Patrick Boyle

The Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2020 was a bit different to usual this year. The Berkshire Annual meeting is often referred to as the Woodstock for Capitalists. The experience goes beyond sitting in an arena and listening to Buffett and co-chairman Charlie Munger riff on the latest goings-on with the company, the stock market, the global economy, and even popular culture. It's a multiday event that gives anyone who attends a new perspective on just how large the Berkshire empire has become and what it means to the company's shareholders.

A range of Berkshire-owned businesses usually fill the exhibit hall and offer discounts. With items from See's candy and Borsheims jewelry to the furnishings of the Nebraska Furniture Mart, kitchen accessories from Pampered Chef, and private aviation services from NetJets, just about everyone will be able to find something to check off their shopping lists.

This year the event was entirely online with Just Warren Buffett and Greg Abel, vice chairman of non-insurance operations present. The event was livestreamed by Yahoo Finance.

Berkshire's chairman and CEO had plenty to say, answering questions compiled by well-known financial journalists and addressing some of the most important issues that Buffett's followers have had on their minds lately.

Buffet spoke for a long time about American history and how it is always smart to bet on human progress. He would not say much about how the coronavirus might harm business conditions in the medium term.

In early April, Berkshire sold substantial amounts of its holdings in Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines, with disclosures necessary because of Berkshire's having held more than 10% of the two airlines' outstanding shares. At the time, it seemed as though Buffett might simply be reducing its positions below 10% to avoid future complications.
However, Buffett reported selling a total of $6.5 billion in stock during April, far more than the Delta and Southwest sales that had been reported and also including shares of United Airlines Holdings and American Airlines Group as well.

Buffett did not blame airline CEOs, who managed their companies well and did a lot of things right. However, he no longer feels that airlines will ever recover to their pre-coronavirus levels, and even two to three years from now, it's possible that not nearly as many people will be flying.

Buffett tried to be optimistic but made many references to some of the worst times in American History. He argued in favor of long term stock ownership, but avoided making any short or medium term positive statements.

Check out my other video uploaded this morning where I outlined the contents of the Berkshire Hathaway annual report and discussed the Buffett Indicator and value investing. https://youtu.be/98KmPmczJ5Y


Buy Patrick's Book Here: https://amzn.to/2J2kF3A
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These full length lectures are being provided for students who are unable to attend live university lectures due to the public health issues associated with Covid 19. I will return to my standard YouTube video format shortly.


Buy The Book Here: https://amzn.to/2Qdj9zu
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In todays video we will learn about options on foreign exchange and index options.

These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. https://amzn.to/2WIoAL0
Check out our website http://www.onfinance.org/

Follow Patrick on twitter here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Options on Stock Indices - what are index options?
A stock market index is a method of measuring the price movements of a basket of stocks in a market. Many indices are cited by the media and are used as benchmarks to measure the performance of portfolios such as mutual funds. Some are price indices and some are total return indices, meaning that they include reinvested dividends over time.
There are a number of different index types. National indices represent the performance of the stock market of a given nation. Sector indices track the performance of specific industry sectors in the market. Ethical indices include only those companies that satisfy certain ecological, religious, or social criteria.
Index options exist on broad-based indices like the S&P500 or the Russell 3000. They also exist on more narrowly based indices like mining indices or semiconductor indices. The global market for exchange-traded stock market index options is notionally valued by the Bank for International Settlements at hundreds of billions per year. When OTC options are added to that, you can see that it is a very large market indeed.
An index option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a basket of stocks, such as the S&P500, at a pre-agreed price on a specified date. An index option is similar to other options contracts, the difference being the underlying instruments are indexes. Index options are typically cash settled.

Uses of Index Options
There are two main reasons that investors will pursue index options.
1. Portfolio insurance: Investors with large stock portfolios may wish to insure their downside risk by buying put options.
2. Speculation: Portfolio managers may wish to use index options to speculate on the direction of the overall market, or on the volatility of the overall market.

Foreign Exchange Options - What are currency options?
A foreign exchange option is a derivative where the owner has the right but not the obligation to exchange money denominated in one currency into another currency at a pre-agreed exchange rate on a specified date. European and American options on foreign exchange are actively traded on both exchanges and OTC. Companies frequently use them to hedge foreign exchange risk, and they are commonly used to speculate on the price and volatility of various foreign exchange pairs. The foreign exchange options market is mostly an OTC market.
A GBP/USD foreign exchange call option, can also be viewed as being a USD/GBP put option, as they each give the option owner the right but not the obligation to exchange a certain amount of US dollars for British pounds at a pre-agreed exchange rate on a specified date.
The Black-Scholes model can be modified to price options on foreign exchange. The modified Black-Scholes model was developed in 1983 by Garman and Kohlhagen and is known as the Garman-Kohlhagen model. It is a modification of the Black-Scholes model which accounts for the different interest rates of each currency.
You can think of options on currencies as being an options position with an annual percentage dividend embedded in the form of the foreign currencies’ risk-free rate.

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A three-bedroom "dunger" in New Zealand with peeling paint and boarded-up windows sold for 1.81 million dollars at the peak of the boom. A few years later, prices had fallen by as much as a third in real terms, recent buyers were trapped in negative equity, and thousands of construction firms had gone under. In this video we look at how a national housing boom turns into a bust, why house prices became so unaffordable in the first place, and what it means for an economy when the family home stops being a place to live and becomes a leveraged investment.

