Paris Perspective

France has taken over the presidency of the Council of the European Union for the first time in 13 years. Under a banner of "relaunch, strength, belonging", President Emmanuel Macron will have to find common ground across the 27 member states on several key issues. Paris Perspective looks at what France will put on the table between now and the end of June.

France took over the revolving presidency on 1 January with a great deal of fanfare by the Macron administration and discussion in the French media.

As a founding member of the European Union, France could be forgiven for taking the 2022 chairmanship of the bloc with resolve, as Paris comes to the table with a packed agenda, ranging from a plan for a common policy on migration and a strategy to deal with sabre-rattling Russia.

It also aims to regulate digital platforms and develop a common EU approach to post-pandemic economic recovery.

All of this provides a showcase for Macron's leadership in an election year. 

Finding consensus among a divided Europe is key to the success of France's six-month mandate.

After Germany's Angela Merkel stepped down from her role as chancellor and the EU's de facto leader after 16 years in office, the limelight is now set on Macron to step up to the plate. 

But can the French President match Merkel's talent for compromise and concession on an EU level, while avoiding potential criticism for using the EU presidency for national political gain?  

"First of all ... this presidency in an electoral context is detrimental for Europe," says Yves Bertoncini, president of the Movement-Européen France and former director of the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris.

"It should have been avoided ... but Macron decided to maintain [the election] calendar."

According to Bertoncini, holding the EU presidency in an election year means Macron will become a target when it comes to European affairs.

"Even if he does positive things, he will be negatively targeted by his opponents." 

Finding an elusive consensus on migration 

Even so, the French presidency of the European Union is an opportunity for France to set the agenda on crucial issues such as migration, an issue that Paris has put at the top of its agenda with a view to getting eastern European and Mediterranean countries on board with a common policy.

Many of the so-called "front line states" who bore the brunt of the 2015 migration tsunami from the Middle East and North Africa feel abandoned by Brussels, and have expressed their anger at the ballot box, giving rise to populist, anti-EU administrations. 

Ahead of 1 January, Macron met with Hungary's ultra-nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Budapest to test the temperature with his political opponent. So, can the EU under France's guidance find common ground with Orban on migration?

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For Bertoncini, the main issue is one of perception: "For some Europeans, migrants are victims – to be backed and to be welcomed. Not all of them, but some of them.

"For Orban and some other leaders, migrants are threats. So as long as you have such a divide in the perception of the migrants, it's very difficult to find a common ground except on the fact that you need to control the external borders of the Schengen area," he says.

"So on this at least you can have consensus in Europe, including between Macron and Orban.

"However, once you take back control of the flow of migration and accept the migrants on Europe soil, the divide still remains. 

"The new coalition in Germany is open to migration. Orban remains very opposed, because for him, it's a political trick. The reality is that no migrants want to settle in Hungary, but it's in his interest is to show that there might be an invasion and I'm afraid that France is caught in the middle."

Coordinated European defence strategy

Another concern at the top of France's EU to-do list is European defence as the spectre of a Russian invasion of Ukraine – and a direct confrontation with the West – looms large over the geopolitical landscape. 

The last time France held the rotating EU presidency in 2008, the agenda was dominated by relations with Russia over its intervention in the Georgian province of South Ossetia and subsequent conflict with Tblisi.

With all the preparation France has put into setting the programme during its tenure of the presidency, is there a possibility the schedule could be derailed by Moscow's machinations?

Bertoncini says that even if you have a consistent, water-tight programme set for the EU presidency, realpolitik could push everything in another direction. 

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"It's difficult to predict. For Sarkozy back in 2008 it was a presidency struck by crisis – the global economic and financial collapse, the invasion of Georgia plus the constitutional 'No' in a referendum in Ireland – so you never know exactly what might happen."

To date, Macron has had to face the Covid-19 pandemic crisis. If Russian aggression comes to the fore in the coming weeks, he will also have to face that too and find an EU common stance against Moscow, in tandem with the United States.

