Orion Talks

In this episode of Orion Talks, host Marta Furlan talks with Dr Nicholas Barnes on criminalized governance inside some of Rio de Janeiro's favelas. After sharing the process that led him to focus his research on political violence and non-state governance as observed in some of Rio's neighborhoods, Dr Barnes explains how the gangs that control favelas develop relationships with the communities living there. He explains the combination of coercion and benefits that the gangs use to obtain obedience and cultivate support, as well as the changes that these strategies undergo over time and space. He completes the discussion by noting some of the ways in which community members themselves use different tools and strategies to influence gangs' behavior. Dr Barnes then explains the concept of criminalized governance as opposed to the more widely used criminal governance. He also reflects on how criminalized governance relates to other forms of non-state governance, such as rebel governance. To conclude, Dr Barnes builds on his research and direct experience in Rio and shares his thoughts on how authorities should and could navigate the challenges posed by the presence and activities of those gangs in some of Rio's neighborhoods.

In this episode of Orion Talks, host Marta Furlan talks with Prof. David Des Roches on the recent developments in Yemen as the US revisits its approach to the country under President Trump. Prof. Des Roches starts by discussing the US approach to Yemen and the Houthis, over the past years - from the first to the second Trump Presidency, passing through Biden's time in office. As he does so, he illuminates the differences in approach as well as respective strengths and weaknesses. He then helps us to make sense of the US' recent re-designation of the Houthis as FTO and operations against Houthi targets. He emphasizes the possible effectiveness of this approach and how it connects with President Trump's strategy towards Iran. To conclude, he reflects on how regional countries position themselves vis-a-vis these developments and offers his thoughts on the implications that the new US administration's approach may have for the Red Sea/Gulf region.

In this episode of Orion Talks, host Marta Furlan talks with Mr Abdulghani Al-Iryani on the recent developments in Yemen as the US revisits its approach to the country under President Trump. To start, Mr. Al-Iryani offers an overview of the current state of affairs in Yemen, focusing on the conflict between the Houthis and the internationally recognized government and the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, which prior to October 7th seemed to have made some significant progress in their bilateral talks. From there, My Al-Iryani proceeds to discuss the US re-designation of the Houthis as FTO and the recent US military attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen, reflecting on the significance and the consequences of those moves. He then presents the reactions that the Houthis and people in Yemen have had to the US strikes, as well as the position taken by regional countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

In this episode of Orion Talks, host Marta Furlan talks with Mr. Giorgio Cafiero on the approach of the Gulf monarchies towards the new government in Syria led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and we will discuss how Gulf countries may end up shaping future events in Syria. After reviewing the posture that the GCC countries maintained towards Syria during the years of the civil war, Mr Cafiero proceeds to discuss how GCC countries reacted to the collapse of the Assad regime and what they have been saying in their public statements. From there, he goes into more detail, discussing how Syrian-Saudi, Syrian-Emirati, and Syrian-Qatari relations may be expected to move forward under the new Syrian government. In conclusion, Mr Cafiero offers his thoughts on the role of the GCC countries in shaping future events in Syria and the role of GCC countries in influencing the posture of the Trump Administration towards the new Syrian government.

In this episode of Orion Talks, host Marta Furlan talks with Mr. Marcos Sebares Jimenez-Blanco on the battle of narratives around Syria. With the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Russia and Iran have lost an important ally in the Middle East that was key to their capacity to advance their military, strategic, and geopolitical goals in the region. Mr Sebares explains how Moscow and Teheran have been using their information systems to try to shape, or re-shape, the narrative surrounding developments in Syria. While doing so, he points to the methods and strategies used, as well as to differences and similarities in the two countries' approaches. Importantly, Mr Sebares also discusses how the current efforts of Russia and Iran to manipulate information compare to the approach that they followed in the past, throughout the years of the Syrian civil war. He also discusses what the West could do to counter foreign (Russian-Iranian) information manipulation over Syria. To conclude the episode, Mr Sebares shares his thoughts on the new HTS-led government sharing information or misinformation on certain crucial issues, such as the treatment of Syria’s religious minorities.