Along the way we cover the interest-rate math behind home affordability and why falling mortgage rates inflated prices for forty years, the politics of why governments keep house prices rising, why high housing costs drive young workers to emigrate, and the lessons from past property crashes in Japan, the United States, and Ireland. We also look at Henry George's argument for a land value tax, Edward Leamer's "Housing IS the Business Cycle," and why an efficient property market matters for the whole economy. Whether you're in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, or anywhere else watching house prices climb out of reach, the underlying dynamics are the same.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social

Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]

Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve

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These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. https://amzn.to/2WIoAL0
Check out our website http://www.onfinance.org/

Follow Patrick on twitter here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

What is Options Delta?

The first Greek we will learn about in this video series is Delta, which measures how much an option's price will change for a 1% change in the price of the underlying security or index. For example, a Delta of 0.40 means that the option's price will theoretically move $0.40 for every $1 move in the price of the underlying stock or index.

Call options

Have a positive Delta that can range from zero to 1.00.
At-the-money options usually have a Delta near .50.
The Delta will increase (and approach 1.00) as the option gets deeper in the money.
The Delta of in-the-money call options will get closer to 1.00 as expiration approaches.
The Delta of out-of-the-money call options will get closer to zero as expiration approaches.

Put option Delta

Put options have a negative Delta that can range from zero to -1.00.
At-the-money options usually have a Delta near -.50.
The Delta will decrease (and approach -1.00) as the option gets deeper in the money.
The Delta of in-the-money put options will get closer to -1.00 as expiration approaches.
The Delta of out-of-the-money put options will get closer to zero as expiration approaches.
You also might think of Delta, as the percent chance (or probability) that a given option will expire in the money.

For example, a Delta of 0.40 means the option has about a 40% chance of being in the money at expiration. This doesn’t mean your trade will be profitable. That of course, depends on the price at which you bought or sold the option.

You also might think of Delta, as the number of shares of the underlying stock, the option behaves like.

A Delta of 0.40 also means that given a $1 move in the underlying stock, the option will likely gain or lose about the same amount of money as 40 shares of the stock.


Tune in tomorrow for a video on Delta Hedging.

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In todays video we learn about currency swaps.

These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. https://amzn.to/2WIoAL0
Check out our website http://www.onfinance.org/

Follow Patrick on twitter here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

What are currency swaps?
A currency swap is a financial derivatives agreement in which two parties exchange the principal amount of a loan and the interest in one currency for the principal and interest in another currency.

At the inception of the swap, the equivalent principal amounts are exchanged at the spot rate.

During the length of the swap each party pays the interest on the swapped principal loan amount.

At the end of the swap the principal amounts are swapped back at either the prevailing spot rate, or at a pre-agreed rate such as the rate of the original exchange of principals. Using the original rate would remove transaction risk on the swap.

Currency swaps are used to obtain foreign currency loans at a better interest rate than a company could obtain by borrowing directly in a foreign market or as a method of hedging transaction risk on foreign currency loans which it has already taken out.

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All slides are available on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance

In todays Applied Portfolio Management class we learn about private equity, venture capital, growth capital funds and venture capital. We learn about fund structures, risk and historic returns.

Some books mentioned in the video

Corporate Finance by McDougall and Boyle https://amzn.to/3arsuvH
Zero to One by Peter Thiel https://amzn.to/2yidbHx
Barbarians at the Gate. https://amzn.to/2UE07Uk

The film Wall Street: https://amzn.to/2WSHVci

Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives: https://amzn.to/2J2kF3A
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

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Get 50% off your first order of CookUnity meals — go to https://cookunity.com/pboyle50 and use my code PBOYLE50 at checkout to try them out for yourself! Thanks to CookUnity for sponsoring this video!

Argentina’s president Javier Milei has been rocked by a scandal over his promotion of a memecoin called $LIBRA which soared in value before collapsing last week, triggering lawsuits and calls for impeachment.

Buyers of the cryptocurrency accused the coin’s creators of - what is known as a “rug pull” scheme, a type of crypto pump and dump scheme - where the promoters draw in buyers, only to stop trading and make off with the money raised from token sales.

The same team who launched the Argentina linked meme token are also behind Donald Trump's wife's Melania Coin - which performed similarly.

In today's video we discuss whether elected representatives should be involved in cryptocurrency investments.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social

Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]

Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve

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Coffeezilla Libra Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqizJTbxAEM&t=3261s

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Taking care of your health just got easier, thanks to my sponsor Zocdoc! Start here at: https://zocdoc.com/patrickboyle

Last week, 24-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner — former FTX staffer, ex-OpenAI researcher, and author of the viral 165-page essay "Situational Awareness" — managed to lose roughly two-thirds of his $45 billion hedge fund in a matter of weeks. The margin calls arrived during his wedding weekend.

In this video I break down how a trader with no professional experience raised billions from Silicon Valley, why his AI "hedge" wasn't a hedge at all, and how leverage plus a concentrated bet on artificial intelligence stocks turned a great-looking expected return into a catastrophic outcome. Along the way we look at the cultural gap between Silicon Valley and Wall Street, why Ken Griffin's Citadel ended up buying the collapsing portfolio in an overnight fire sale, and the maths of volatility drag — the reason a high expected return can still drag an investor's typical outcome straight into the ground.

It's a story about leverage, risk management, expected versus median returns, and what happens when you go "full Kelly." Featuring reporting from the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Bloomberg, and the Financial Times, plus Victor Haghani's lessons from The Missing Billionaires.

Victor Haghani - The Missing Billionaires book: https://amzn.to/4fQUEEB
Elm Wealth Website: https://elmwealth.com/

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social

Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]

Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve

Join this channel to support making this content:
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