Bertoncini points out that a common European defence strategy has been a holy grail in France in past four decades. This policy even goes back as far back as the time of General De Gaulle. 

"Macron has made the right moves recently to show that we need to try and have a more conceptual European approach [to common defence], but with the Americans – even more precisely with Nato."

A Nato summit is set to be organised at the end of this spring. This means that as France concludes its presidency of the EU, Macron will be able to say that he has at least made the effort. 

Watch full video here

Written, produced and presented by David Coffey.

Recorded and edited by Vincent Pora and Erwan Rome.

Yves Bertoncini is president of the Movement-Européen France and former director of the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris.

France's influence in the Indo-Pacific came under the spotlight this autumn when a Franco-Australian submarine contract was dropped by Canberra in favour of a security alliance between the US, UK, and Australia: AUKUS. This edition of Paris Perspective looks at France's overtures towards allies in its former colonial neighbourhood and the state of relations between Paris and Beijing.

The poor handling of the AUKUS submarine deal in September left France clutching at straws when it came to asserting its presence in the Indo-Pacific.

China called the US-UK-Australian security pact “irresponsible". Since then, France has been making diplomatic overtures to other regional powers - such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Korea - to push for more influence.

For Antoine Bondaz, research fellow with the Strategic Research Foundation in Paris, you have to look into the history of France's pivotal role in the Pacific that still endures today to understand its current position. 

"I think it's very important to remind everyone about French interests in the region. France is not an observer in the Indo-Pacific. France is a resident power," Bondaz says.

"We have more than 1.7 million French people living on French overseas territories, from Réunion Island to French Polynesia.

"It [represents] more than 92% of the special economic zone and maritime domain of France and we have more than 7,000 soldiers permanently deployed in the region."

According to Bondaz, when it comes to the Indo-Pacific, France's role is about sovereignty not just business or cultural interests. 

France's strategy in the Indo-Pacific

Yet following the very public diplomatic meltdown among regional allies that came in the wake of the AUKUS pact, many observers found it difficult to pin down France’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific and how Paris plays off Beijing when trying to counter China's passive-aggressive dominance in its traditional sphere of influence. 

"France decided to lay out its Indo-Pacific strategy a few years ago in 2018, when President Macron visited Australia," Bondaz explains. "And that strategy was very security and defence focused. 

"That explains why [France's] ministry of the armed forces in 2019 were the first ministry to release its own Indo-Pacific strategy - it was a security strategy."

Then, between 2019 and 2020, says the researcher, that strategy diversified to include business interests, cultural interests and global interests.

The whole initiative was updated and presented in July of this year focusing much more on trade relations. 

The AUKUS bombshell landed just one month later.

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So has the US-UK-Australian security deal called into question the whole structure of France's Indo-Pacific strategy?

No, says Bondaz: "It forces France to be clear and recalibrate. Australia was one of the three key strategic partners with France in the region along with India and Japan.. 

"Australia is no longer a strategic partner. Relations have deteriorated to an all time low and [that's] not going to change in the foreseeable future."

According to Antoine Bondaz, every cloud has a silver lining and the AUKUS deal made France rethink its strategy, reach out to other Indo-Pacific countries.

"We're not going to leave the Pacific," he says. "We're still going to keep the Indo-Pacific strategy, but it's going to evolve a little bit."

The diplomatic dance between Paris and Beijing

When it comes to China, France has been running with the hare, and chasing with the hounds. Paris might have taken a firmer stance with Beijing recently, but France also needs to cooperate with China regarding the Paris Climate agreement, protection of biodiversity, and reform of the World Trade Organisation.

So where do things stand when it comes to direct relations between Paris and Beijing?

"It's ambiguous," says Bondaz. "French diplomats would call it tri-dimensional. The idea from a European view is that China is both a cooperation partner, an economic competitor and a systemic rival.

"It means that we are fully aware that we have to cooperate with Beijing on many issues from climate change to preventing the next pandemic," he adds. 

Engagement with China "disappointing"

However, relations are always complicated between any EU state and China as all players have to try and balance their relationship with Beijing. 

