The Gulf States (from east to west: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar UAE, Oman) are at the center of an accelerating confrontation between the US and Israel, and Iran. Iran is forcing their hand to end their longstanding neutrality and to choose a side. Which side will they choose?

In this episode, Gavin and Dave take a hard look at the region that is drifting into a conflict cycle that neither side fully controls. They talk about the security architecture of the individual GCC states, Tehran’s strategy of escalation and asymmetric warfare, and the affects of political and economic constraints in capitals like Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Further, dive into how limited disruption around the Strait of Hormuz reverberates throughout the global economy, and will for a long long time.

Also, I (Dave) made a mistake--I said the Spratly Islands and should have said the Senkaku Islands.

The Board of Peace held its 2026 annual meeting in Washington, DC, gaining capital commitments and additional members.

During the meeting, five member countries on the Board of Peace (Indonesia, Morocco, Albania, Kosovo, and Kazakhstan) have all pledged to send troops to the Gaza Strip. In this episode, Gavin and Dave dive into why these countries intend to commit troops to the International Stabilization Force, their motivations for joining, and immediate challenges the peacekeeping force will face.

Most notably, we discuss why rules of engagement will be critical to the stability of Gaza, and why a general lack of transparency will likely handicap any real attempt to bring peace to Gaza.

Can these five countries, likely led by Indonesia achieve long lasting peace?

Let us know what you think!

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All the best from both of us,

Dave and Gavin

Hey all! In this bonus episode, Gavin and Dave look at why so many former presidents of South Korea leave the Blue House under a cloud of investigation or prosecution or just plain bad luck, and why this pattern may be getting harder to break. And, argue that this mix of geopolitical tension and demographic decline makes the presidency of the Republic of Korea more unstable and less forgiving than in the past.

South Korea faces rising pressure from North Korea and increasing disengagement from the United States. At the same time, the country’s birthrate continues to fall at one of the fastest rates in the world. A shrinking population feeds cultural anxiety and creates a long-term security problem for a country that relies on conscription. Fewer young people mean strain on the military system and on public finances.

Will Korea somehow undergo a baby boom? Will robots and AI save the country’s population from crashing off the face of the earth? Let us know what you think.

If you enjoyed the podcast, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, or share.

We really appreciate it your support! All the best from us On the Fringe!

Dave and Gavin

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This week, Gav and Dave dive headlong into the weird, wonderful world of prediction markets; giant online betting platforms where you can put a wager on just about anything under the sun.These new multi-billion dollar markets seem to be incentivizing people to bet on anything. In this quick bonus, we take a quick dive into a story of two Israelis with military connections being charged this last week with misusing military secrets to put bets on strikes against Iran, and an ongoing investigation into $400,000 dollars one lucky punter walked away with after the removal of Nicolas Maduro in January…..and with impressive capital gains and political backing in all the right places, it doesn’t seem like something that governments or corporations will be able (or willing) to put a lid on any of this any time soon.

Leave us your best feedback, a comment, or your favorite emoji and we will get back to you. Thanks again for listening!

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In this episode, Gavin and Dave move the spotlight to Africa, where the Saudi–UAE rivalry is less than subtle and where a flare-up might have a major impact on your world.

As it has played out, the UAE has backed, funded and supplied weapons and mercenaries to the RSF, one of the two competing factions in the Sudanese Civil War; the other faction, the Sudanese Armed Forces, are increasingly dependent on Egyptian and Turkish logistical support and defense platforms paid for with money from Riyadh. In Somalia, this has manifested for Emirati support for Somaliland’s recognition of Israel and Saudi’s backing of the Federal government in Mogadishu (aided by Turkish F-16s and one of the largest military bases in Sub-Saharan Africa).

The increasingly fraught relations between the two countries shows no signs of course correcting any time soon….though the Board of Peace might conceivably play some role in whatever comes next.

Will the Board of Peace make its first big play and showcase its value? (It is $1 billion to join). Let us know what you think below!

Shoot us an email at [email protected]. We look forward to hearing from you!

In this episode Dave and Gav dig into the increasingly heated rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two monarchies that once moved in lockstep, but are now violently competing for regional dominance.

What began as a strategic partnership, most visibly in Yemen after 2015, has evolved into a contest over leadership of the Gulf, influence in OPEC+, and control of trade routes. Saudi Arabia under MBS is repositioning itself as the political and economic heavyweight of the Middle East, pressuring multinationals to relocate regional headquarters to Riyadh and recalibrating its foreign policy outreach. Meanwhile, the UAE has leveraged its port networks, financial hubs, and interventionist security policies to build influence from the Horn of Africa to the Eastern Mediterranean.

This episode lays out how the two countries are increasingly tangled up in all the worst ways. Is this former close relationship a sign of more things to come in geopolitics, or just a quick flash in the pan?

Let us know at [email protected] or send us a message!

This Substack is listener-supported. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. We sincerely appreciate it!

A well-known hotel in Macau just ripped out its iconic showpiece as gold prices are at (nearly) record highs. Learn why this is happening and what this means going forward for the Special Administrative Region of China.

If you liked the short, let us know and smash that like button! We appreciate it.

All the best from us on the Fringe!

Hey all! In this quick episode we explore what the end of the CIA World Factbook means for inquiring minds, and AI-generated content. If you enjoy the short bonus episode, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe or share with your fellow trivia team or geo-bee all stars. We sincerely appreciate it :)

Hey all! We are going back to a topic that we’ve followed since the beginning of On the Fringe—scam farms in Southeast Asia. Some of our first episodes covered these scam farms and organized crime in the region, including the wild tales of Alice Guo, former mayor of Banban in the Philppines.

These bad guys are using the latest technology, modern-day slavery, and cunning tactics to get you, the average citizen, to lose trust in society as well as your life savings.

Despite the recent crackdown (and Dave and Gavin’s reasoning as to why now), we think it will get worse. Learn how and why by listening to this episode—and share it with your loved ones, especially if they use social media or are not tech-savvy.

If you’ve ever caught them in their sneaky traps, share your story below, or shoot us an email!

This week, Dave and Gavin take a look into a new organization, that seems to be a real harbinger of things to come. Initially pitched as a ‘technocratic government’ for Gaza, the initial concept of an executive board has snowballed into an organization with a charter as vague as its members are colorful. United by a vision of governance that is action-oriented and personality-based, the Board of Peace, even if it goes down in flames, is likely to dominate conversations about international relations for years to come.

If you liked the episode, pass it on, shoot us a message here or at [email protected]. We are excited to be back and have more on the way!

All the best from us,

Dave and Gavin