Note: There's a little bit of crackle in the audio in this episode. Attempts were made to remove crackle as much as possible, but it remains at some point. Hopefully it does not pose too much of a problem for listening.

https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/israel-iran-ceasefire-fragility-israels

On this edition of Parallax Views, James M. Dorsey of the Turbulent World Substack blog returns to reflect of the "ceasefire" between Israel and Iran. Dorsey argues this is not so much a ceasefire as a fragile halt of hostilities for the time being, or a pause. Dorsey notes that it's unclear how much of Iran's nuclear program has been damaged or salvaged by the Islamic Republic in light of the strikes. That, he says, is a big question right now.

We then discuss Trump's relationship with the Gulf States and his evangelical Christian Zionist base. That poses an issue for Trump, Dorsey argues. $3.6 trillion are on the table from the Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) and they want the situation with Israel, Gaza, and Iran solved according to Dorsey. The tumult and fragility of the Middle East has become something of a headache for both the U.S. and the Gulf States.

Dorsey argues the current talk of a Gaza ceasefire is a "Fata Morgana", or a mirage, an illusion. We delve into the different interests at work when it comes to the Gulf States and Israel, and how the relationship between Israel and certain Gulf States have changed from 2015 to now. He argues that the Gulf States' perceptions of Israel have changed. For one thing, the Saudi Arabia-Iran rapprochement means that the situation of Israel's unofficial alliance with the Saudis against Iran has changed. Moreover, Dorsey says that the defense doctrine of Israel has gone from deterrence to emasculation of perceived enemies and states within the region. This changes the dynamic between Israel and the Gulf States, at least in how the Gulf States perceive Israel. Which is to say that Gulf States are now perceiving Israel as aggressive leading to the question of, "Could we be next?"

We then begin delving into some "odds and ends" in the conversation including:

- Israel, Palestine, and the issue of the 1967 borders

- The history of the U.S.-Iran relations and why they have been so tense

- Pushing back on the "mad mullahs" narrative about the Islamic Republic of Iran

- Trump's walking away from the JCPOA (the Iran nuclear deal)

- Is Iran more likely to go nuclear after the latest strikes?

- Biggest risk in the Middle East?: not tackling root problems; Israel's belief that it has the right to strikes whenever and wherever it wants against a perceived threat means a "law of the jungle" system in the Middle East and could become adopted by other states

- Potential deal between Israel and Syria

- The Abu Shabab clan in Gaza

- Netanyahu's rejection of any Palestinian national aspirations and what informs it

- And more!

NOTE: Views of guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect all the views of J.G. Michael or the Parallax Views w/ J.G. Michael program