When Macron was running for the presidency, he had two priorities: "The first was to rebalance economic relations with China that are very unbalanced with huge trade deficits," Bondaz says, adding that very little has been achieved on that front, apart from the lifting of a beef embargo.

The second dimension was climate change.

"Some might say that, thanks to France, China stayed in the Paris agreement," quips Bondaz. But it’s not because of France - it's because the US under the Trump administration pulled out of the climate deal, giving China a more vested interest in staying wtihin the Paris Agreement.

But for Bondaz, the results of Franco-Chinese relations since the beginning of Macron's presidency have been mixed "and a little disappointing."

Watch full video here.

Written, produced and presented by David Coffey.

Recorded and edited by Cécile Pompeani and Erwan Rome.

Antoine Bondaz is a research fellow at the Strategic Research Foundation in Paris.

The transatlantic friendship is still on shaky ground almost a year after Joe Biden swept to power with the promise of stamping out four years of vitriol from the Trump presidency. Paris Perspective probes why the Franco-US honeymoon was so quickly extinguished, and what steps are being taken to repair the centuries-old alliance.

During a time when new alliances and friendships are being forged, France feels it’s losing out, explains former US diplomat William Jordan, now based in Paris.

Complicated post-Brexit British ties with the EU, Australia's stunning about-face over a lucrative submarine deal and the US's desire to also build up strategic partnerships with other countries has created a geopolitical jigsaw that's making it hard for France and the US to find the pieces that will enable them fit comfortably in the bigger picture.  

When France recalled its ambassador from Washington after Australia dumped Paris in favour of a three-way submarine defence deal with the US and Britain, Biden was quick to dispatch Vice President Kamala Harris to the French capital to hurriedly work things out.

Pulling out the ambassador was a dramatic move, and the first time France had done so in its 243-year frienship with the United States.

While the Harris visit was an important first step, the "subgate" betrayal – which France unequivocally descibed as a "stab in the back" – is still far from forgotten, Jordan told RFI.  

"They [Harris and Macron] met in the met in Rome at the G20, and it was very clear that the French position was to make the Americans grovel a little bit more," he says.

"But what I've heard from the American embassy here, is that everybody believes the visit by Kamala Harris was positive.

"If an American official visits Paris, participates in all the meetings, sticks to predictable talking points, doesn't sulk and doesn't refuse to attend certain things because they're afraid they're going to be beaten up by all the other participants ... well, then it's a success."

Rival pact

Australia, the US and Britain this month formally embarked on their controversial deal, the AUKUS security alliance, to equip Australia's navy with nuclear-powered submarines. 

France remains infuriated by the secretive way in which the three countries collaborated to ditch the French deal to supply Canberra with traditional diesel-powered submarines.

AUKUS allows for the exchange of sensitive "naval nuclear propulsion information" between Australia, the US and Britain in a bid to confront strategic tensions in the Indo-Pacific region.

Biden has admitted that AUKUS was handled clumsily and "was not done with a lot of grace". 

For its part China, has called the agreement “extremely irresponsible”.

New alliances?

In response to the switch of allegiances in the Indo-Pacific, France has also shifted its focus. Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian paid a two-day visit to Indonesia to follow up on a defence deal and the sale of 36 Rafale jets.

Paris is seeking to strengthen its ties in the region via high-level meetings in countries ranging from Japan to India and Vietnam. When listing regional allies ahead of the Jakarta trip, Le Drian made sure not to count Australia among them. 

Yet when it comes to facing down China, French policy in the Indo-Pacific is "ambiguous, to say the least", says Jordan.

"The French made a big deal [on the internet] about having sent a nuclear submarine on a worldwide patrol that included going through some of the disputed waters in the South China Sea."

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However, every time the US has tried to get France and other European countries on board against China, the reaction has been uneasy.

The big question, says Jordan, is to what extent is France plans to go it alone.

"Is this going to be woven into some larger Western initiative?" he asks.

