Origins of the War

How did Europe navigate its relationship with Russia in the decades before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine?

In this episode of Origins of the War, French journalist Sylvie Kauffmann joins Michael Kimmage to examine European politics and relations with Russia in the years leading up to 2022.

Drawing on her experience reporting from Central and Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, Kauffmann reflects on the transformations that followed the end of the Cold War, from the Solidarity movement in Poland and the collapse of communism to the political changes that reshaped Russia and Europe.

The conversation traces how European countries developed different relationships with post-Soviet Russia and how perceptions of Vladimir Putin evolved over time. Kauffmann and Kimmage consider the choices, assumptions, and debates that shaped European approaches to Moscow before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Together, they explore what Europe’s recent history can tell us about the road to 2022 and the profound transformation of European security that followed.

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Where should we look for the origins of Russia’s war against Ukraine?

Thomas Wright of the Brookings Institution joins Michael Kimmage for Origins of the War to examine the conflict through two interconnected lines of inquiry: the European context preceding the war and the evolution of U.S.-Russian relations.

Wright discusses the changing European security environment, the role of NATO, and the evolution of American strategy as tensions between Russia and the West intensified. The conversation also places these developments within a broader geopolitical landscape shaped by great power competition, U.S.-China relations, and questions about American and European cooperation.

Together, Wright and Kimmage consider how these different strands of international politics intersected on the road to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and what they reveal about the challenges facing U.S. foreign policy and European security today.

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How did Ukraine navigate its relationship with Russia in the years before the full-scale invasion?

Dr. Kateryna Shynkaruk of the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University joins the Kennan Institute for Origins of the War to examine the development of Ukrainian foreign policy and the underlying dynamics of the Ukraine-Russia relationship.

The conversation traces Ukraine’s experience through pivotal moments including the Euromaidan protests, Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and the years preceding the 2022 full-scale invasion. Shynkaruk explores the pressures facing Ukrainian leaders as they navigated relations with Russia and the West and sought to define Ukraine’s place in the international system.

The discussion considers how these developments shaped Ukraine’s political trajectory and what they reveal about the origins of the war, Ukrainian sovereignty, and the broader European security landscape.

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How does Russia’s war against Ukraine look when viewed beyond its European and transatlantic context?

Dr. Swasti Rao of the Jindal School of International Affairs joins the Kennan Institute for Origins of the War to examine the conflict from a global perspective, with particular attention to India and countries with longstanding ties to Russia.

Rao explores how narratives surrounding the war can marginalize Ukraine’s agency and shape how the conflict is understood outside Europe and the United States. Drawing on India’s historical relationship with Russia, she considers how these perspectives influence foreign policy and broader interpretations of the war’s origins.

The conversation also considers what the conflict and the international responses to it reveal about global security, geopolitical polarization, and the changing international order.

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How did European policy after the Cold War shape the path to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine?

In this episode of Origins of the War, Michael Kimmage is joined by Constanze Stelzenmüller of the Brookings Institution for a conversation on the evolution of European policy toward Central and Eastern Europe after 1991, Germany’s role in the Minsk diplomacy of 2014 and 2015, and the broader European and transatlantic context surrounding the origins of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Together, they examine how European policy evolved after the Cold War and how diplomatic efforts, security debates, and transatlantic relations shaped the road to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

A conversation on European security, diplomacy, and the historical decisions that continue to influence the war today.

Recorded as part of the Kennan Institute’s Origins of the War series.

How did the post-Cold War security order shape the path to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?

In this episode of Origins of the War, Michael Kimmage is joined by Samuel Charap of the RAND Corporation for a discussion on the evolution of Russian foreign policy after 2012, the European security architecture that emerged after 1991, and Ukraine’s place in U.S. foreign policy.

Their conversation explores the origins of the 2014 conflict, the Maidan Revolution, the annexation of Crimea, the Minsk agreements, and the diplomatic challenges that preceded Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. They also examine questions of nuclear strategy, deterrence, and nonproliferation in the broader context of European security.

A thoughtful discussion on diplomacy, security, and the historical decisions that shaped one of the defining conflicts of the 21st century.

Recorded as part of the Kennan Institute’s Origins of the War series.

How did the Russian military evolve from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the invasion of Ukraine?

In this episode of Origins of the War, Michael Kimmage speaks with Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace about the development of Russia’s military after 1991 and the conflicts that shaped its modern strategy.

Their conversation traces the Russian military’s trajectory through the turbulent 1990s, the Chechen wars, the 2008 war with Georgia, and the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Together, they examine how institutional reforms, battlefield experience, and strategic thinking contributed to Russia’s decision to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

A discussion on military transformation, strategic culture, and the historical foundations of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Recorded as part of the Kennan Institute’s Origins of the War series.

Michael Kimmage speaks with historian Timothy Snyder about the historical development of Ukrainian identity, Ukraine’s place in Europe, and the origins of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The conversation explores the emergence of the Ukrainian national idea, the legacy of the Cossack period, the challenges of state-building in the twentieth century, and the resilience of Ukrainian political and cultural identity through decades of upheaval.

Snyder also discusses the evolution of Russian foreign policy under Vladimir Putin, competing historical narratives about Ukraine, and the factors that contributed to Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.

Timothy Snyder is the Richard C. Levin Professor of History at Yale University and the author of numerous books on the history of Eastern and Central Europe.

A production of the Kennan Institute.

Michael Kimmage speaks with Patrick Travers, former advisor to the Canadian Prime Minister, about the origins of Russia’s war against Ukraine and Canada’s distinctive role in supporting Ukrainian sovereignty.

The conversation explores Canada’s historical ties to Ukraine, Western assessments of Russia’s motivations, the impact of Crimea and the Minsk process, Operation Unifier, and the policy choices made by Canada and its allies in the years leading up to Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Drawing on his experience in government, Travers offers insight into how Canadian policymakers viewed the evolving security environment in Eastern Europe and the challenges posed by Russia’s actions toward Ukraine.

A production of the Kennan Institute.

Michael Kimmage speaks with Stephen Sestanovich of the Council on Foreign Relations about the long arc of U.S. policy toward Russia, the transformation of Eastern and Central Europe after the end of the Cold War, and the historical forces that contributed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The conversation examines the hopes and tensions of the post-Cold War era, the emergence of authoritarian and imperial tendencies in Putin’s Russia, debates surrounding NATO expansion, and the broader trajectory of U.S.-Russia relations over the past three decades.

Stephen Sestanovich is a Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Diplomacy at Columbia University, and former U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for the former Soviet Union.

A production of the Kennan Institute.