OptimisticBear

In this episode we ponder whether perception alone drives economic trends. Special guest, fund manager Chaster Johnson, challenges the Optimistic Bear's view that the financial system bail-outs not only worked but have benefited more than the fat-cat executives at banks.

In this episode we discuss the attributes of bear market politicians and identify the MOST successful bear market leaders of all times. It takes a different message and personality type to thrive in politics during challenging economic times.

In this episode the Optimistic Bear rants about how the public sector employees are now paid MORE than private sector counterparts and that there is no way to save the unfunded civil service pensions.

In this episode we discuss how markets are following an eerily similar path to 1987. In addition, we talk about whether the rally in treasuries is going to crack and the growth in the barter economy.

In this episode Steve tells how his strategy of trading trends allows him to make money in both bull and bear markets. The trick is to have the discipline to stay with a system. Stop listening to the pundits, just follow the trend and adhere to a system.

In this episode we discuss how changing consumer preferences, and product substitution play a key role in the deflationary process. Already we see people downsizing their expectations, taking in boarders to their homes, and switching to lower priced substitutes for all kinds of things. It’s starting to look at lot like the Kit Kitredge movie, set in the 1930s. We also talk about how surprising it is to see how long the process of de-leveraging and mal-investment purge is taking.

In this episode Doug Eberhardt explains how gold should be a part of every portfolio, providing safety in both inflation and deflation. Additionally, Doug compares the deflationary experience in Japan to what is happening in the US. Our panelists also discuss how there is no economic theory that adequately explains why nations with increasing money supplies (like Japan) can experience deflation.

In this episode we discuss the strange way stocks behave on options expiry weeks and whether real action in the market will have to wait till the fall and the end of the summer doldrums. For good measure, we also talk about how recent finance reform legislation does nothing to prevent future financial panics.

In this episode a caller from North Carolina tells us that the economy hasn't hit bottom there, and that from his perspective as a bank loan officer (with national exposure) a double-dip recession is already baked into the cards. We also delve into the profits and pitfalls of tax lien investing.

In this episode veteran Wall Street Banker Bruce Krasting joins us to talk about how the recent congressional legislation to extend unemployment benefits by borrowing even more money is the final straw. According to Bruce, unemployment insurance is small potatoes compared to the trillions in stimulus an bailouts that have been spent so far, but the insanity has to stop somewhere. Bruce also shares his view on how deflation is likely to win out in the short term, and his views on how emotion can irrationally drive individual stock prices high or low.