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One Lucky Dog
One Lucky Dog episodes
- Active Funds, Office Debt, King Dollar, Exec Pay & Christmas Tree Spreads
Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan, and Tony Battista tackle the explosive growth of passive investing and ask whether the trillions of dollars flowing into index funds are changing how markets actually work. As more investors automatically buy the same baskets of stocks, does individual company performance still determine price—or is price discovery becoming increasingly distorted?
The crew also breaks down the latest action in stocks, bonds, gold, silver, and Bitcoin, while discussing interest rates, commercial real estate delinquencies, executive compensation, and the trading opportunities they’re watching. Plus, they answer viewer questions and share their latest positions, strategies, and takes on where the market could go next.
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1 hr 33 min - Market Timing, Midterms, Covered Strangles, Bitcoin & Bonds
Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista tackle a question every investor eventually faces: Should you try to time the market, or is staying invested the better strategy? With stocks trading near all-time highs, the crew discusses market timing, long-term investing, portfolio management, and what happens when investors miss some of the market’s best—and worst—trading days.
They also break down the latest action in stocks, bonds, gold, silver, and Bitcoin, while discussing retirement accounts, managing risk, and whether markets are becoming too frothy. Plus, with the midterm elections approaching, the guys examine what historically calm volatility could be signaling and whether election results really matter to the market.
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1 hr 31 min - Market Timing, Midterms, Covered Strangles, Bitcoin & Bonds | 10.06 | One Lucky DogJoin Lossdog at https://lossdog.com and please subscribe to this channel.The S&P 500 is at record highs while the 10-year sits near 5.27%, and Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista aren't sure which market is wrong. They break down why skipping the 25 worst days sounds smart but rarely works, how to find the S&P expected move going into the midterms, and why calm volatility might just be a clock ticking. Dog Pound callers ask about strangles in bonds, weekend theta decay, 0DTE vs 45 DTE, and rolling costs. Plus Bitcoin back above $86,000 and whether a covered strangle is extra income or doubled downside.#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #optionstrading #stockmarket #bonds #bitcoinTIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:15 Stocks at highs, bonds sell off6:18 Missing the 25 best days in the market15:02 Gold, silver and oil: range-bound?17:14 Selling a ZB strangle in bonds21:36 Can an AI bot run premium selling?25:48 Weekend theta decay: fact or myth?34:20 0DTE vs weekly vs 45 DTE options38:31 Rolling strangles and trading fees42:38 Favorite trades: QQQ, Meta, SpaceX, ZB48:33 Option chain and S&P expected move54:35 Account delta targets59:16 How to enter a debit spread1:02:16 Calm VIX before the midterms1:12:20 Bitcoin above $86K: hedge or hype?1:22:07 Covered strangle: income or risk?Midterms are about a month away, and the market is acting like nothing could knock it off course, even with the 10-year yield around 5.27% and oil still well above pre-conflict levels. Implied volatility usually builds as a known event gets closer, so a low VIX today may reflect time more than complacency. Options pricing also gives every trader a free tool: the expected move, a one standard deviation range you can read straight off the option chain. Add in bond volatility, Bitcoin's rebound, and the long-running debate over market timing vs staying invested, and you get a useful picture of how traders think when price and risk signals disagree.ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOGOne Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG🐕 Follow @wearelossdog everywhere 👉 http://linktr.ee/wearelossdogEveryone has a number. Lossdog helps you know your number, and grow your number.👉 Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com/
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1 hr 31 min - The S&P's 4-Stock Peril, PSKY, Stock Splits & Box Spreads | 10.05 | One Lucky DogJoin Lossdog at https://lossdog.com and please subscribe to this channel.Four stocks are carrying the S&P 500, and roughly 75% of its members closed September lower. Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista break down what that means for traders, why stock splits tend to drain implied volatility, and how the 390 rule actually works. They also walk through Paramount's $52 billion debt sale at 9.1%, whether to pay off a 21% credit card before investing, and how SPX box spreads can work as cheap borrowing or a place to park cash. Callers and the dog pound weigh in on rolling short puts, the 21 DTE rule, and why the VIX is a rough retail product.#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #optionstrading #stockmarket #boxspreads #sp500TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro: S&P peril and box spreads5:48 Company limits trades to 50 a quarter11:09 Why companies split their stock19:13 23-hour trading: liquidity and fills29:25 21 DTE rule: when to roll short puts35:35 The 390 rule explained39:52 Is a 25% yearly return realistic?44:34 Short put ideas: bonds, euro, Oracle51:10 Four stocks driving the S&P 50056:23 Broker marking spreads at bid and ask59:04 70% of net worth in stocks: too much?1:07:51 Paramount's $52B debt deal at 9.1%1:14:48 Caller: how to pick what to sell1:18:18 Pay down debt or keep investing?1:24:23 Box spreads: borrow and lend with SPXMarket breadth is the story right now. The S&P 500 is up roughly 12% this year, yet Nvidia, Apple, Micron and AMD supply about half of that gain while most of the index lags, so a headline index can look healthy when most stocks aren't. At the same time, rising bond yields keep pushing borrowing costs higher, with 30-year mortgages back above 7% and Paramount paying up to 9.1% on new debt. That changes the math on everything from paying down credit cards to how companies fund deals. For options traders, narrow leadership plus rate pressure makes position size, volatility and cash management matter more than any single stock call, and tools like SPX box spreads show how institutional-style financing ideas reach retail accounts.ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOGOne Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG🐕 Follow @wearelossdog everywhere 👉 http://linktr.ee/wearelossdogEveryone has a number. Lossdog helps you know your number, and grow your number.👉 Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com/
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1 hr 34 min - The S&P's 4-Stock Peril, PSKY, Stock Splits & Box Spreads
Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista dig into the growing concentration at the top of the stock market, with just four companies accounting for roughly half of the S&P 500’s gains this year. Is that kind of dominance a warning sign for the broader market, or simply what happens when a handful of companies continue to outperform?
