On Peace

While the “very volatile situation” in Mozambique is nominally in response to October’s presidential election, “it’s been several years in the making,” says USIP’s Thomas Sheehy, adding “what we’re seeing [there] is what we’re seeing elsewhere in Africa … a dissatisfaction with the ruling party.”

As Beijing ratchets up military pressure along the Strait, Taiwan remains “the one area where we are most likely to see … a direct confrontation between the United States and China” because a conflict “would affect a lot of our allies [like] Japan, South Korea and the Philippines,” says USIP’s Dean Cheng. 

Amid the latest exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran, the Middle East is “a region that really is on fire,” says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian.  “There are no guardrails anymore … all of these different players are testing and probing each other to see what they can get away with. And that’s where the danger lies.”

More than 100,000 Colombians have been forcibly disappeared over the last six decades. Finding their remains is “tremendously healing” and can “repair the social fabric” by giving closure to the victims’ loved ones and allowing former armed actors “to regain their own dignity” by contributing to the process, says USIP’s Steve Hege.

The legacies of the Vietnam War were once an obstacle to U.S.-Vietnam relations. But today, addressing those legacies has become “key foundation” for bilateral cooperation, says USIP’s Andrew Wells-Dang. And as ties continue to grow, youth from both countries “have a new vision for how our countries can work together.”

The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS recently recommitted itself to fighting the remnants of the Islamic State “not just as a group and an entity,” says USIP’s Osama Gharizi, “but also dealing with the factors that gave rise [to it]” and the legacies it left behind — like the process of repatriating those who lived under its rule.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech at the U.N. General Assembly made clear that Ukraine will not give up claims to territory. “Even if they don’t get [the land] all back right away, they will eventually get it back,” says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor, which will leave Putin with “no choice but to look for a way out.”

After dealing with “growing cynicism and lack of participation” in recent years, the U.N. General Assembly opened this week by adopting the Pact for the Future, which represents commitments from 193 countries to “really reform global governance as we know it,” says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham.

During his 10-day trip to the region, the pope used “straight, plain-spoken language” while discussing pressing issues — such as climate change in Indonesia and violence against women in Papua New Guinea — in the hopes of spurring change, said USIP’s Gordon Peake: “No pun intended, he has a bit of a bully pulpit in these matters.”

With a Kenyan-led security mission and a new interim government in place in Haiti, Secretary Blinken’s visit to the country shows that “the United States has been trying hard … to take advantage of the momentum,” says USIP’s Keith Mines, adding that while there’s a long way to go, “for now, there’s something to build on.”