Today’s show is about what I consider the biggest mystery of the U.S. economy. Last year, economic experts predicted a recession in 2023 with more confidence than they’ve predicted any recession in decades. We ended up with what some people are calling immaculate disinflation: an economy with low unemployment, falling inflation, rising real wages, and narrowing inequality. Harvard economist Jason Furman joins the show to talk about why so many economists were so wrong and what their wrongness teaches us about how the economy works.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jason Furman

Producer: Devon Manze

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Less than 1 percent of college students attend Ivy League colleges and equally selective schools, like Stanford and Duke. But these schools have an outsize influence on American life. Practically every Supreme Court justice of the last 40 years, 25 percent of the U.S. Senate, and one in eight Fortune 500 CEOs went to these schools. A new study on their admissions programs finds that they are heavily biased toward children from rich families. For applicants with the same SAT score, kids from families in the top 0.1 percent were more than twice as likely to get in compared to the average student. A coauthor on that paper, Harvard economist David Deming, talks to Derek about what his landmark study tells us about college, fairness, and the American Dream.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. 

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: David Deming

Producer: Devon Manze

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Richard Rhodes, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of 'The Making of the Atomic Bomb,' discusses the life of J. Robert Oppenheimer, the Manhattan Project, the history of nuclear weapons, and the new film on his life by Christopher Nolan.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Richard Rhodes

Producer: Devon Manze

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The trouble brewing in the media and entertainment industry has become one of the most interesting—and truly perplexing—business stories in the world. How does everything seem so bad at the same time? The domestic box office is still in a recession. Pay TV is a nightmare. Streaming is a money pit. And actors and writers are on strike. How did this happen? And could it get worse before it gets better? Today’s guest is Julia Alexander, director of strategy for Parrot Analytics and a writer with Puck News. We discuss a brief history of Hollywood, how we got to this point, how Disney’s plight in particular tells a story of how streaming has roiled this town, how the strikes fit into this picture, and what these companies should do now.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Julia Alexander

Producer: Devon Manze

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

By many measures, this is one of the best times to find a job in decades. And by many measures, Americans are locked in a state of extreme glumness about the country. Jordan Weissmann, Washington editor at Semafor, rejoins the show to talk about why the economy is much better than many Americans—and many economic commentators—think, and whether "Bidenomics" can fix what ails us.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Jordan Weissmann

Producer: Devon Manze

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Calvin Newport is a computer science professor at Georgetown University and the author of, among other books, 'Deep Work' and 'A World Without Email.' At the heart of so much of Newport’s work is this incredibly rich mystery: Why hasn't the internet produced more geniuses? One possibility is that the productivity tools ironically inhibit our productivity. The average white-collar worker in marketing, advertising, finance, and media now spends up to 60 percent of the workweek engaged in electronic communication. In a recent survey, Microsoft found that video meetings had taken up so much of the day that a significant share of its workforce was logging online between 9 and 10 p.m. to finish their actual non-email, non-meeting work. In response to this relentless need to loop back and back and back, Newport came up with what he called the Deep Work Hypothesis: He said to learn hard things quickly, you must focus intensely without distraction. But the ability to perform this kind of deep focused work is becoming rare at exactly the same time it is becoming most valuable in our economy. In this conversation, we talk about deep work and shallow work, how our productivity tools make us less productive, and how to actually get things done.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Calvin Newport

Producer: Devon Manze

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

University of Chicago professor Paul Poast breaks down Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion, Vladimir Putin's weakness, Russia's military incompetence, and the long-term implications of Saturday's bizarre 36-hour rebellion.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Paul Poast

Producer: Devon Manze

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is the first in a new miniseries about getting stuff done. This episode in particular is about NOT getting stuff done.

I consider myself an exceptional procrastinator. There are many times when I sit down at my computer to accomplish one task—say, answer my email; write five paragraphs—where I’ll immediately get swept into a text conversation, which will lead to some snooping around ESPN, which will remind me I should check The Atlantic homepage, where I’ll open three articles in separate tabs, and those articles will birth even more tabs, but they’re long articles and I want some coffee as a companion so maybe I should make some coffee, so I listen to a podcast while I do that, and I might as well check Twitter while I’m listening to the show, and three hours later, I’ve written absolutely nothing.

I’ve spent way too much time thinking about procrastination, which is why it was such a pleasure to think out loud about it with an actual scientist: Tim Pychyl, a retired professor of psychology at Carleton University and a long-time productivity researcher.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Tim Pychyl

Producer: Devon Manze

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last year, there were 3,661,220 babies born in the U.S. That sounds like a lot. But historically speaking, it’s really not. It’s actually 15 percent below our peak in 2007. And it means America’s total fertility rate—the average number of babies a woman today is expected to have in her lifetime, based on current trends—is essentially stuck at its all-time record low. For decades, the U.S. birthrate has been below the so-called replacement level of 2.1. Today it’s around 1.6.

Sometimes, I feel a little weird talking about fertility and birthrates like they’re just ordinary numbers with decimal points, like monthly used-car inflation. Fertility is complicated. It is emotional. And it is private. But I’m fascinated by this issue because the collective private decisions of hundreds of millions of families really do shape the future of population growth. And there’s just no getting around the fact that population growth is one of the most important factors in determining economic growth, tax revenue, productivity, innovation, and public finance.

We’re in a moment now in world history where every major country is projected to have a shrinking population in the next 20 years. No country gives us a better glimpse of this impending future than South Korea. In 1960, the average Korean woman had six children. Today, Korean woman average less than one child. Today, the country has the world’s lowest fertility rate.

Today’s guest is Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies and a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C. In this episode, we look at this thorny and important issue by first zooming in to South Korea, where Andrew gives me an education on a country I’m extremely curious about, but frankly know very little about. And then we zoom out and talk about how South Korea is a canary in the coal mine for the rest of the planet when it comes to the many ways that fertility rates affect just about everything else.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Andrew Yeo

Producer: Devon Manze

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today’s episode is about the state of men in America. Last week, the non-profit institute Equimondo published a report on the state of men and boys in America: “Many men—especially younger men—are socially disconnected, pessimistic about the future, and turning to online anger," they wrote. "They are facing higher rates of depressive symptoms, suicidal thoughts, and a sense of isolation, as seen in the agreement of 65 percent that 'no one really knows me well.'" One survey is one survey. It doesn’t do a lot of good to overreact and proclaim one set of findings the iron law of American sociology. But this report is in line with other polls and also with the analyses of experts like Richard Reeves, the Brookings scholar who wrote the book ‘Of Boys and Men.’ Richard is today’s returning guest. We talk about how complaining about masculinity is history’s oldest trope; why this time might be different; what young men think about feminism; the effect of social media on boys and why it might be different than the effect of social media on girls; and what a positive version of masculinity might look like.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at [email protected]. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Richard Reeves 

Producer: Devon Manze

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices