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A three-bedroom "dunger" in New Zealand with peeling paint and boarded-up windows sold for 1.81 million dollars at the peak of the boom. A few years later, prices had fallen by as much as a third in real terms, recent buyers were trapped in negative equity, and thousands of construction firms had gone under. In this video we look at how a national housing boom turns into a bust, why house prices became so unaffordable in the first place, and what it means for an economy when the family home stops being a place to live and becomes a leveraged investment.
Along the way we cover the interest-rate math behind home affordability and why falling mortgage rates inflated prices for forty years, the politics of why governments keep house prices rising, why high housing costs drive young workers to emigrate, and the lessons from past property crashes in Japan, the United States, and Ireland. We also look at Henry George's argument for a land value tax, Edward Leamer's "Housing IS the Business Cycle," and why an efficient property market matters for the whole economy. Whether you're in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, or anywhere else watching house prices climb out of reach, the underlying dynamics are the same.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social
Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]
Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve
Join this channel to support making this content:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCASM0cgfkJxQ1ICmRilfHLw/join
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. https://amzn.to/2WIoAL0
Check out our website http://www.onfinance.org/
Follow Patrick on twitter here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
What is Options Delta?
The first Greek we will learn about in this video series is Delta, which measures how much an option's price will change for a 1% change in the price of the underlying security or index. For example, a Delta of 0.40 means that the option's price will theoretically move $0.40 for every $1 move in the price of the underlying stock or index.
Call options
Have a positive Delta that can range from zero to 1.00.
At-the-money options usually have a Delta near .50.
The Delta will increase (and approach 1.00) as the option gets deeper in the money.
The Delta of in-the-money call options will get closer to 1.00 as expiration approaches.
The Delta of out-of-the-money call options will get closer to zero as expiration approaches.
Put option Delta
Put options have a negative Delta that can range from zero to -1.00.
At-the-money options usually have a Delta near -.50.
The Delta will decrease (and approach -1.00) as the option gets deeper in the money.
The Delta of in-the-money put options will get closer to -1.00 as expiration approaches.
The Delta of out-of-the-money put options will get closer to zero as expiration approaches.
You also might think of Delta, as the percent chance (or probability) that a given option will expire in the money.
For example, a Delta of 0.40 means the option has about a 40% chance of being in the money at expiration. This doesn’t mean your trade will be profitable. That of course, depends on the price at which you bought or sold the option.
You also might think of Delta, as the number of shares of the underlying stock, the option behaves like.
A Delta of 0.40 also means that given a $1 move in the underlying stock, the option will likely gain or lose about the same amount of money as 40 shares of the stock.
Tune in tomorrow for a video on Delta Hedging.
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In todays video we learn about currency swaps.
These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. https://amzn.to/2WIoAL0
Check out our website http://www.onfinance.org/
Follow Patrick on twitter here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
What are currency swaps?
A currency swap is a financial derivatives agreement in which two parties exchange the principal amount of a loan and the interest in one currency for the principal and interest in another currency.
At the inception of the swap, the equivalent principal amounts are exchanged at the spot rate.
During the length of the swap each party pays the interest on the swapped principal loan amount.
At the end of the swap the principal amounts are swapped back at either the prevailing spot rate, or at a pre-agreed rate such as the rate of the original exchange of principals. Using the original rate would remove transaction risk on the swap.
Currency swaps are used to obtain foreign currency loans at a better interest rate than a company could obtain by borrowing directly in a foreign market or as a method of hedging transaction risk on foreign currency loans which it has already taken out.
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All slides are available on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
In todays Applied Portfolio Management class we learn about private equity, venture capital, growth capital funds and venture capital. We learn about fund structures, risk and historic returns.
Some books mentioned in the video
Corporate Finance by McDougall and Boyle https://amzn.to/3arsuvH
Zero to One by Peter Thiel https://amzn.to/2yidbHx
Barbarians at the Gate. https://amzn.to/2UE07Uk
The film Wall Street: https://amzn.to/2WSHVci
Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives: https://amzn.to/2J2kF3A
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
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Get 50% off your first order of CookUnity meals — go to https://cookunity.com/pboyle50 and use my code PBOYLE50 at checkout to try them out for yourself! Thanks to CookUnity for sponsoring this video!
Argentina’s president Javier Milei has been rocked by a scandal over his promotion of a memecoin called $LIBRA which soared in value before collapsing last week, triggering lawsuits and calls for impeachment.
Buyers of the cryptocurrency accused the coin’s creators of - what is known as a “rug pull” scheme, a type of crypto pump and dump scheme - where the promoters draw in buyers, only to stop trading and make off with the money raised from token sales.
The same team who launched the Argentina linked meme token are also behind Donald Trump's wife's Melania Coin - which performed similarly.
In today's video we discuss whether elected representatives should be involved in cryptocurrency investments.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social
Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]
Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve
Join this channel to support making this content:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCASM0cgfkJxQ1ICmRilfHLw/join
Coffeezilla Libra Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqizJTbxAEM&t=3261s
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Taking care of your health just got easier, thanks to my sponsor Zocdoc! Start here at: https://zocdoc.com/patrickboyle
Last week, 24-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner — former FTX staffer, ex-OpenAI researcher, and author of the viral 165-page essay "Situational Awareness" — managed to lose roughly two-thirds of his $45 billion hedge fund in a matter of weeks. The margin calls arrived during his wedding weekend.
In this video I break down how a trader with no professional experience raised billions from Silicon Valley, why his AI "hedge" wasn't a hedge at all, and how leverage plus a concentrated bet on artificial intelligence stocks turned a great-looking expected return into a catastrophic outcome. Along the way we look at the cultural gap between Silicon Valley and Wall Street, why Ken Griffin's Citadel ended up buying the collapsing portfolio in an overnight fire sale, and the maths of volatility drag — the reason a high expected return can still drag an investor's typical outcome straight into the ground.
It's a story about leverage, risk management, expected versus median returns, and what happens when you go "full Kelly." Featuring reporting from the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Bloomberg, and the Financial Times, plus Victor Haghani's lessons from The Missing Billionaires.
Victor Haghani - The Missing Billionaires book: https://amzn.to/4fQUEEB
Elm Wealth Website: https://elmwealth.com/
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social
Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]
Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve
Join this channel to support making this content:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCASM0cgfkJxQ1ICmRilfHLw/join
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real options valuation, also often termed real options analysis, applies option valuation techniques to capital budgeting decisions.
These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. https://amzn.to/2WIoAL0
Check out our website http://www.onfinance.org/
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Follow Patrick on twitter here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
A real option itself, is the right but not the obligation to undertake certain business initiatives, such as deferring, abandoning, expanding, staging, or contracting a capital investment project. For example, the opportunity to invest in the expansion of a firm's factory, or alternatively to sell the factory, is a real call or put option, respectively.
Real options are generally distinguished from conventional financial options in that they are not typically traded as securities, and do not usually involve decisions on an underlying asset that is traded as a financial security. A further distinction is that option holders here, i.e. management, can directly influence the value of the option's underlying project; whereas this is not a consideration as regards the underlying security of a financial option. Moreover, management cannot measure uncertainty in terms of volatility, and must instead rely on their perceptions of uncertainty. Unlike financial options, management also have to create or discover real options, and such creation and discovery process comprises an entrepreneurial or business task. Real options are most valuable when uncertainty is high; management has significant flexibility to change the course of the project in a favorable direction and is willing to exercise the options.
Real options analysis, as a discipline, extends from its application in corporate finance, to decision making under uncertainty in general, adapting the techniques developed for financial options to "real-life" decisions. For example, R&D managers can use Real Options Valuation to help them allocate their R&D budget among diverse projects; a non business example might be the decision to join the work force, or rather, to forgo several years of income to attend graduate school. It, thus, forces decision makers to be explicit about the assumptions underlying their projections, and for this reason ROV is increasingly employed as a tool in business strategy formulation. This extension of real options to real-world projects often requires customized decision support systems, because otherwise the complex compound real options will become too intractable to handle.
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To try everything Brilliant has to offer for free for a full 30 days, visit https://brilliant.org/patrick/ You’ll also get 20% off an annual premium subscription.
Automakers are hedging their bets on electric vehicles and stepping up their investment in hybrid cars as consumers’ growing disinterest in fully electric vehicles has forced the industry to shift gear.
A combination of high EV depreciation and concern over inadequate charging infrastructure has chilled buyers’ enthusiasm for fully electric cars, prompting a rebound in sales of hybrid vehicles that many automakers had ignored.
Volvo scrapped its target of going all electric by 2030 last week, saying it now expected to still be offering some hybrid models in its lineup at that time.
@EdBolian Audi e-tron video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sU8HBNM6LTo&t=33s
@carwow EV Depreciation video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGS34ENu4S4
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]
Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve
Join this channel to support making this content:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCASM0cgfkJxQ1ICmRilfHLw/join
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Go to http://ground.news/pb for a better way to stay informed. Subscribe for 40% off unlimited access to worldwide coverage through my link.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying to force down US Treasury yields with surprise bond buybacks — and it isn't working. In this video we break down Bessent's activist debt management strategy, why doubling the Treasury's long-dated buybacks is a bet on falling interest rates funded by short-term bills, and why his old boss Stanley Druckenmiller publicly tore the plan apart in a Wall Street Journal op-ed ("Let the Bond Market Speak"). We look at the collision with new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh after Jackson Hole, the 50% tariffs on Canada and the Mark Carney feud, "Operation Economic Outcast" and the secondary-sanctions problem with China and Iranian oil, the GENIUS Act and crypto's role in sanctions evasion, and Stephen Miran's case for the defense. The through-line: you can't trade around arithmetic. When a government goes to war with market prices, the bond market has an infinite balance sheet — and prices tend to win.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social
Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]
Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve
Join this channel to support making this content:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCASM0cgfkJxQ1ICmRilfHLw/join
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Go to https://ground.news/pb to get up to 40% off unlimited access to stay fully informed. Subscribe through my link this month for 40% off unlimited access.
Americans have ben rushing to change their cars as President Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported cars and car parts remain in effect despite the deferral of other country-based taxes that were announced last week.
Analysts are predicting a drop in vehicle sales, higher new and used car prices, and increased industry costs of more than $100 billion dollars. How will you be affected by Trump's new car tariffs?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social
Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]
Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve
Join this channel to support making this content:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCASM0cgfkJxQ1ICmRilfHLw/join
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