TALKING POLITICS

One Election or Many?


Listen Later

We have a first look at what's happening in the election campaign by asking whether it's really one election or many. Do national vote shares mean much any more, given all the regional variations? How is the Remain Alliance meant to work? Is this a Brexit election? And is 2015 or 2017 (or neither) a better guide to 2019? Plus we discuss the recent election in Spain and explore parallels between gridlock there and possible gridlock here. With Helen Thompson, Chris Bickerton and Mike Kenny.


Talking Points:


One month out from the election, what do we know? 

  • Why do commentators still rely on polls and betting markets? 
  • What is the appropriate unit of analysis for this election? Is it regional? National? 
  • The rural/urban divide seems to cut across the regional effects. 
  • But tactical voting pulls things down to a more granular level: you have to look at particular seats.


Many people thought this would be a Brexit election, but it doesn’t really look like that.

  • The big theme seems to be spending. 
  • The anti-Corbyn factor also complicates things. Corbyn has generated both a new base, and a backlash. 
  • The Lib-Dems tried to capitalize on this. But they’ve backed down on their anti-Corbyn stance in favour of the Remain alliance.
  • If you look at polling on the fundamentals, Johnson is outstripping Corbyn.
  • Conservative remainers say they won’t vote for Labour.


Will this election be more like 2015 than 2017?

  • Wider forces might overcome local variation. 
  • Lib-Dem voters in the Southwest are generally closer to the Conservatives than Labour. 
  • The SNP are now proactively in favour of a referendum, and Labour has essentially pulled out of the Unionist position. Who will speak for the Scottish unionists?


There’s little scrutiny of Johnson’s deal.

  • Farage won’t be fighting Johnson on this point. And Labour doesn’t want the election to be just about Brexit. 


In Spain, instead of breaking the deadlock, voters entrenched it. Could this happen in the UK?

  • Catalonian independence also hardened far-right support. 
  • Could Scotland drive English nationalism or increase support for far right parties?


Mentioned in this Episode: 

  • Betting odds for the next UK general election


Further Learning: 

  • Mike’s new Bennett institute report on townscapes in Scotland
  • More on the Spanish election


And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

...more
View all episodesView all episodes
Download on the App Store

TALKING POLITICSBy David Runciman and Catherine Carr

  • 4.7
  • 4.7
  • 4.7
  • 4.7
  • 4.7

4.7

622 ratings


More shows like TALKING POLITICS

View all
The LRB Podcast by The London Review of Books

The LRB Podcast

290 Listeners

Intelligence Squared by Intelligence Squared

Intelligence Squared

788 Listeners

In Our Time by BBC Radio 4

In Our Time

5,425 Listeners

LSE: Public lectures and events by London School of Economics and Political Science

LSE: Public lectures and events

274 Listeners

Political Fix by Financial Times

Political Fix

147 Listeners

Start the Week by BBC Radio 4

Start the Week

162 Listeners

The New Statesman: politics and culture by The New Statesman

The New Statesman: politics and culture

151 Listeners

The Briefing Room by BBC Radio 4

The Briefing Room

70 Listeners

Inside Briefing with the Institute for Government by Institute for Government

Inside Briefing with the Institute for Government

17 Listeners

The Bunker – News without the nonsense by Podmasters

The Bunker – News without the nonsense

109 Listeners

Talking Politics: HISTORY OF IDEAS by Talking Politics

Talking Politics: HISTORY OF IDEAS

479 Listeners

Ones and Tooze by Foreign  Policy

Ones and Tooze

349 Listeners

The Rest Is Politics: Leading by Goalhanger

The Rest Is Politics: Leading

852 Listeners

Past Present Future by David Runciman

Past Present Future

320 Listeners

How To Win An Election by The Times

How To Win An Election

20 Listeners

Origin Story by Podmasters

Origin Story

114 Listeners