OptimisticBear

In this episode we discuss whether market perceptions of weakness in Ireland (or other nations) can force defaults. We also discuss how Quantitative Easing by the Federal Reserve is already backfiring with rising interest rates and a falling dollar. The show closes with a chat about the re-emergence of debtors prison in the United States.

In this episode of the Optimistic Bear show, marking our first anniversary, we discuss the recent collapse of the Bitcoin bubble, the “prosperity certificates” of Canada’s William Aberhart and the history of failed currencies. We also delve into the psychology of bubble investing, and propose some theories as to why investors seem so willing to get burnt with the same bad investments again and again. Lastly, we explore Harry Brown’s 16 golden rules of financial safety.

With election results coming in from across America today, we discuss what impact change in congressional leadership will have on the economy. We also ponder whether the Republicans will regret their victory if the Great Recession has a double dip. Politicians may have relatively little impact on the economy, one way or the other, but they get the blame when things go wrong as well as acclaim when there is prosperity.

Stories of abuses in the American medical system are egregious, and shockingly easy to find. However, such atrocities of over-billing and fraud are actually a symptom of a deeper problem: the lack of a free market with responsible customers.

In this episode we discuss how even the best investment strategies, founded on the most exhaustive historical data sets, can still go horribly wrong. No trend lasts forever. Even theoretically reliable seasonal cycles can throw investors for a loop.

In this episode we discuss how there is no such thing as a “safe” investment, and that people have to pick which economic scenario they believe in since no asset will perform well in all circumstances. We also talk about the crisis with mortgage processing, with shoddy paperwork and robo-signing. It’s hard to feel sorry for either the lenders or their delinquent borrowers. It’s just unfortunate that we will all pay the price of an exacerbated real-estate downturn as the mess slowly gets cleaned up in the years to come.

In this episode we talk about the growing popularity for currency devaluations around the world. Japan is just the most recent nation to get on the bandwagon with threats to intervene in currency markets to keep the yen down. Ironically, we discuss how it is strong currencies which often lead to the best outcomes.

In this episode a guest from California asks if renters are just throwing money away. We discuss how bullish sentiment is at extremes by some measures, even though the recent stock rally is anemic and within the same trading range we’ve seen all year. Our conversation also turns to how the very fact the Federal Reserve is considering a SECOND round of quantitative easing demonstrates that it’s power over the economy is limited (i.e. otherwise a second attempt wouldn’t be necessary).

In this episode we suggest some more crazy ideas the Federal Reserve can consider to stimulate the economy. Since central bankers seem so willing to consider absurd policy measures these days we thought we’d help by sharing some doozies. We also talk about what impacts a deeper recession might have on the tech industry, hos spending would change and how which companies would win or lose.

In this episode Doug Eberhardt joins us to talk about the credit bubble of the last decade, and how those who made risky loans (which clearly couldn't be paid back) may not have been so dumb after all. In many cases there were implicit guarantees on bad loans. Why not invest in Greek bonds if you know that Germany would never allow a default for fear of wrecking the Euro? Why not invest in Fannie Mae bonds if you know the Federal Government would never allow such a critical part of the financial system to default?

In addition, we discuss how investing in Gold is a good idea for security but not as a path to wealth.