"And if that's the case, where exactly does Europe as a whole fit in? Because at the moment, the last thing one can say about Europe is that it has a cohesive, coherent or consolidated policy."

Filling the Merkel void

Indeed with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the way out, Europe finds itself with no collective leadership.

For the Biden administration, Jordan says, the EU has to "get its act in order", adding there wasn't much enthusiasm for French President Emmanuel Macron to step into Merkel's role as de facto head of Europe.

"What we're seeing here is the defining of a post-Brexit Europe. Britain used to play an important role in the past, and is now no longer part of it," Jordan adds.

It's a pivotal time for Europe, and for the US as Biden makes decisions on how to deal with Nato – an alliance that faces challenges of its own – as well as China, Russia and Ukraine.

When Biden said America was "back", it was thought that he would take steps to restore ties with America's longtime partners.

"That hasn't happened," Jordan says. "Washington is looking for European leadership, and trying to find out who to engage with."

The Russian challenge, however, underscores that for the last 15 to 20 years, Nato is no longer the greatest alliance that ever existed. 

With Russian troops reported to be amassing on the border with Ukraine, the role of Nato and how the alliance stands to shape transatlantic ties will be significant. This will be particularly important given the Soviets had long sought ways to sow division among Nato allies, Jordan adds.

"The short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles were only for use against Europe," he says. And having risen through the ranks of the KGB during the Cold War, Vladimir Putin has a lot more levers at his diposal that the Europeans do to fight back. 

"[Putin's] looking to see how far he can push things. And is the West prepared to go into a hot war on behalf of a country that isn't part of Nato?" 

Unlikely. 

Despite drawing a line in the sand regarding the integrity of Ukraine during a recent telephone conversation with Putin, Macron has more pressing issues on the home front as France gears up for presidential elections in April 2022.

To be continued.

Watch full video here

Written, produced and presented by David Coffey

Recorded and edited by Thibault Baudel

William Jordan is a former US diplomat based in Paris and president of the Association of Americans Resident Overseas.

High-end goods are more than fancy purses and jewellery. They're a powerful diplomatic tool and an instrument of soft power that contributes to the international reach of world powers. With France's "great houses" leading the aristocracy of luxury, Paris Perspective looks into the actions and strategies employed by luxury brands in promoting their countries of origin. 

From time immemorial, the use of luxury goods in diplomacy has been an essential part of relationship and nation building.

Be it vassal kings paying tribute to their feudal overlords, or impressing guests at a political fundraiser with champagne and caviar, luxury has been an essential tool in winning over adversaries and flattering allies. 

In this era of globalisation, the political power of luxury has geopolitical repercussions. Brands that constitute the essence of luxury have been resilient to crises through the decades and centuries. 

More recently – between the 2008 global economic collapse to the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic – luxury goods have taken a short term hit, but almost instantly rebounded to pre-crisis levels of consumption.

This is because luxury is not just a tangible extravagance, but also a state of mind, says Bruno Lavagna, a consultant who specialises in the geostrategy of luxury.

"One of the main characteristics of luxury is that whether we are confronted by climate change, wars, natural catastrophes – luxury is always there whether you are rich or poor," Lavagna said.

Everyone needs luxury he adds. "After a crisis, after a pandemic, after a war, you will go back to luxury – whatever that might be."

It might take the form of an item from a fancy brand, or a dream to be realised. 

'Ambassadors' and the diplomatic lexicon

And it's through this quest for a dream within the so-called “great houses” like Louis Vuitton and Chanel, that a lexicon has emerged rich in diplomatic vocabulary.

Luxury “ambassadors” are appointed, representing the "national spirit" of a brand, expanding a country's international reach through a luxury commodity. As such, the use of diplomatic jargon is hardly a coincidence.

"Not at all," says Lavagna, who is also the founding director of the Be.Exclusive consultancy in Monaco.

"Beginning with my own story. I've been working in the luxury businesses for more than 35 years. And I have very [specific] geographic and historical roots, speaking English, German, Italian, of course, and French.

