On Peace

China has ramped up its engagement in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador so that it can “operate in the United States’ backyard,” says USIP’s Mary Speck. However, China “likes to give showy gifts, but hasn’t really invested” in what the region needs to address governance issues, economic instability and organized crime.

Transnational scams based out of Southeast Asia are increasingly targeting American citizens in a trend that is being “increasingly compared to fentanyl in terms of the impacts on the U.S.,” says USIP’s Jason Tower, adding that since the crime syndicates have close ties with China, we should be “pushing China on this issue to hold it accountable.”

As China works to establish “a space Silk Road” through space partnerships in Africa, “There is real reason to question whether Chinese behavior in space is going to be similar” to Beijing’s current disregard for international laws around issues such as maritime territorial claims and intellectual property rights, says USIP’s Dean Cheng.

U.S.-India relations under the new Trump administration “got off to a decent start” with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington, D.C., last week, says USIP’s Daniel Markey, who added that while there is some friction over looming tariffs, the U.S. approach to trade and defense seemed to be “music to India’s ears.”

After decades of poor governance, ethnic tensions and illegal resource exploitation in the mineral-rich eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwandan-backed rebels’ capture of Goma “has the potential to bring … seven countries into [the] conflict” and ignite a wider regional war, says USIP’s Joseph Sany.

As the U.S. prepares for “continued stormy weather” in its relations with China, it’s important to remember that while Beijing’s escalatory actions remain below the threshold of outright conflict, Chinese leaders “think about war and peace as being on a continuum,” says USIP’s Andrew Scobell.

With the cease-fire in Gaza, Yemen’s Houthis have halted their “near daily” attacks on Israel. However, the Houthis have made clear that “this is a very tenuous pause,” says USIP’s April Longley Alley, adding: “They view [Gaza] as part of a larger struggle … this is going to be a medium- and long-term threat.”

With phase one of the cease-fire underway, the next major question to be answered is: “What would fill [the] governance void in Gaza going forward,” says USIP’s Robert Barron, adding that the Trump administration might consider “a new version of the Abraham Accords that has a Gaza component.”

A presidential transition can be “a moment of vulnerability for the United States,” says USIP Board Chair John Sullivan. But good communication and critical developments in the global landscape “have opened up avenues where real progress can be made” in places like the Middle East, says former Admiral Gary Roughead.

As U.S.-China tensions ratchet up along economic, political and technological fronts, effectively countering Beijing means “understanding [their] mindset,” says USIP’s Dean Cheng. “When we talk about the Chinese having a long-term plan, we’re not talking one year or two years, we’re talking decades.”