HRC has about 12 million votes so far. Bernie, including the unreported popular caucus totals has a bit more than 10, closer to 11. We have about a fourth of the voters to go in the primary process. Obama won in 2012 with about 66 million in the popular vote. Trump is perhaps the most popular primary candidate among Republicans ever, with about 10 million votes so far. Obama won 2012 by 5 million, 2008 by 10, Bush 2004 by 3, and Gore 2000 by .6.
The links at the end of this piece show current primary totals, historical general results and a statistical estimate of what the caucus results would mean if the popular votes were reported.
Points:
ONE
Before we're done, Bernie will have gotten more than 14 million people to vote for him, in all likelihood, more than twice the number needed to win an election this century and more than needed to win any election this century (I mean more than the margin or difference in every election). We are an important demographic already, not considering the millions more who were motivated to vote could not vote because of closed primary rules who are every bit feeling the Bern... maybe another 4 or 5 million already down. So, the current Bernie constituency represents about 18 million active voters or more than 25% of what you need to win. I know there is a lot more potential support out there, I mean who already know Bernie now and are supporters now.
TWO
You can't predict a general election based on a primary. You may need at least 5 times as many votes as you get in the general as you get in the primary. Even if you add all the votes in your party's primary for yourself and your opposition, you will need to way more than double the total. The procedure for adding these two columns of voters is called unifying the party and is a prerequisite for victory. To say your candidate is electable because he/she won a primary is obviously nonsense (as if looking at the candidates ahead in the process were not sufficient to confirm that bad general election candidates can win primaries).
Poltifact says that 25% of us won't support HRC in the general, or more than 4 million people. Then the article below compares 2008 to 2016 and concludes that in the end we will all move over to vote for HRC and she is right that she doesn't need to worry about us very much. But, did her supporters have a Facebook page like this in 2008 to support our organized resistance?
CONCLUSION
We are a huge constituency, well organized, with clear leadership, a massive fundraising capacity, and very clear policy goals. In fact, we are the only constituency with these characteristics.
And that is how we are NOW. By November, with the nomination, there is no telling where we'd be.
http://www.politifact.com/…/hillary-clinton-history-shows-…/
https://en.wikipedia.org/…/List_of_United_States_presidenti…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/…/democratic_vote_count.ht…
https://www.reddit.com/…/sanders_and_clintons_popular_vote…/