"When you travel, when you go abroad, you need to discover, you need to understand. As luxury is a global phenomenon, the diplomatic echoes resonate within it."

By 2021, Asia has become the epicentre of the luxury market, with China accounting for 40 percent of the world's 450 million global luxury consumers.

But as Beijing seeks to dominate the new silk routes under its colossal Belt and Road project, important questions are raised.

Have the “great houses” questioned the authoritarian approach of leader Xi Jinping? 

Do the affluent brands of status and style offer any response to rights abuses in Xinjiang, military expansionism in the South China Sea or the contentious status of Taiwan?

Perhaps the Chinese market is too important to the "purveyors of dreams" to rock the political boat.

"Don't forget that there are 1.4 billion Chinese living in a world of seven billion people," Lavagna says. "That means China will be everywhere."

Even during the pandemic when the Chinese market was closed, they still bought luxury goods because there was a hunger and desire to buy.

Yet, when it comes to the politics of Beijing, it would appear the big brands are resigned.

"Back to the attitude of human beings. We are very selfish and very proud. So, each people, each nation wants to show off and sell."

And China is the factory of the world. 

The rise of China as the world's largest consumer of luxury goods has been good for France, which remains the leader in luxury brands.

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 The 'French Touch' 

French companies account for six of the top 10 “houses” with Louis Vuitton at No.1, valued at €47.2 billion, followed by Chanel at €37 billion.

Italy’s Prada at No.10 is a "lowly" €3.5billion.

Lavagna explains why the “French Touch” has resonated so persistently across the globe. 

"French history is so strong, so powerful that to be proud of our French identity, years ago the French government promoted the savoir faire, le talent in different areas. Architecture, Chateau de Versailles, Louvre, the way of eating – gourmet – champagne, drinking … So everything."

In fact, it all goes back to the Sun King, Louis XIV, whose expansion of the Chateau de Versailles under the financial guidance of Jean-Baptiste Colbert established the economic model of importing cheap raw materials, and converting them into coveted, luxury items through French savoir faire.

Fast forward 350 years – from the Sun King's reign to the G7 meeting of world leaders – and host French President Emmanuel Macron in Biarritz used the gathering of the world's most powerful players as an opportunity to showcase French produce and know-how.

Lavagna believes this national grandstanding of opulence and "art de vivre" become the norm when nations host the G7 gatherings, adding that Macron's move to hold the G7 in the Basque resort town of Biarritz was very clever.

"We don't always need to put Paris or Versailles in the spotlight. It could have been another city [other than Biarritz] but it's a part of French history ... it showed that France has a very different landscape," he says.

Reinventing luxury amid climate change

When it comes to the gatherings of the "great and good", protests on the inequities of the modern world are sure to follow to highlight the impact of climate change, environmental degradation and collapsing biodiversity. 

With these challenges at the fore of modern political debate, what lies ahead for the use of luxury as a geopolitical tool? How have the “great houses” adapted to the next generation’s demand for sustainability and ethical production?

Critics maintain that any moves by high-end brands to move towards carbon neutrality or reduce environmental impact has been done in the name of upholding the image of luxury brands. 

Lavagna remains sanguine on the issue. "You try, right?" Yet the success of brands can also hold them to ransom. 

"It's what's called mass prestige," says Lavagna. "If you're successful, you produce more, you sell more. But in the end, everybody has the same items, so it's no longer a luxury."

The next generation

In the future, luxury brands have to be very clever, show restraint and get back to their roots.

"Luxury is not perfect, nobody's perfect. But luxury brands have the money and the power to incite a revolution from the inside," Lavagna says.

"The climate change youth generation is right to ask for a more responsible environment and less of a footprint. But don't forget that luxury brands came from nature when the maitre d'art transformed [raw materials] into food, clothes or fragrances.

"So it's time to get back to nature."

Watch full video here.

Written, produced & presented by David Coffey

Recorded, mixed and edited by Cécile Pompeani and Nicolas Doreau

Bruno Lavagna is a consultant in luxury geostrategy and the founding director of 'Be.Exclusive' based in Monaco.

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