Michael: Hello everyone, this is Michael Gross of OptionSellers.com. I’m here with James Cordier in our home offices in Tampa, Florida. James, what a month of volatility this month.
James: It certainly has been. The commodities markets for the last 18 months have been doing a slow drip to the downside. Mainly because of the slow down in China and the demand for raw goods: nickel, zinc, copper, lead, and iron ore have been slowly falling, and, finally, with the idea that interest rates are not going to go up four times this year, which everyone had plugged in to their calculations, meaning a strong US Dollar, which means lower commodity prices. That has completely reversed. Again, here in the United States, we don’t think that’s going to happen, but that has certainly shot some volatility into the commodities market, something as Option Sellers, we really wanted and waited to see.
Michael: James, I know when we talk about commodities, some commodities are more volatile than others, what we saw a lot of this month was some volatility in the metals markets, particularly gold and silver. We had discussed last month a strangle in the gold market, where we sold puts and calls. I know we adjusted those positions a little bit, and I think our listeners would be eager to hear how that’s done or how you would adjust a strangle in a situation like that.
James: The gold market, like anything else that we put a strangle around, has a very good chance of increasing on one side or the other. In other words, moving towards the put or the call. Often, when we sell a strangle, whether it be gold or any other market, Michael, as you know, normally we are trying to highlight around a $1,200-$1,400 strangle around the market. If one side starts moving up, in other words, the rally that we’ve had in gold, just about $100 an ounce basically overnight, did increase volatility especially on the call side, what we would certainly want to do is protect our clients at all times. Even though the gold market is still some $250-$300 away from those original strike prices, we were able to now roll up into positions that are now $500 and $600 above the current price. It’s a strategy, as far as strangling goes, of selling puts and calls simultaneously. It’s certainly one of our favorite trades, especially when you’re looking at fairly priced commodities. The fact that gold rallied $125 rapidly, certainly did make the call side much more interesting. We did roll up several of our positions to levels that we really don’t think gold can hit. We have no inflation, we have a much more stable stock market right now, the banks in the United States are much more well-capitalized, and the chances of gold going to $1,900 or $2,000 in the next several months, looks like a pretty good thing to bet against, and that’s what we’re doing.
Michael: James, we’ve gotten a lot of mail in this month from people talking about trading metals and some of the moves there, and types of strategies we might recommend. One point you made, that was a great point when we were talking last week, was that now that the volatility is in the market, it’s a …..
A great point you made, James, is that a lot of people trading gold and silver look at it and say “Well, I don’t want to trade that market. It’s too volatile”, and, if you’re an options seller, it’s exactly the opposite. The more volatile it gets, the better it is for you as an option seller, and, the point you made was, now that the volatility is in the market, there’s actually less risk for an option seller.
James: That’s true, Michael. As we both know, having volatility makes it seem actually more risky than it is, in my opinion. When you’re able to sell options 20%-30% out of the money in a quiet market, is that better than selling options 50-60% out of the money in a volatile market, and I would say that the latter is true. Certainly, the higher probability is in markets where you’re able to sell options fu(continued)