Nothing to See Here

A strong US session and a positive overnight lead for AUS200 — but what happened when Friday's initial futures reopen was flat or lower?

I use Mosaic to examine 13 previous occasions matching this combination.

I cover:

• ASX session finishes: 11 of 13 below the session open, about 85%.

• Average ASX session: -26.77 points, rounded to -27.

• Average excursion from the ASX session open: high +14.38 points, low -43.54 points — roughly three times as much downside as upside.

Filters used (all combined with AND):

• Day = Fri.

• S&P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≥ 50 points.

• AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) ≥ 30 points.

• AUS200 INITIAL OPEN GAP ≤ 0 points.

The initial opening gap is measured from the overnight futures close to the initial futures reopen. It includes a flat gap. The ASX session outcomes measure AUS200 from the 10am session open through 4pm Sydney time; they are not the XJO cash index close-to-close result. High and low excursions do not establish the order of intraday moves.

Historical sample: 13 completed matching observations, 3 Dec 2021–31 Jul 2026. At recording, today's opening condition had not yet occurred; this is conditional context, not a forecast.

Reopen the Data Lab view:

https://mosaic.trade/datalab?view=0d0f73838be5316590ddcefd4c7af495

Explore Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.

After FOMC, the S&P 500 finished lower but closed at least 20 points off the global low. What happened the next day in the historical sample?

I use Mosaic to examine seven previous occasions matching that combination.

I cover:

• The combined Asia and London first session: positive in all seven cases.

• The global high: at least 40 points above the global open in six of seven.

• The S&P 500 full-day finish: four higher, three lower.

Filters used (all conditions combined with AND):

• US500 EVENTS contains DAY AFTER FOMC.

• S&P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≤ -1 point.

• US500 GLOBAL LOW - CLOSE (PRIOR DAY) ≥ 20 points.

Measured outcomes are not additional filters. US500 ASIA + LONDON FIRST SESSION runs from the global reopen at 18:00 New York to 12:00 London; that is the first 13 hours for today's session.

Historical sample: seven completed matching observations, 15 Dec 2022–18 Jun 2026, within the available dataset. This is a small historical sample, not a forecast.

Reopen the Data Lab view:

https://mosaic.trade/datalab?view=e23de7ff5620d02b524059711a63e91e

Explore Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.

Bitcoin, Australia and the S&P have sold off together. What happened next in the historical sample?

In this episode of Nothing to See Here, I use Mosaic to examine 14 completed historical occasions matching the same three conditions.

I cover:

• S&P finishes: 13 of 14 ended no worse than seven points down.

• US500 global lows: a median 33-point excursion below the global open.

• US500 global highs: all 14 reached at least 24 points above the global open.

• Australian day futures: seven of 14 finished at least 40 points higher, measured from the overnight close to the ASX close.

Filters used:

• BTC D-1 < −2,059.5

• AUS200 ASX SESSION (PRIOR DAY) < −44 points

• S&P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≤ −30 points

All three conditions must hold: AND. Current incomplete outcomes are excluded.

Explore Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.

Bitcoin up. S&P down. What has happened next when those two markets move in opposite directions?

In this episode, I use Mosaic to look at the historical S&P 500 outcomes after a Bitcoin rally and a prior-day S&P decline.

I cover:

• The cross-market disconnect in today’s setup.

• The historical finishes discussed in the recording.

• Movement to the global highs and lows, measured from the global-session open.

Filters used:

• S&P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≤ −30 points

• BTC D-1 ≥ 1,000 points

Both conditions must hold: AND.

Explore Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.

After a strong Friday and Asia session, does Monday tend to continue higher—or offer movement in both directions?

In this episode, I use Mosaic to explore historical Monday behaviour in the S&P 500 and US500, and the movement around the global open.

I cover:
• The strong finish to the previous week and prior Asia session.
• The historical Monday sample discussed in the recording.
• Movement above and below the global open.
• Why historical context leaves room for more than one outcome.

Filters used in this episode:
• Day: Mon
• S&P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≥ 50 points
• US500 ASIA SESSION (PRIOR DAY) ≥ 15 points
These conditions are combined with AND.

Explore Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade

I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.