The crew also breaks down the latest action in stocks, bonds, gold, silver, and crypto, while tackling viewer questions on trading trends, expected moves, options strategies, and managing risk. Plus, they discuss whether investors should prioritize paying down debt before putting more money into the market and what recent market signals could mean for traders going forward.
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1 hr 34 min - Record Debt, Inflation Cools, Geopolitical Threats & 2X Calendar Spreads
Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista dig into the growing pressure on American consumers as credit card balances climb and delinquencies reach their highest levels in years. With borrowing costs remaining elevated, the crew discusses whether rising credit card debt is a genuine warning sign for the economy—or simply a reflection of how consumers have adapted to higher prices and interest rates.
They also explore how younger generations are approaching debt, spending, homeownership, and financial independence differently, and debate how much responsibility falls on consumers versus lenders. Plus, the guys break down the latest action in stocks, bonds, options, and commodities while sharing the trades and strategies catching their attention.
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1 hr 33 min - Record Debt, Inflation Cools, Geopolitical Threats & 2X Calendar Spreads I 10.1 I One Lucky DogJoin Lossdog at https://lossdog.com and please subscribe to this channel.Bonds are down about 14% since June, the 10-year sits at 5.27%, and stocks still can't pick a direction. Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista break down why that gap matters, plus credit card delinquencies hitting 13% on a record $1.3 trillion in balances, Micron's drop after earnings versus the options market's expected move, and why healthy companies like Aura are pulling their IPOs. Callers get into tail risk on strangles, how to roll a losing put, and whether double calendars are worth the headache. Tom Sosnoff also calls in from the road to settle the bond bet.#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #optionstrading #stockmarket #bondmarket #creditcarddebtTIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro3:15 The bond bet goes to a vote5:50 Micron earnings and the expected move8:07 Credit card delinquencies hit 13%17:39 0DTE iron condor vs iron fly25:38 Is a 14% bond drop a crash?28:12 How to roll a losing VST put34:47 Tom calls in on the bond bet44:12 Why open interest means nothing45:58 Favorite trades: TLT, Tesla, Adobe53:35 IPO delays: Aura and Bamboo1:02:35 Cooler PCE, ADP jobs, rate hike odds1:13:52 Record highs vs. geopolitical risk1:17:52 Caller: strangle tail risk1:25:55 Are double calendars worth it?When Treasury yields climb, everything tied to borrowing gets more expensive, from credit cards to mortgages to the IPO market. Card balances at record highs with rates north of 21% put pressure on consumers just as a string of well-funded companies shelve their listings, which is often read as a sign that big money is getting cautious. Meanwhile the S&P 500 keeps printing record highs through wars, rate hike odds and a shaky bond market, a reminder that expected moves in options are a guide and not a guarantee. That's why position size, defined risk and trading across different products matter more than any single forecast.ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOGOne Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG🐕 Follow @wearelossdog everywhere 👉 http://linktr.ee/wearelossdogEveryone has a number. Lossdog helps you know your number, and grow your number.👉 Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com/
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1 hr 34 min - Open AI Pulls the Plug, MU Earnings, BTC 400K and the S&P's Risk Premium
Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan, and Tony Battista dig into the debate over AI safety after OpenAI reportedly held back a model following internal testing concerns. The crew debates whether companies developing increasingly powerful AI can effectively police themselves or whether government oversight eventually becomes unavoidable.
The conversation expands into the speed of AI development, the risks and opportunities created by rapidly improving technology, and whether fear of what could go wrong should slow innovation. Plus, the guys cover the latest market action, bonds, volatility, Bitcoin, and Micron earnings while looking at what traders should be watching next.
