Overshoot: Navigating a world beyond 1.5°C

During a sweltering @London Climate Action Week, we recorded a live episode of the Overshoot podcast, exploring the profound challenges to the strategy on climate change of overshooting the 1.5°C target.
We discuss what a new climate goal might be, what new technologies might be needed, and what can be done to mitigate catastrophic risks.
Moderated by our Executive Director Laurie Laybourn this panel discussion examines how the climate strategy might evolve to meet the new reality.
Featured Guests:
Baroness Worthington – Crossbench Peer in the UK House of Lords
Clara Botto – Director of Outreach at the Alliance for Just Deliberation on Solar Geoengineering
Dr. James Dyke – Assistant Director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter

Sue Owen and Lisa Hopkinson aren't climate scientists or economists. But between them they've uncovered something that should worry anyone with a workplace pension: the assumptions used to model climate risk are, in their words, ridiculous - and the people responsible for billions of pounds don't seem to see it.In this conversation they explain how the Derbyshire Pension Fund's own analysis treats 4°C of warming as a roughly 1% hit to returns, why a chain of advisors, consultants and councillors keeps "batting away" every question, and what they think everyone with a local authority pension should be asking right now.Guests:Sue Owen — Derbyshire Pensioners Action GroupLisa Hopkinson — Divest Derbyshire

On 19 July 2022, Britain hit 40°C for the first time in recorded history. Houses burned to the ground. London ran out of fire engines for the first time since the Blitz. Trains ground to a halt. A major London hospital lost all its patient records. Former BBC journalist David Shukman reveals what actually went wrong that day - and why, four years on, we still aren't ready.

"Wouldn't it be nice if the banks and insurers stopped facilitating the activities that are probably going to have such severe impacts on their industries within the next 30 years?"Actuary Louise Pryor explains how economic models systematically underestimate climate risk, what a sudden repricing of that risk would mean for financial markets, and how the concept of home insurance could become unworkable across large parts of the world.These ideas are discussed in episode 3 of Overshoot, Minsky Moment.Listen to Overshoot podcast wherever you get your podcasts - https://overshootpod.com/

Professor Michael Obersteiner is one of the scientists who popularised carbon capture - now he's warning that we'll need to run it for 300 years at a cost of up to 10% of global GDP - and the world hasn't even begun to negotiate how to do it. This is what net negative actually means, and why it changes everything about how we think about climate action.

We sit down with investigative climate journalist Amy Westervelt to dissect how the framework of "Net Zero" has been weaponised by the fossil fuel industry to justify continued extraction and emissions. We dive into the empirical and thermodynamic realities of carbon capture and storage (CCS), exploring why scaling this technology faces rigid physical and geological boundaries - such as subterranean pore space constraints and gaseous migration - that limit its theoretical capacity to a fractional 2-3% emission reduction. Westervelt exposes the systemic failure of voluntary carbon markets, tracking how tech giants have funded offset projects in Bolivia and Kenya that resulted in severe environmental and social disruption. The world has already missed 1.5°C. Overshoot explores what comes next.🎧 Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube🌍 overshootpod.com#climatechange #Overshoot #climatecrisis #Netzero #drilled

Lieutenant General Richard Nugee spent 36 years in the British Army. Now he's warning that climate change isn't a future problem. It's a national security crisis happening right now.From resource wars to food insecurity, collapsing supply chains to mass migration, Nugee explains why the military understood the climate threat long before politicians did - and why we're running out of time to act.The world has already missed 1.5°C. Overshoot explores what comes next.🎧 Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube🌍 overshootpod.com#climatechange #NationalSecurity #Overshoot #climatecrisis #BritishArmy

We sit down with world-renowned oceanographer and climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf to discuss the reality of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) tipping point. After 35 years of studying this system, Stefan warns that what was once considered a "low probability, high impact" risk has escalated to a staggering 50/50 chance - or worse - of collapsing within our lifetimes.Stefan features in episode 1 of The Overshoot Podcast.Overshootpod.com

Overshoot affects everything - where do we start?

In this bonus episode, a panel of leading climate thinkers and doers discuss the implications of 1.5C overshoot for law, geopolitics, activism, and more.

Host Laurie Laybourn is joined by Arlo Brady (Freuds), Olivia Lazard (Berggruen Institute), Harj Narulla (Doughty Street Chambers), and Clover Hogan (Force of Nature).

The conversation was recorded in front of a live audience at the Freuds Group HQ in London. It has been edited for conciseness.

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OVERSHOOT is a new four-part audio documentary hosted by climate researcher and policy advisor Laurie Laybourn. OVERSHOOT is produced by Planet B Productions and the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative.

Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. For essays and bonus content, sign up at overshootpod.com or follow @overshootpod on social media.

Writer and presenter: Laurie Laybourn

Researcher: Ben Shread-Hewitt

Production coordination: Daniel Norman

Script consulting: Daniel Trilling

Sound design and mix: Ben Heyderman and James Fox

Original music by Haniell

With special thanks to Freuds for hosting us and Ren Balogun and the team, as well as all those who joined us. Apologies to those whose questions we had to cut from the edit; there just wasn’t enough room! 

How can we be resilient to what comes next?

One of Spain’s worst disasters was driven by climate change. But it ended up boosting climate deniers. This episode explores how to avoid this, what it really means to prepare for a world above 1.5°C, and why governments are clinging to fantasy preparation plans. And we hear the stories of how we can stay focused on navigating the growing climate storm. 

***

OVERSHOOT is a new four-part audio documentary hosted by climate researcher and policy advisor Laurie Laybourn. OVERSHOOT is produced by Planet B Productions and the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative.

Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. For essays and bonus content, sign up at overshootpod.com or follow @overshootpod on social media.

***

Writer and presenter: Laurie Laybourn

Researcher: Ben Shread-Hewitt

Production coordination: Daniel Norman

Script consulting: Daniel Trilling

Sound design and mix: Ben Heyderman and James Fox

Original music by Haniell

With special thanks to Aaron Thierry, Mirte Boot, James Dyke, Henry Throp, Stephen Backhouse, Sophia Lennon, and Javier Trescoli García