What separates the investors and founders who thrive in moments of radical change from those who don’t? According to Alec Litowitz, it isn’t intelligence or emotional maturity - it’s adaptability.

Alec is the founder of Magnetar Capital, one of the most respected multi-strategy hedge funds in the world, and the founder and managing partner of QStar Capital, his single family office and investment platform. Over a 30-year career that began at J.P. Morgan, continued as a founding partner and global head of equities at Citadel, and culminated in building Magnetar from scratch, Alec developed a framework he calls the Adaptability Quotient - AQ - for making decisions under genuine uncertainty. His book, The Adaptability Quotient, publishes September 15th.

Today, through QStar, Alec invests with no fund mandate and no LP constraints - thematically across both public and private markets, in everything from CoreWeave and SpaceX to top-tier VC and PE managers. That unconstrained vantage point, combined with three decades of pattern recognition across market regimes, gives him a distinctive lens on where venture capital sits inside the current moment of change.

Nick and Beezer dig into the core distinction Alec draws between risk and uncertainty - a difference he argues most investors collapse at their peril - and how the AQ framework maps directly onto how founders build, how VCs back them, and how the venture ecosystem itself needs to adapt. They also get into what he calls the second cognitive revolution: why AI isn’t just a new tool but a system-level regime change, what that means for the capital stack and liquidity timelines in venture, and why the answer for smaller players isn’t resistance - it’s remapping.

Quotes

"What entrepreneurs get paid for is not risk. They get paid for uncertainty, for resolving the uncertainty. People may stay at some stranger's house or they may not, but I don't know the probability. If it's high, I have a business. If it's zero, I don't have a business. Let's go resolve that probability. And when someone does a startup and tests it, raises money, probes around it, and gets feedback loops - the answer is yes. That's what they get paid for, for resolving that uncertainty."

Time Stamps

00:00 What Entrepreneurs Actually Get Paid For

00:31 Introducing Alec Litowitz: Citadel, Magnetar, and QStar

02:49 Three Career Chapters and the Through Line: A Systematic Approach to Uncertainty

06:09 The Book: Why Alec Wrote The Adaptability Quotient

07:29 AQ Defined: Why IQ and EQ Aren’t Enough When the Frame Itself Changes

9:40 Why QStar: No Constraints, No Mandates, Just Mapping the Moment

12:22 QStar’s Investment Framework: Thematic, Top-Down, Technocentric and Anthrocentric

14:51 Why Venture Still Matters: The Venture 20, the Mag Seven, and Where Disruption Lives

17:03 Risk vs. Uncertainty vs. Black Swan: The Framework Most Investors Get Wrong

22:30 Applying AQ in Venture: MVPs as Probes, Pivots as Feedback Loops

22:51 A Case Study in Failing Without Feedback Loops

24:33 The Second Cognitive Revolution: Why AI Is a Regime Change, Not a Tool

29:20 Is SaaS Uninvestable? What Becomes Abundant and What Becomes Scarce

32:53 Mapping the Venture Ecosystem: Capital Intensity, New Entrants, and IRR Pressure

37:08 The Liquidity Problem Reframed: DPI, TDPI, and Timeline Mismatch

40:12 Secondary Markets as a Structural Response

43:48 Final Advice: Upgrade Your Operating System

Links

Connect with the guest and hosts on LinkedIn!

• Alec Litowitz

• Beezer Clarkson

• Nick Chirls

Learn more about:

• QStar Capital

• Magnetar Capital

• The Adaptability Quotient (pre-order on Amazon)

• Early Adapters Newsletter

• Asylum Ventures

• OpenLP

What does it look like when one of the world’s most longstanding institutional investors ($120B) decides to go deeper into venture capital? And what happens when one of the most respected LP teams in the business joins forces with them?

Thomas Kristensen, who is responsible for the venture capital business at LGT Capital Partners, joins hosts Nick and Beezer for a wide-ranging conversation that doubles as an announcement: the Sapphire Partners team – including Beezer, Laura and Nate – have joined LGT Capital Partners. Thomas explains why the fit made sense.