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1 hr 27 min - Open AI Pulls the Plug, MU Earnings, BTC 400K and the S&P's Risk Premium | One Lucky DogJoin Lossdog at https://lossdog.com and please subscribe to this channel.OpenAI shelved its latest model, bonds just hit levels most traders have never seen, and Micron reports earnings after the close. Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista break down whether self-regulation can actually police AI, why they think the $80 expected move in Micron looks too low, and why a $400K Bitcoin call by 2030 doesn't pass the math test. They also walk through a call ratio backspread, how to butterfly off a winning trade, and the Lossdog Trades of the Week. Callers ask about SoFi covered calls and scalping futures, Tom Sosnoff checks in from the road for a Nike call, and the team demos the new Lossdog market map live.#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #micron #optionstrading #stockmarket #bitcoinTIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro and today's topics4:12 OpenAI shelves its model: AI safety debate9:23 Is there a backstop on bonds?13:02 SoFi covered call strikes14:26 Sizing up on conviction20:43 Caller: scalping futures26:50 Put ratio spreads and the 80 DTE limit31:04 How to butterfly off a trade35:57 Lossdog market map live demo48:43 Lossdog Trades of the Week52:07 Thin equity risk premium and the 26 PE1:01:38 Micron earnings preview1:10:32 Bitcoin $400K by 2030 debate1:19:51 Call ratio backspread explainedThe S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs while its earnings yield of 3.8% trails a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.2%, which leaves the thinnest equity risk premium since the 2008 crisis and the COVID crash. At the same time, bond volatility is at extremes, with long-bond futures trading into a range many traders have never seen. AI names like Micron are priced for perfection going into earnings, and the options market is pricing a move that may not match the stakes. Add the push for AI oversight, a loud Bitcoin price target, and defined-risk options strategies like ratio spreads and backspreads, and you get a snapshot of how traders are handling a high-priced, high-volatility market at quarter-end.ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOGOne Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG🐕 Follow @wearelossdog everywhere 👉 http://linktr.ee/wearelossdogEveryone has a number. Lossdog helps you know your number, and grow your number.👉 Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com/
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1 hr 27 min - Founder's Stock Schemes, NVDA, 0DTE Management & Small Caps | 9.29 | One Lucky DogJoin Lossdog at https://lossdog.com and please subscribe to this channel.Google's founders own less than 12% of Alphabet but still control 52% of the vote, and Scott Sheridan and Tom Sosnoff break down how founders keep that kind of power. Plus the debut of the free Lossdog Market Map, a machine learning map of 5,000+ US stocks built from more than a million data points in 10-K filings, showing customers, suppliers and competitors in one zoomable view. Tony Battista jumps in on why the Russell 2000 is getting crushed by a 5.25% 10-year yield while the NASDAQ shrugs, how to fix a 0DTE iron condor that moves against you, and whether an AI kill switch makes sense after Nvidia's new agent security launch. Callers ask about selling naked puts on margin, trading without charts or price targets, and E*Trade's crackdown on one-lot option spreads.#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #stockmarket #optionstrading #0dte #smallcapsTIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro and market open4:32 Google founders: 12% stake, 52% control16:52 Big tax bill after a great trading year20:40 Caller: trading with no price targets28:57 Caller: selling naked puts on margin33:19 Lossdog Market Map: 5,000 stocks mapped36:55 Trades: bond puts, SLV, Costco, Apple43:09 Caller: the 1/3 width credit rule51:21 10-year at 5.25%: already priced in?58:18 MongoDB CEO exit: sell or hold?1:01:00 Russell 2000: why rates crush small caps1:06:46 Why stocks no longer track bonds1:11:30 Caller: E*Trade one-lot spread crackdown1:19:36 Nvidia AI security and the kill switch1:25:22 0DTE trade going wrong: adjust or add?With the 10-year Treasury yield sitting near 5.25%, higher borrowing costs are splitting the stock market in two. Small caps that depend on credit feel it right away, while cash-rich AI giants barely notice. At the same time, dual-class share structures at companies like Alphabet and Meta mean retail investors can own a big slice of a company and still have almost no say in how it's run. Add in trillions of dollars chasing AI stocks, new AI safety rules taking shape, and brokers rethinking payment for order flow, and it's clear why tools like the Lossdog Market Map matter: seeing how companies connect is becoming the edge, not a nice-to-have.ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOGOne Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG🐕 Follow @wearelossdog everywhere 👉 http://linktr.ee/wearelossdogEveryone has a number. Lossdog helps you know your number, and grow your number.👉 Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com/
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1 hr 34 min
About One Lucky Dog
From the publisher's feed
Most professionals are underpaid and don’t even know it. We’re here to help you get paid the most for your time and earn the most on your money. Join at lossdog.com! Fintech firebrands Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista take your phone calls LIVE every Monday thru Thursday at 10am est. on One Lucky Dog LIVE! Call-in from 10-11am est., M-TH at 989--LOSSDOG. Subscribe to this YouTube channel and @SosnoffonMoney. Lossdog is your personal career and investment portfolio valuation engine. In minutes, our AI turns your resume into a clear, data-backed number: your whole professional worth. No vague ranges. Just the confidence to grow your salary, and your investment portfolio. Subscribe for videos on: --Salary negotiation strategies --Career growth insights --Optimizing your investment portfolio --How to stop leaving money on the table 👉 Know your numbers, grow your numbers at lossdog.com. Follow us on social media @wearelossdog
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