Off The Record - A Sound Republic Production

Gas Records, 7.4% Mortgages, Sticky Inflation & the Midterm Early Vote | Off The RecordGas prices just set a new record with more days above $4 a gallon than any calendar year on record and we’re still adding to it. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 7.4%. New PPI and CPI numbers are out too, and inflation is still running high and sticky.A viewer asked for a quick explainer on the three inflation measures, so I made a simple cartoon to show how PPI (what Walmart pays Tyson for chicken), CPI (what you pay at the register) and PCE (the Fed’s favorite, which accounts for swapping chicken for pork) connect.Then we turn to the midterms:📊 Midterm polling history. How the generic ballot average has compared with the actual House popular vote since 2002, and why midterm polling has been more accurate than you might think.📊 Generic ballot with a historical miss band. Democrats are at D+8.3 today. Here’s what that looks like after adjusting for past polling misses.🗳️ Early voting. Nearly half the country is already voting, and registered Democrats are turning out faster nationwide. A close look at Maine, where registered Democrats lead in all of the top 10 localities by votes cast.📈 My midterm model (October 1 run). It’s been back-tested from 1934 to 2022 and was directionally correct 83% of the time in the House and 74% in the Senate. It currently gives the GOP a 1.3% chance of controlling the House and 0.1% for the Senate. The last run is November 1, and I explain the two variables that can still move it.🎵 Album artist of the day: Peter Tosh. Happy posthumous birthday (October 19) to one of the founding Wailers. Album of the day is the Record Store Day release of Peter Tosh Greatest Hits.🔗 Links & sourcesUniversity of Florida Election Lab: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/50+1: https://fiftyplusone.news/🎧 Off The Record, a Sound Republic production, has audio and video on YouTube and Spotify and audio on Apple Podcasts.Like, share and subscribe. #Midterms2026 #EarlyVoting #Inflation #GasPrices #MortgageRates #ElectionModel #Maine #SusanCollins #Kalshi #PeterTosh #OffTheRecord #SoundRepublicHQ

October 1 Midterm Model Update: Democrats Favored, Trump Approval Slides, GDP StallsThe host reviews the October 1 run of his monthly midterm projections model, notes a week of economic data highlights, and closes with an “album artist of the day.” He tracks rising 30-year fixed mortgage rates tied to the 10-year Treasury, persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target across CPI/PCE/PPI, and a pre-midterms payroll report that is “blah,” with prior months revised down and a downward trend. He explains his back-tested, non-seat-by-seat model (83% House accuracy since 1934) is now driven mainly by President Trump’s rising disapproval and modest GDP growth (final Q2 2026 at 2.2%), leaving Republicans only a barely above-zero chance to control the House or Senate; he would bet Democrats control both, noting other forecasters and prediction markets now align. He ends with Richard Harris/Jimmy Webb’s “MacArthur Park” and a Grammy-winning Waylon Jennings version.00:00 Welcome and Agenda01:07 Mortgage Rates Update02:00 Inflation Check-In02:56 Jobs Report Snapshot03:40 September Model Recap05:30 Support the Channel06:22 Key Model Drivers08:43 October Forecast Results10:59 Others Catching Up13:29 Prediction Markets Read15:52 Final Model Takeaway16:28 Album Artist Spotlight18:42 Wrap Up and Sign Off

In this episode:📉 The $5,000 #dividend promise — and why it's contingent on a November election that hasn't happened yet💰 US national debt just crossed $40 TRILLION for the first time in 250 years — so where's all this "extra" cash supposed to come from?📈 #CPI, #PCE, and #PPI are elevated and sticky — the #Fed just hiked rates in response🏠 30-year mortgage rates vs. the 10-year Treasury — what it means for affordability right now⛽ #Oil, #gas, and #diesel are all climbing — diesel just broke $6/gallon nationally, and we break down where US diesel actually comes from (hint: it's not #Ukraine's fault)🎵 Album of the Day: #SmallFaces' "Greatest Hits: The Immediate Years" — celebrating drummer #KennyJones' birthday🔔 Subscribe for the weekly shows 💬 Got a topic you want covered? Drop it in the comments — mailbag episode coming soon#Economy #Inflation #NationalDebt #Mortgage #DieselPrices #FederalReserve #Politics #DataViz

In this special "Bonus Track" of Off The Record, we break down the September 1st release of our quantitative 2026 Midterm Election Prediction Model.By analyzing key historical indicators—including presidential job approval, BEA GDP growth data, congressional retirements, and Senate seats defended—this model provides a directional forecast for both chambers of Congress without relying on subjective state-by-state polling.In this video, we cover:Prediction Markets: Current odds for the House and Senate on Kalshi and Polymarket.Model Breakdown & Back-Testing: How a parsimonious, data-driven approach accurately predicted 83% of House and 74% of Senate outcomes across 23 elections since 1934.Economic & Approval Trends: How downward-sloping presidential approval ratings and 1.5% Q2 GDP growth impact the incumbent party.State-by-State Recommendations: Shoutout to ‪@LetsTalkElections‬ for granular, state-level analysis.📌 Don't forget to Like, Subscribe, and click the Bell notification icon for more data-driven political analysis!📲 Follow Off The Record across social media & listen on Spotify!

Welcome back to Off The Record! In Episode 2, we cut through the noise to break down how tariffs actually work, who really pays them, and the ripple effects on local and national economies.

We take a look at supply and demand basics, deadweight loss, inflation data, and a case study on Alabama—highlighting the Port of Mobile, trade relations with Canada, and the paradox of local voting patterns versus economic interests.

Finally, we wrap up with our Artist and Album of the Day

🔔 Don't forget to Like, Subscribe, and turn on notifications to support the channel and never miss an episode!--------------------------------------------------

📌 TIMESTAMPS:[00:00:00] - Introduction & Welcome[00:01:40] - VPNs, Online Shopping & Tariff Realities[00:04:45] - Economics 101: Supply, Demand & Deadweight Loss[00:08:20] - Who Actually Pays Tariffs? (The Import Process Explained)[00:13:50] - Case Study: Port of Mobile & Alabama’s Trade with Canada[00:17:50] - "Kitchen Table Issues" vs. Voting Behavior[00:21:40] - Tariffs, Inflation Trends & The National Debt[00:26:50] - The Canadian Trade Contradiction & Keystone XL[00:28:20] - Artist & Album of the Day: Elvis Costello (*My Aim Is True*)[00:31:15] - Wrap Up & How to Support Sound Republic HQ

-----------------------------------------------

📲 CONNECT & SUBSCRIBE:

▶️ YouTube: @soundrepublichq

🎵 TikTok: @sound.republic.hq

🦋 Bluesky: @soundrepublichq.bsky.social

#Tariffs #Economics #OffTheRecord #SoundRepublicHQ #PortOfMobile #AlabamaTrade #Inflation #ElvisCostello #TradePolicy #DeadweightLoss

Off The Record Episode 1 Is Finally Here - Warts and all, including banging noises(caused by me), a pedestrian setup, at least a couple of times going to the nose, clearing of the throat, plus much, much more. 00:00 - Introduction02:32 - Iran Strategy?04:35 - Grading Iran War Rationale(s) & Demands12:50 - Inflation17:36 - Full-Scale Russian Invasion of Ukraine Update 21:18 - 2026 U.S. Midterm Election Prediction Model 26:41 - Album & Artist of the Day28:11 - Thank You and Light Groveling for Subscribers/Followers