LGT Capital Partners manages over $120 billion on behalf of more than 700 institutional clients and is owned by the Princely Family of Liechtenstein. That ownership brings a long-term perspective, often measured in decades rather than years, and it shapes how Thomas and his team approach venture: with patience, close partnership and a willingness to be both buyer and seller in private markets.

Together with Nick and Beezer, Thomas unpacks the firm's recently published white paper on the case for increasing venture allocation, built on three pillars: lifecycle diversification, an innovation hedge against AI-driven displacement and the maturation of secondary markets as a liquidity tool. He also offers a frank assessment of the current market, noting that the pace of deployment feels reminiscent of 2020-2021, and that a valuation dip may be coming regardless of how transformative AI ultimately proves to be.

From the endowment model's stress test to the temptation of clinging to a single fund-returner, this is a thoughtful conversation about long-term thinking from an investor who has spent more than two decades refining his approach.

Quotes

“It’s not new that incumbents are challenged by new entrants. I think what’s new is the speed at which this is happening. In the age of AI, it feels like there is a risk that many incumbents could be displaced quite quickly. And so including venture capital in your portfolio is a way of hedging against this.”

Time Stamps

04:13 Meet Thomas Kristensen, Head of Venture Capital at LGT Capital Partners

05:52 The Princely Family of Liechtenstein and the Long-Term Mindset

08:37 The White Paper: Why LGT Capital Partners Is Increasing Its Venture Allocation

09:45 Three Pillars: Lifecycle Diversification, Innovation Hedge, and Secondary Markets

12:35 Big News: The Sapphire Partners Team Joins LGT Capital Partners

17:35 LP Consolidation: What It Means for GPs

23:47 GP Advice: Keep First Things First on LP Alignment

32:03 Engineering a More Liquid Private Portfolio

37:07 AI Market Heat and Fundraising Pace

45:44 Closing Remarks and What’s Next

Links

Connect with the guest and hosts on LinkedIn!

• Thomas Kristensen

• Beezer Clarkson

• Nick Chirls

Learn more about:

• LGT Capital Partners

• Asylum Ventures

• OpenLP

• LGT Venture Capital White Paper

Opinions expressed by participants are their own and do not reflect the views of LGT Capital Partners, Asylum or its affiliates. The content does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and is not intended as a recommendation, an offer, solicitation of an offer, public advertisement or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no warranty is given as to accuracy or completeness, and it should not be relied upon. Alternative investments are speculative, involve complex instruments, and carry a high degree of risk. Investments and strategies discussed may fluctuate in value and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Listeners should make their own independent investment decisions. No funds are being discussed on this podcast.

Origins hosts Nick Chirls (GP, Asylum Ventures) and Beezer Clarkson (LP, Sapphire Partners) react to their conversation with Nicholas Csicsko, a public/private investor at Trinity. They dig into his framing of “cynical optimism” and why it might be the right posture for venture investing, unpack the growing obsolescence risk for SaaS companies from earlier vintages, and cap it off with a live question: if sovereign wealth pulls back from US venture, what breaks first?

For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: https://subscribe.openlp.vc

CHAPTERS:

00:00 Welcome to Origins

00:54 Musicians as Investors

01:39 Cynical Optimism Explained

02:47 Investor Role Beyond Cheerleading

03:11 Steadying Founder Emotions

05:59 SaaS Obsolete Before Liquidity

07:06 Old SaaS Playbook Breaks

08:00 Lovable Growth Reality Check

09:01 Creative Destruction Across Portfolios

10:17 LP Optimism and Venture Nuance

11:26 Ugly Truths About Great Investors

Learn more about OpenLP: https://openlp.vc

Learn more about Asylum Ventures: https://asylum.vc

Learn more about Sapphire Partners: https://sapphire.vc

What happens when a classically trained musician from Juilliard ends up managing a $6 billion endowment? Today's episode of Origins explores exactly that journey - and what it reveals about how the best institutional investors really think.

