck out

The markets are losing the Magnificent 7

Sold off all day

Google down 9%+ wow

NVDA down 4.31%

AMZN down 5.58%

META down 4.17% before earnings. Under 50 day

Strong

Volatility

MSFT last one standing above 50 day ma

Energy

Yields

Weak

Communication services

What to watch

Watch mag 7

Watch yields

Economic data

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Financial Freedom is not free, but the pursuit is worth the treasure.