The US Federal Reserve, battling inflation, has finally started to "taper," trimming assets on its large balance sheet. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at Odeon Capital Group, analyzing the full extent of the reductions, concludes the Fed cuts are so far "unconvincing." MAT VAN ALSTYNE, Odeon co-founder and managing partner, argues the Fed has changed course from its original promise to trim the balance sheet in June by $47.5 billion, without telegraphing it to the markets. The Fed cut assets overall by $2.4 billion. BOVE also presents the extent of reductions of Fed deposits by US banks as well as cuts in deposits by the Treasury. "The reduction in bank deposits gave the Treasury an optimal  opportunity to cut," BOVE points out in a recent note. "But the Fed did not take it." 

On the inflation front, BOVE explains that commodity prices continue to drop, reinforcing his contention that inflation has peaked in the US. BOVE cites several crucial factors for this peak in inflation, from the plunge in the Federal deficit to the large scale purchase of treasuries by foreigners as well as the value of the US dollars.

Meanwhile, the core business of US banks is growing, and will grow at a faster rate once the US economy emerges from the recession anticipated by many analysts, according to BOVE. Net interest margins, he says, have jumped at banks based on higher rates overall. Net interest interest income has also risen. Still, parts of the banking industry are contracting.

The CONVERSATION also turns to the brutal war in Ukraine. "The West has to be resolute," in fending off the challenge of the Russia invasions, says BOVE, as he reflects upon the lessons of Russian history and empire building. "I don't think it is resolute." VAN ALSTYNE, agrees the war in Ukraine is likely to be long and protracted, but settling on a definition of what winning this war means, is another matter. "I don't see Russia giving up," says BOVE. Joining this lively CONVERSATION is journalist, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, who challenges BOVE on some of his assumptions on the war with BOVE holding his ground. 

In this topic-packed episode, the CONVERSATION opens with the markets and the recent rallies. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, posits that this market concludes it has heard and factored in all the negative news while at the same time absorbing the positives. BOVE says bank stocks are cheap in this market, addressing the concept of "buying the dips."

On the inflation front, BOVE lays out his scenario for why he says inflation in the US may be a smaller risk that he had originally thought. Today, “everything has changed,” BOVE has explained in a recent note. “The Federal deficits are plunging.” By 2024, the Federal deficit is forecast to dip to $1 trillion, down from a stunning $4.2 trillion in 2020. The CONVERSATION also takes a lively turn at the housing market, plus the recent uptick in adjustable rate mortgages with banks taking market share. MAT VAN ALYSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, offers his own view and experience of adjustable rate mortgages.  

And there's more on the from the war in Ukraine to the retreat from globalization, as the trend toward local manufacturing of products in the US gains momentum. BOVE explains some of the impetus behind this trend. Joining the CONVERSATION is journalist JOHN AIDAN BYRNE

The US Federal Reserve has been relentlessly jawboning the market with talk of monetary tightening to tame inflation. "We've had the Fed pound on us for a couple of months," says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, in this episode, explaining the latest phase in this bear market (with occasional rallies). "We've had a general consensus in the marketplace that we could have a recession with the first big rise in interest rates." With inflation in the crosshairs of the Fed and US consumers, BOVE, addresses the present trajectory of inflation with the sharp decline in the money supply, price declines in some sectors, and a build up in inventories at retail giants.

The CONVERSATION turns to the tragedy of the war in Ukraine, and the rise of the military industrial complex. BOVE looks at the history books for a better understanding of the brutal invasion of the Ukraine by Russia, is skeptical of media coverage on the progress of the war and on who is "winning." MAT VAN ALSTYNE, co-founder and managing partner at ODEON, says if Russia were truly winning, it would not have retreated from Ukraine. "I think what is happening is that Russia is not losing," he says in this episode. Also, the BOVE presents his outlook on a roster of regional bank stocks. Joining the CONVERSATION is journalist, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE

This episode traces the start and origins of today's rising inflation, which clocked in at 8.6 percent in America last month. On February 18, 2021, DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, published a series of assertions on inflation. BOVE warned that inflation would be "out of control" by yearend, noting how the Fed was expanding its balance sheet to pay for Federal deficits. Now the Fed is embarked on a series of interest rate rises while at the same time shrinking its balance sheet to tame inflation. That raises borrowing costs and presents a host of monetary challenges. 