Nicholas Csicsko, Managing Director of Investments at Trinity Church NYC, brings a rare perspective to venture capital - one shaped by years of classical music training, a doctorate from Juilliard, and a decade building out one of America's most unique institutional investors. Trinity Church, founded in 1697 and endowed with 215 acres of Manhattan by Queen Anne in 1705, has grown its diversified investment pool to over $4 billion under Nicholas and CIO Meredith Jenkins.

Together with hosts Nick & Beezer, the group digs into what institutional LPs really look for in venture managers, and what puts them off. From the tension between patient capital and the need for liquidity, to skepticism around sky-high private market valuations and the growing disconnect between private and public markets, Nicholas delivers the kind of frank, independent thinking that makes for a truly exceptional investor.

Along the way, they explore the virtues of "cynical optimism" in early-stage investing, the institutional pressures that push LPs toward brand-name funds, and why Nicholas believes the best venture managers are those who know themselves deeply. From the challenges of scaling a venture firm to whether today's AI-driven capital surge is sustainable, this conversation offers a grounded, data-aware take on what it takes to build lasting returns in private markets.

—

Quotes

"If you could put a bunch of investments into a line item that wasn't going to receive scrutiny, that left tail risk of something going to zero would probably be less. But if it's visible, it's discussable. You probably don't get fired for doing the next a16z fund, but you might be questioned if you take a flyer on someone who's up and coming. And so there's this institutional pressure towards, dare I say, conformity. But what's safe? What's perceived as safe?”

"It's all fine and good that folks think they can raise and put more money to work, but I'm a little worried about where it's taking us because when open AI raises around 4x larger than any IPO in history, I kind of worry that we're creating a market that is not sustainable because ultimately there's not enough liquidity. There is a massive disconnect there.”

"Knowing thyself is probably the number one thing I would attribute to all of the best investors I've met. And as they get older and more experienced, they know what they think they need more and more without stopping challenging their bias, without adding that new person to make them better.”

—

Time Stamps

00:55 Meet Nicholas Csicsko, Managing Director, Investments at Trinity Wall Street

02:24 Musician Mindset to Investing

03:40 From Juilliard to Finance

05:56 Trinity Church Endowment Story

09:56 Building the Portfolio and Venture

12:31 Institutional Risk and Conformity

14:47 Private Public Market Disconnect

18:57 DPI, TVPI and Secondaries

20:41 Backing Off Radar Managers

23:47 Cynical Optimism in Venture

28:04 Building a VC Firm Team

34:34 Where Venture Fits Today

39:02 Too Much Capital and Liquidity?

42:20 Closing and Next Episode

—

Links

Connect with the guest and hosts on LinkedIn!

• Nicholas Csicsko

• Beezer Clarkson

• Nick Chirls

Learn more about:

• Trinity Church NYC

• Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

• OpenLP

• Asylum Ventures

Origins hosts Nick Chirls (GP, Asylum Ventures) and Beezer Clarkson (LP, LGT Capital Partners) unpack a recent conversation with David Clark, CIO of VenCap International PLC on megafunds vs small funds and a16z returns. They also discuss Beezer’s article “I See Dead VCs,” which explores how VC is in the first meaningful industry-wide contraction in modern venture history, risks to seed formation, and the workstreams required for emerging managers to institutionalize and endure.

For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: https://subscribe.openlp.vc

CHAPTERS:

00:00 Welcome to Origins

00:33 David Episode Takeaways

02:01 I See Dead VCs Article

02:59 Venture Contraction Data

04:17 Fund Survival Math

05:47 Seed Ecosystem Risk

07:35 What Gets You to Fund Two

08:48 Building a Durable Firm

11:13 Traits of Long Run Managers

Learn more about OpenLP: https://openlp.vc

Learn more about Asylum Ventures: https://asylum.vc

Learn more about VenCap: https://www.vencap.com/

Read Beezer’s article “I See Dead VCs”: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/i-see-dead-vcs-elizabeth-beezer-clarkson-uc4xc/

What does patience look like today when the best companies take 10–15 years to exit, and is it still worth it to wait that long? Today’s episode of Origins dives into one of the most pressing questions in today’s market: how to balance long-term conviction with the need for liquidity.

