This week’s pod discusses the outlook for Europe’s gas market for the coming months, as prices have fallen to around EUR 50/MWh – still historically high, but far below those of last autumn. Do low prices spell the end of the energy crisis, or should we expect further supply disruptions. Listen to a discussion on current market dynamics, what it would take to trigger a price surge and why the price cap is pointless.

Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
Guest: Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG

The European Commission has launched a consultation on the future market design of wholesale energy markets. Under pressure to shield consumers, industry and households from high prices it seeks to undertake comprehensive reforms. Listen to a discussion of what the the consequences will be for markets, particularly regarding the fine balance between affordability and supply security. Could the proposals to boost renewables through CFDs and PPAs mean a larger role for national governments and the end of forward markets as we know them?

Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
Guest: Stephen Woodhouse, Director, Afry Management Consulting

European carbon prices have climbed since mid-January, with the benchmark contract threatening to breach EUR 100/t before falling on Thursday. Has the upturn been driven by a return of speculators or are companies buying to balance their books ahead of the deadline on 30 April? Listen to a discussion on current market dynamics and whether prices could hit EUR 100/t? In addition, we debate the complex web of policies that will impact the market in the months and years to come.

Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
Guest: Ingvild Sørhus, Lead EU Carbon Analyst, Greenfact

The US’s Inflation Reduction Act – a USD 400bn package of subsidies and tax credits to help spur renewable energy and projects to slash emissions – has rattled European governments and politicians. Some European companies have already announced they are looking to build green energy projects in the US, while EU officials are looking for ways to keep them closer to home. Listen to a discussion on the likelihood of a tit for tat trade war and consequences for net-zero emissions targets. 

Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
Guest: Niclas Frederic Poitiers, Research Fellow, Bruegel

The flurry of European countries introducing revenue caps on electricity production from renewable sources is largely intended to shield industry and households from soaring prices. But some in the industry fear these interventions may deter much-needed investments in green energy. Listen to a discussion on whether these fears are justified and on other concerns about long-term changes to the current wholesale market design.

Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
Guest: Kristian Ruby, Secretary-general of Eurelectric.

Europe’s green energy transition risks stalling amid a patchwork of regulation across the 27-nation bloc intended to tax surplus revenues of renewable energy generators. This could also impact the important PPA market, where corporates dominated the sector in 2022. Listen to a discussion about the trends expected for 2023 and how interventions could affect the market and the burgeoning green PPA sector.

 Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
 Guest: Dominique Hischier, Head of Analysis, Pexapark

Discussions over potential extensions to the lifespans of German nuclear reactors could lead to several unforeseen consequences and will be like opening Pandora’s box, says Tobias Federico of Energy Brainpool. Listen to a discussion on how Germany managed to replace Russian gas supplies – at a cost – and the challenges ahead for the country in meeting its climate goals. Is the use of fossil fuels a temporary blip or a more permanent feature of the energy crisis?

 Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
 Guest: Tobias Federico, Managing Director, Energy Brainpool

The EU gas price cap agreed this week by energy ministers is intended to protect gas consumers from soaring prices, but if triggered may lead to reduced supply and increased demand. Listen to a discussion on why the measure could end up being simply a symbolic gesture, as market participants will find ways of circumventing it. There are also concerns about the creation and implementation of an LNG index – could this lead to market manipulation? Also, the cap could trigger the departure of the Ice exchange from Europe’s wholesale gas market, with worrying repercussions for financial instability.

Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel
Guest: James Waddell, Head of European Gas and Global LNG, Energy Aspects.

In the second of two episodes summarising the momentous energy events of 2022, we focus on the developments in the Nordic region, Germany and the coal and gas markets. Listen to a discussion on the impact of record low reservoir levels in Norway, ongoing nuclear issues in Sweden and Finland as well as increased political interference. How did Germany cope with the sudden loss of Russian gas, and what is the outlook for the global LNG and coal markets in 2023? 

Guests: Gert Ove Mollestad, Editor Norway, Montel; Olav Vilnes, Editor Nordics, Montel; Andreas Lochner, Editor Germany, Montel; Julia Demirdag, Germany Correspondent, Montel; Laurence Walker, Coal and Gas Editor, Montel. 

In the first of two episodes summarising the momentous energy events of 2022, we focus on the dramatic developments in guarantees of origin market, compare the expansion of renewables in Spain and Italy and discuss ongoing nuclear problems in France. Will next year bring relief to strained markets, or will concerns over security of supply linger?
 Tune in next week for part two.

Guests: Rachael Burnett, Correspondent Spain, Montel; Enza Tedesco, Correspondent Spain, Montel; Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel; Muriel Boselli, Correspondent, France, Montel.