Order From Ashes

On this episode of Order from Ashes, we talk with Dahlia Dassa Kaye, the lead author of a new RAND Corporation study that advocates a major overhaul of U.S. strategy in the Middle East. Washington can and should jettison legacy arrangements that no longer make sense. Multi-billion dollar military assistance deals with Israel, Egypt, and Jordan were conceived nearly fifty years ago. Big-ticket weapons deals with Arabian monarchies have distorted American policy.

Dassa Kaye argues that the United States can redefine stability and invest in better governance, moving away from dysfunctional partnerships and counterproductive policies. The United States doesn’t have to choose between perpetual war and complete disengagement; as it ends its forever wars, Washington has an opportunity to invest in diplomatic, social, and political leverage that will bring more enduring stability to the Middle East.

Participants include:

• Dahlia Dassa Kaye, fellow, the Wilson Center and senior political scientist, the RAND Corporation

Ten years ago, the uprising in Tahrir Square toppled Egypt’s dictator and raised hopes for political reform across the Middle East. Great setbacks followed in Egypt, which now suffers under an even more repressive autocracy than the one it overthrew in 2011. 

On this episode of Order from Ashes, close observers of Egyptian political life explore the still unfolding legacy of the unsuccessful revolution of 2011. The threat and promise of Egypt’s uprising still makes Egypt’s military dictatorship nervous—and still suggests prospects for future democratic reforms.

Participants include:

• Naira Antoun, Mada Masr and The Century Foundation

Critics of hyper-militarized foreign policy argue that the abuses of America’s war on terror led in a direct line to the January 6 attempt to overturn the presidential election. On this episode of Order from Ashes, two advocates from the grassroots organization Win Without War dissect the connections between unaccountable foreign policy and surging authoritarianism.

Democracy is threatened in the United States because of global trends. Stephen Miles and Kate Kizer argue that deep systemic trends will continue to threaten democracy after Trump’s presidency. A serious attempt at accountability, and an investment in peaceful tools of power, can shift the United States away from the dangers of militarization.

Participants include:

• Stephen Miles, executive director, Win Without War

The challenge to American democracy has called into question some of the country’s deepest assumptions about exceptionalism. Fellows at The Century Foundation have been studying fragile democracy, authoritarianism, and militia rule in the Middle East for decades. 

We apply some of the lessons learned from studying authoritarian relapse around the world—from the importance of calling a coup attempt by its proper name, to the limits of the “war on terror” model for dealing with violent insurrectionists and white supremacist terrorism in the United States.

Participants include:

• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

A fearsome array of climate and environmental woes is straining the Middle East, worsening the existing crisis of poor governance and weak states in the region. On this episode of “Order From Ashes,” we speak to climate researcher Peter Schwartzstein about some of the specific environmental emergencies in the Middle East, and some of the possible solutions.

The United States has many opportunities to incorporate environmental and climate change concerns into all its policymaking. Because of its acute crises of climate, governance, and security, the Middle East is particularly ripe for a new approach.

Drawing on the reports he spearheaded in TCF’s new initiative, “Nature and National Security in the Middle East,” Schwartzstein suggests some encouraging possible moves for Middle Eastern governments, civil society, and the United States to address this slow-burning emergency.

Participants include:

Peter Schwartzstein, independent researcher and 

Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

The United States always had difficulty squaring its record on the ground in the Middle East  with its efforts to promote rights and democracy. It’s even harder after the Trump presidency and a contested election, which featured the sitting president and many Republicans questioning the integrity of the electoral process without any basis in fact.

The Middle East’s long authoritarian relapse increasingly has echoes in the crisis in the United States. On this episode of “Order from Ashes,” we talk with Amy Hawthorne, deputy director for research at the Project on Middle East Democracy. We discuss the obstacles that the Trump presidency created for aspiring reformers in the Middle East, and assess the emboldened crop of autocrats who will challenge the Biden administration.

Participants include:

• Amy Hawthorne, deputy director for research, Project on Middle East Democracy

Egypt’s 2013 military coup and crackdown left the Muslim Brotherhood more adrift than ever before in its ninety-two-year history.

With tens of thousands of members surviving in exile in Turkey, the Muslim Brotherhood is undergoing new strains. Youth in the diaspora have experimented with new, liberal approaches to life, politics, and religion, pitting them against a rigid and aging Brotherhood leadership.

Abdelrahman Ayyash, author of the recent report, “The Turkish Future of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood,” discusses how the Brotherhood has changed under unprecendented repression, and whether it can adapt enough to survive.

Participants include:

• Abdelrahman Ayyash, Egyptian researcher

Washington, D.C. has been the most generous donor in the world to humanitarian aid efforts for Syrian civilians. But United States policy has also been bent on overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

On this episode of “Order from Ashes,” we talk with Syria-watchers Daphne McCurdy and Sam Heller about ways the United States can provide meaningful assistance to Syrian people, without endorsing the Assad regime. With Assad securely in power and the war in Syria largely over, how can the United States balance the conflicting imperatives to stabilize Syria, help civilians, and hold war criminals accountable?

Participants include:

• Daphne McCurdy, associate, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Mohammed Bin Salman quickly shook up the old sleepy way of doing business in Saudi Arabia when he effectively took power in 2015. He took on the Saudi establishment, sidelining the clergy and other royals. He also quickly spent the international goodwill invested in him with a series of destabilizing moves, including a destructive war in Yemen and the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Now solidly ensconced in power as a crown prince in his early thirties, Mohammed Bin Salman could rule for decades to come, steering the policy of one of the world’s wealthiest countries and the planet’s single most powerful oil producer. 

On this episode of Order from Ashes, we hear about the emerging long-term trend lines of Mohamed Bin Salman’s rule from Ben Hubbard, New York Times reporter and author of the recent book MBS: The Rise to Power of Mohammed Bin Salman.

Participants include:

• Ben Hubbard, Beirut bureau chief, the New York Times

At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, displaced populations and conflict zones were considered especially vulnerable, driving early fears that the Middle East would be especially hard hit. The first wave of the pandemic shook Iraq and Iran, but the worst fears did not materialize, at least not initially. 

Now, however, cases are increasing across the region. The pandemic is straining areas already buckling under sanctions, armed conflict, regional rivalries, corruption, and economic depression. On this episode of Order from Ashes, international affairs researchers at The Century Foundation discuss how the pandemic is accelerating regional crises and why it has not yet led to any systemic change. (There’s more TCF analysis of the pandemic in the Middle East in the new roundtable, “Middle East Strained by COVID-19, But Not Transformed.”)

Participants include:

• Dina Esfandiary, fellow, The Century Foundation