David Clark, CIO of VenCap and a three-decade veteran of institutional venture investing, returns to the show to bring his rare LP perspective shaped by backing some of the most established venture franchises in the industry. Known for a data-first approach, David offers insight into how top-tier firms consistently generate returns, and how those dynamics evolve as fund sizes scale into the billions.

Together with hosts Nick & Beezer, the group explores the implications of venture capital consolidation, the persistence of power law outcomes, and the shifting role of liquidity in private markets. From the rise and returns of mega-funds like a16z, to the growing importance of secondaries and delayed IPO timelines, the conversation surfaces the core tension of capturing extreme right-tail outcomes while still delivering tangible distributions to LPs. 

Along the way, they debate whether “patient capital” is truly a viable strategy, or if today’s venture structure inherently rewards more active portfolio management. Ultimately, today’s discussion offers a data-driven look at how venture is changing and how fund managers can look to stay ahead.

—

Quotes

“If our managers have one of those top 1% companies, we want to encourage them to let it ride. Because we don't see the very best managers selling their best companies prematurely. That's not how we've seen the best fund level performance. And if you are able to hold those companies through to their full potential, that's where the real value is created.” – David Clark

“I actually think the late stage private markets have become the public markets for early stage venture fund managers. And I think if you consider [that possibility], you can find much more predictability and consistency in performance, returns, and DPI. As much, or maybe even more than large later stage managers.” – Nick Chirls

“What I've seen in the last few years is people taking exits into consideration, which makes my heart very happy. Because for years people were not, and they weren't thinking about returning capital along the way. You can take 10%, 20% and return 1x or 2x your fund. That is a very credible conversation to have with your LPAC.” – Beezer Clarkson

—

Time Stamps

01:13 Meet David Clark, CIO of VenCap

03:29 a16z Fundraising Surge

05:31 First Principles Venture Model

07:18 Public Markets And IPO Scale

09:32 Do Big Funds Want Private

13:17 Power Law Still Rules

14:28 Fund Size And DPI Timing

16:36 Early Stage Fund Math

20:59 Small Funds Versus Platforms

24:02 Portfolio Construction Tradeoffs

25:40 Late Stage As New Public

28:44 Liquidity As A New Skill

30:55 When To Take Chips Off

33:25 Founder Secondaries And Alignment

35:13 Venture Capital Consolidation Risks

40:47 Big Firms Funding Emerging Managers

44:30 Patient Capital Debate

48:00 Going Public Incentive Concerns

—

Links 

Connect with the guest and hosts on LinkedIn!

• David Clark

• Beezer Clarkson

• Nick Chirls
  

Learn more about:

• Read Packy McCormick's blog post on a16z: The Power Broker

• VenCap

• OpenLP

• Asylum Ventures

Origins host Beezer Clarkson,  LP at Sapphire Partners and co-founder of OpenLP, and Nick Chirls, GP at Asylum Ventures, dig into their recent conversation with Dan Gray, prolific venture writer and Research Lead at Odin. They discuss various levels of risk tolerance across the ecosystem – including who the data says can stomach more – whether GPs are giving up on founders earlier than they used to, and whether Dan’s recent deep dive into changing LP behaviors matches anecdotal wisdom in the world of venture.