"It appears that the Federal Reserve may have at least $2.79 trillion in securities worth less than what the Fed paid for them," BOVE said in a recent note, laying out one example. "If the Fed were to sell any of these securities, it would require posting a loss when the Fed reports its quarterly numbers."

BOVE and MAT VAN ALYSTYNE, Odeon co-founder and managing partner, in this episode, see in the recent plunges in the major indices, the hand of the Fed. "The markets recognize that change is coming," BOVE says. "Investors clearly recognize that the Fed is unlikely to walk away to kill inflation." Also in this episode, BOVE sees a bright future for US banks after the nation emerges from a coming recession. Banks will then see a surge in business lending activity, he says. He explains why. Joining the CONVERSATION is journalist, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE.

The US Federal Reserve is embarked on a campaign to shrink its nearly $9 balance sheet at the same time as it raises interest rates. The goal is to tame America’s white hot inflation. But the Fed’s dramatic action is fraught with serious challenges. As DICK BOVE explains in this episode, the Fed is unloading securities in this new era of rising interest rates, securities purchased earlier in an ultra-low rate environment that juiced the American economy. The Fed is now facing negative equity since it will sell securities at a loss. “The Fed has done a horrible job in the construction of its balance sheet,” says BOVE, chief financial strategist at Odeon Capital Group.

In this wide-ranging CONVERSATION, MAT VAN ALYSTNE, Odeon co-founder and managing partner, reminds the panel of what one former Federal chair is quoted as once saying, “98 percent of monetary policy is talk and 2 percent action.” VAN ALYSTYNE wonders aloud if Jay Powell, the current Fed chair, is “just talking a big game” in tackling America’s inflation and rising prices. BOVE presents Odeon's indexes of prices from currencies to energy and food.

Joined by host JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, this episode will look at the evidence of China in a weaker economic state with a tour de force also across a range of today’s newsmakers, from the sad and shocking war in Ukraine to hopes for a coming revival of American manufacturing and the culture wars at Disney.

On the same week that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with President Biden in the White House—and as the administration highlights its determined effort to tame raging inflation—both Wall Street and Main Street are on tenterhooks. "It's a battle between Main Street and Wall Street as to who controls the Federal Reserve," says DICK BOVE, in this episode. 

BOVE, chief financial strategist at Odeon Capital Group, says fighting inflation, taming prices on the grocery shelves and at the gas pump, are Main Street's priority. Wall Street, on the other hand, is more concerned about rising interest rates and how that could sharply curb and prevent the market from "rising substantially higher," he adds. Whose side is the President on? BOVE has the answer. Wall Street, meanwhile, is already feeling the sharp blow of the market pullback. "Dead cat bounces in the middle of a declining market are nothing new," says MAT VAN ALYSTYNE, Odeon co-founder and managing partner, explaining the recent surge in the major indexes. 

In the MAIN SEGMENT of this CONVERSATION, the US housing market is in the spotlight with weaker sales and prices anticipated by BOVE. "Housing will slow down, and it will slow down meaningfully," according to BOVE. Joining the deep dive is host JOHN AIDAN BYRNE who asks BOVE for his assessment of housing price trends in the US in light of recent forecasts by several major banks. Also under the spotlight is the emergence in the US of "housing slums", properties owned and operated by investors. 

The biggest banks in America are racing to ramp up their digital platforms for consumers with cloud-based technology that allows them to expand and radically enhance their range of products and services, and overall customer experience. JP Morgan, for example, plans to spend $14.1 billion this year, much of it on new technology solutions. The tech investments by banks is driven in part by fear of competition from smaller innovative fintech upstarts, as well as a demand for superior digital and mobile services by customers. 

The heavy spending is taking its toll though on the smaller banks in America unable to compete. Consequently, some 50 to 100 are closing every quarter. "The banks are operating on the theory that you have to get to the customer at the time the customer wants the loan—or even before," says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at Odeon Capital Group who shares his latest research in this episode. Meanwhile, the traditional brick and mortar branches are being reimagined for a new customer experience. In a surprising twist, Chase Bank announced the introduction of new travel agency services at physical branches amidst this tech overhaul. 