In this episode of Orion Talks, host Marta Furlan talks with Professor Dawisson Belém Lopes on Brazil's foreign policy outlook, including its relations within the Latin American region and its relations with the US. The episode starts with Prof Lopes giving a detailed overview of Brazil's foreign policy outlook under the current Presidency of Mr Lula da Silva. To better understand Lula's current foreign policy attitude, Lopes takes a historical approach, looking also into Lula's past two terms as President (2003-2011). From there, Prof Lopes discusses in great detail Brazil's relations with its Latin American neighbors, emphasizing the changes that Brazil's regional posture has been undergoing over the years and underlying the specific changes that have taken place from Bolsonaro's presidency to Lula's presidency. Finally, the episode concludes with an interesting discussion on Brazil-US relations, from both a historical and contemporary perspective. To conclude, Prof Lopes shares in considerations on what a renewed Trump president may mean for relations between the two main powers of the Americas.

In this Orion Talks conversation hosted by Suat Cubukcu, Dr. Colin Clarke explores the potential implications of Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House. He analyzes how a second Trump presidency could reshape U.S. foreign policy priorities, alter the trajectory of the war between Russia and Ukraine, and test NATO’s cohesion and deterrence strategies. Additionally, Dr. Clarke examines Trump’s promises to broker peace in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hamas, while addressing broader regional tensions involving Iran and its proxies. The discussion concludes with an evaluation of how Trump’s approach may redefine U.S. strategic competition with China and its overall impact on global stability.

In this episode of Orion Talks, host Marta Furlan is joined by Kawa Hassan to discuss the Israel-Lebanon war and its implications for the region. The conversation starts with a reflection on the implications of the death of Hassan Nasrallah and other top Hezbollah leaders may have on Hezbollah as an organization. It then moves to a discussion on the implications that the most recent confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah may have on Iran's regional strategy, with a particular focus on its Axis of Resistance and its preference for acting through proxy armed groups. From there, Kawa proceeds to explain how this new war between Israel and Hezbollah/Iran may affect the still ongoing war in Gaza, arguing that global attention is being diverted away from Gaza towards Lebanon. Finally, the conversation moves on to whether a region-wide war may be getting closer. Here, Kawa argues that - depending on the definition that one may adopt - a regional war is already occurring.

In this episode of Orion Talks, Suat Cubukcu sits down with Dr. Zachary Zwald, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Houston, to explore the critical intersection of advanced technology and international security. Dr. Zwald, an expert in AI, decision-making, and security, shares insights from his current research. The conversation begins with a discussion of how public perception of AI changes when the technology is applied to military decision-making, especially in critical areas such as nuclear command and control.

Dr. Zwald delves into the unique challenges of assigning accountability when AI makes errors on the battlefield—whether the blame should fall on humans or the systems themselves. He also examines key differences in public trust between AI and human decision-makers in military contexts, particularly in light of the technological competition between the U.S. and China. The episode concludes with Dr. Zwald's perspective on the need for regulating and controlling AI in military decision-making and the potential limits to its integration.

In this episode of Orion Talks, host Marta Furlan is joined by Brig. Robbie Boyd for a discussion on NATO. Building on his decades-long experience with the Organization, Brig. Boyd explains the continued relevance and significance of NATO in the contemporary global landscape. He then discusses some of the most relevant changes that he has been witnessing taking place within NATO over the years, with a special focus on how evolving threats have been impacting the Organization's posture and approach. From there, Brig. Boyd analyzes the position of NATO in different regions, discussing Eastern Europe, Africa, the High North and China. To conclude the episode, he shares his thoughts and considerations on NATO's nuclear strategy - what it is set to look like, its significance, and its implications.