Learn more about Sapphire Partners: sapphireventures.com/sapphire-partners

Learn more about OpenLP: openlp.vc

Learn more about Asylum Ventures: asylum.vc

Learn more about Odin: joinodin.com

Read Dan’s Writing on VC: credistick.com

Read the Results of Dan’s Survey: credistick.com/lp-2025

For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: subscribe.openlp.vc

CHAPTERS:0:00 Welcome to Origins0:44 Questioning Assumptions In Venture3:31 Does Having More Companies In Your Portfolio Increase Your Appetite For Risk?8:41 Nick’s Risk Tolerance

Origins is produced by Sapphire Ventures in partnership with⁠⁠ Pod People.⁠

Nothing presented herein is intended to constitute investment advice, and under no circumstances should any information provided herein be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any investment fund managed by Sapphire Ventures, LLC (“Sapphire”). Any offer or solicitation of securities by Sapphire may only be made in accordance with the current offering documents for a managed Fund in which Sapphire is an advisor. Additionally, Sapphire does not solicit or make its services available to the public; such offerings may only be provided to accredited investors and qualified purchasers defined within the Securities Act of 1933 and the Investment Company Act of 1940. Information provided reflects Sapphire Ventures’ views as of a particular time. Such views are subject to change at any point and Sapphire Ventures shall not be obligated to provide notice of any change. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or the actual experience may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in these statements. While Sapphire Ventures has used reasonable efforts to obtain information from reliable sources, Sapphire makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of third party information presented herein. Nothing presented herein may be relied upon as a guarantee or assurance as to the future success of any particular investment opportunity or strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dan Gray is a prolific thinker, writer and researcher in the VC world, who describes himself as best known for  “long walls of text on Twitter about the venture industry.” Now the Research Lead at Odin, he sits down with Nick Chirls,  Partner at Asylum Ventures, and Beezer Clarkson, Partner at Sapphire Partners, to discuss the bifurcation of VC, the different types of risk in venture, and the role geography plays in investing. He also unpacks a survey he recently conducted that dives deep into how early-stage VC is faring in a challenging year.

Learn more about Sapphire Partners: sapphireventures.com/sapphire-partners

Learn more about OpenLP: openlp.vc

Learn more about Asylum Ventures: asylum.vc

Learn more about Odin: joinodin.com

Read Dan’s Writing on VC: credistick.com

Read the Results of Dan’s Survey: credistick.com/lp-2025

For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: subscribe.openlp.vc

CHAPTERS:0:00 Welcome to Origins2:16 Unpacking the Early-Stage VC Survey12:27 Who’s Participating Where and When?15:30 The Importance of GP Branding22:19 Dan’s Advice to Early Managers29:47 What the New Normal Looks Like32:20 How Can Smaller Firms Compete?40:34 What Does This Mean for 2026?

Origins is produced by Sapphire Ventures in partnership with⁠⁠ Pod People.⁠

Nothing presented herein is intended to constitute investment advice, and under no circumstances should any information provided herein be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any investment fund managed by Sapphire Ventures, LLC (“Sapphire”). Any offer or solicitation of securities by Sapphire may only be made in accordance with the current offering documents for a managed Fund in which Sapphire is an advisor. Additionally, Sapphire does not solicit or make its services available to the public; such offerings may only be provided to accredited investors and qualified purchasers defined within the Securities Act of 1933 and the Investment Company Act of 1940. Information provided reflects Sapphire Ventures’ views as of a particular time. Such views are subject to change at any point and Sapphire Ventures shall not be obligated to provide notice of any change. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or the actual experience may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in these statements. While Sapphire Ventures has used reasonable efforts to obtain information from reliable sources, Sapphire makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of third party information presented herein. Nothing presented herein may be relied upon as a guarantee or assurance as to the future success of any particular investment opportunity or strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2025 was, undoubtedly, the year of AI. In the first episode of 2026 Beezer Clarkson, Partner at Sapphire Partners, and Nick Chirls, Partner at Asylum Ventures revisit some of their favorite moments from the year before to see what the top voices in VC saw as emerging AI trendlines and how the venture ecosystem and global markets might respond next. In this episode we’ll hear from – among others – Sarah Tavel of Benchmark about what it means to be truly AI native, Sunil Dhaliwal & Mike Dauber of Amplify about finding technical VCs in the age of AI, and Micah Rosenbloom of Founder Collective on how early stage venture often misses major trends like AI until it’s too late.