The episode opens with a look at the markets, identifies a paradigm shift, and discusses the latest stock market plunges. How did this all start and what are some market commentators and pundits missing? "Money printing used to be the solution," according to BOVE. "Now it is the problem." Across the world. MAT VAN ALYSTYNE, sees bifurcation like in the days of the Cold War, as the conversation turns to international affairs. Joining BOVE and VAN ALYSTYNE is journalist JOHN AIDAN BYRNE

With bitcoin and other crypto assets having entered a so-called ‘crypto winter’, DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at Odeon Capital Group, explains what's behind the sharp decline in crypto values. Although there was some slight recovery early this week, crypto losses so far have been cruel and brutal for investors. Bitcoin reached just over $25,000—its lowest point since July 2020—last Thursday, its lowest point since the summer of 2020. Last week, some $200 billion in crypto assets were erased following the collapse of "stablecoin" TerraUSD.

Also in this episode, BOVE discusses his latest in-depth research on the US financial system, examining three distinct periods in recent history and the major impact of the pandemic with massive money printing and the Treasury deficit. BOVE describes the risks of a recession and the major beneficiaries of an economic recovery, in particular, the Treasury, Federal Reserve and the US banks. MAT VAN ALYSTYNE, Odeon co-founder and managing partner, joins this Conversation along with journalist, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE.

Citigroup’s stock is selling at the same price it held when John Reed was CEO back in 1993, according to Bloomberg. That's what DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at Odeon Capital Group, notes in his latest report. “It is at a 20  percent plus discount to book value. Clearly, investors have lost faith in the company,” he says. "So, what went wrong and why is this company still around?” BOVE asks. “I would argue that the core problem with this company goes back to [its former CEO] Walter Wriston’s belief in Spenserian management. By pitting one manager against another the bank became silo-ized. Everyone paid attention to his/her turf to the exclusion of the company. The enemy was not across the street, s/he was across the hall.” BOVE lays out his case for Citi in this episode and assesses the task ahead for and performance of Citi CEO JANE FRASER.

In this same episode, BOVE also discusses his new research on Fannie Mae, describing its huge balance sheet as a “lie.” Fannie Mae, the largest holder of home mortgages in the US, is at the heart of a deteriorating home buyers market in the nation, he says. BOVE contends that Fannie Mae is able to avoid common accounting standards and, in essence, "state whatever it so chooses." Fannie's style with language and disclosure, he says, is akin to what happens in George Orwell’s 1984, where an oppressive government develops a language called Newspeak. Fannie, BOVE says, is run on grim socialistic terms with staff exiting in droves.

This episode also looks at the impact of the latest interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve in the face of rising prices and inflation. Odeon's MAT VAN ALYSTYE notes that the era of easy money, and the legacy of quantitative easing, is still here despite the Fed's initial efforts at curbing inflation and scaling back its balance sheet. That's because interest rates have only risen 75 basis pounds since the latest round of increases while Fed tightening of its balance sheet has yet to earnestly occur, he says. BOVE and VAN ALYSTYNE are joined by journalist JOHN AIDAN BYRNE in this lively and informative show on all things money and markets

Episode 15 examines the banking industry close up with a nod to the Great Reset debate popularized by Klaus Schwab and Thierrry Malleret and the World Economic Forum in Davos, and inspired by the Covid-19 crisis.  Central bankers worldwide responded to the crisis by massive market interventions and money printing when shutdowns and locksdowns threatened a global depression and social chaos. In the US, the Fed is navigating the latest stages in the economic recovery and the "new normal." All this occurs amidst the bear market and soaring inflation.

“The whole nature of the economy will change – a Great Reset will, in fact, occur,” according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at Odeon Capital Group, in his latest research. “Banks will be significant beneficiaries of this change.” BOVE notes that while the financial system and the economy is in the process of adjusting, there is likely to be some turmoil in the unfolding drama. 

Appropos, BOVE’S new research is titled, Bank Stock Positioning. Key Investment Points for the Great Reset.