Learn more about Sapphire Partners: sapphireventures.com/sapphire-partners

Learn more about OpenLP: openlp.vc

Learn more about Asylum Ventures: asylum.vc

Learn more about Benchmark: benchmark.com

Learn more about Amplify: amplifypartners.com

Learn more about Founder Collective: foundercollective.com

Learn more about Curie.Bio: curie.bio

Read Sarah’s Substack Posts: sarahtavel.com

CHAPTERS:

0:00 Welcome to Origins

3:36 Being AI Native with Sarah Tavel

10:36 Finding Technical Founders with Mike Dauber & Sunil Dhaliwal

14:31 Early Stage Founders Are 7 Years Too Late with Micah Rosenbloom

23:04 What AI CAN’T Do with Zach Weinberg28:37-Technical vs. Product Genius with Sarah Tavel

38:49 Nick & Beezer’s AI Trends to Watch In 2026

For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: subscribe.openlp.vc

Origins is produced by Sapphire Ventures in partnership with⁠ Pod People.

Nothing presented herein is intended to constitute investment advice, and under no circumstances should any information provided herein be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any investment fund managed by Sapphire Ventures, LLC (“Sapphire”). Any offer or solicitation of securities by Sapphire may only be made in accordance with the current offering documents for a managed Fund in which Sapphire is an advisor. Additionally, Sapphire does not solicit or make its services available to the public; such offerings may only be provided to accredited investors and qualified purchasers defined within the Securities Act of 1933 and the Investment Company Act of 1940. Information provided reflects Sapphire Ventures’ views as of a particular time. Such views are subject to change at any point and Sapphire Ventures shall not be obligated to provide notice of any change. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or the actual experience may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in these statements. While Sapphire Ventures has used reasonable efforts to obtain information from reliable sources, Sapphire makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of third party information presented herein. Nothing presented herein may be relied upon as a guarantee or assurance as to the future success of any particular investment opportunity or strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Origins host Beezer Clarkson,  LP at Sapphire Partners and co-founder of OpenLP, and Nick Chirls, GP at Asylum Ventures, dig into their recent conversation with Micah Rosenbloom, Managing Partner at Founder Collective. They discuss the EQ and self-awareness required to switch from operator to investor, how to separate signal from noise in venture cycles, and how the speed of iteration is now such that a window of one or two days can change the entire calculus of an investment.

Learn more about Sapphire Partners: sapphireventures.com/sapphire-partners

Learn more about OpenLP: openlp.vc

Learn more about Asylum Ventures: asylum.vc

Learn more about Founder Collective: foundercollective.com

For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: subscribe.openlp.vc

CHAPTERS:

0:00 Welcome to Origins

0:34 How Involved Should Operators Be With Their CEOs?

2:16 VCs and Trends Are Seven Years Too Late

3:19 Repeat Portfolio Companies: Courageous Or Insane?

5:42 How Do VCs Handle the Speed of Iteration?

Origins is produced by Sapphire Ventures in partnership with⁠⁠ Pod People.⁠

Nothing presented herein is intended to constitute investment advice, and under no circumstances should any information provided herein be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any investment fund managed by Sapphire Ventures, LLC (“Sapphire”). Any offer or solicitation of securities by Sapphire may only be made in accordance with the current offering documents for a managed Fund in which Sapphire is an advisor. Additionally, Sapphire does not solicit or make its services available to the public; such offerings may only be provided to accredited investors and qualified purchasers defined within the Securities Act of 1933 and the Investment Company Act of 1940. Information provided reflects Sapphire Ventures’ views as of a particular time. Such views are subject to change at any point and Sapphire Ventures shall not be obligated to provide notice of any change. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or the actual experience may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in these statements. While Sapphire Ventures has used reasonable efforts to obtain information from reliable sources, Sapphire makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of third party information presented herein. Nothing presented herein may be relied upon as a guarantee or assurance as to the future success of any particular investment opportunity or strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.