Podcast Archive

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A few things moving today including APT up 8% on the back of a Morgan Stanley target price upgrade and the Affirm (BNPL company) IPO in the US (up 98% on day one). Banks also on the rise on broker research suggesting a return to 70% payout ratios and PME up on a contract win (and Chris has done a new STOCK WATCH video about it today in the TRADING IDEAS section). Meanwhile today's podcast provides a bit of education about the limits of fundamental analysis. You can't identify stocks like APT when they don't have any earnings, but there is money to be made. You just have to ignore the Buffettesque approach to stock analysis sometimes, it blinds you to concept stocks and relies on what is "known", when share prices move on what is "unknown".  Essential training for Marcus Today Members. 

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We are into the Confession Season and it cuts both ways - PMV up 13% today as they tell us to expect great results in February (earnings up 75-85%). All retailers flying today in anticipation of similarly good results this time around. Pandemic beneficiaries (online anything, retail, motor stocks) are going to be reporting on their best six months in history just as the pandemic victims (tourism, travel leisure, gambling, REITs, energy) report on their worst six months in history.  Iron rote results should also be stellar. Cur regular results article "Blow up or go up". A few stock comments today. Some Technical observations, and some reasons to be fully invested this week. 

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Good Morning everybody and Welcome to 2021. Today we look at what we missed, what themes are currently driving the market and what themes we can expect for 2021. The summary includes - Expecting a bull market to continue until it doesn't, sticking with resources until the iron ore price tops out, looking to get back into the energy sector which still has a long way to recover, looking to buy back into travel and tourism and other recovery sectors assuming an efficient vaccine roll out, holding banks for income, looking to buy healthcare if the A$ tops out, looking to buy gold if the market goes to hell in a basket and stock picking technology which is topping out at the moment and still in La La Land when it comes to valuation. AS usual, plenty of positives and negatives, for now the positives have it. 

A very quiet week on the corporate calendar, with plenty of executives still away working on their tan. Brisbane is out of lockdown tomorrow but chaos reigns supreme in the US as Biden encourages the market with a plan for "trillions" more in support. The economic front starts to get busy this week with plenty of drops globally. Plus, our technical observations are back with a few interesting stocks showing RSI buy signals. 

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Lockdowns are back on the agenda as the Sydney outbreak rises to 83, restrictions return and the other states put NSW in exile. Elsewhere, after almost nine months of stimulus negotiations, the Republicans and Democrats have finally agreed on another relief package. Despite the headlines it does look like we have a pretty quiet week ahead, with just three full sessions before we hit the Christmas holiday period. Plus, don't forget to register for our biggest webinar yet, with Marcus putting the finishing touches on 2020 and getting you ready for a big year ahead on Wednesday. 

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We seem to be rolling quietly into the Christmas Buffers in a quiet bull market. Lets hope it remains this way for the holiday and for next year as well. A quiet bull market will suit us all nicely after an anxious year this year. Not too much to tell you about today - you can read about a few buy and sell signals and for your reading pleasure have included one of my favourite quotes and an article about what could possibly be more important than money.

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A good lead from Wall St and the recovery is back on. Travel flying, banks strong and vaccine roll-out going smoothly. Even hints of a stimulus bill...about time. 2021 is shaping up to be a year of recovery absent the political volatility and unpredictability. Today we look at whether BHP, RIO and FMG are expensive and debate whether to respond to recent short term sell signals. We have the usual technical observations. ANZ paid its dividend today to coincide with its AGM which suggested they haven't lost a dollar in defaults because of COVID and have therefore over-provided which may mean share buybacks from all the banks next year.  Westpac pays its dividend on Friday. NAB AGM on Friday.

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Thank you very much to everyone that sponsored my Team for "The Longest Day" playing 72 holes of gold in a day yesterday for the Cancer Council and awareness of skin cancer. Much appreciated. We tee'd off at 6:18am and left the last green at 7:40pm. Marathon stuff. Sore this morning! Today in the strategy piece we talk about "Peak Optimism" and the market running out of steam. We also talk about the Bank sector and whilst the themes are good, they are now, according to the brokers, looking overvalued after a fabulous run this month. 

 A quiet Monday morning as was expected, with vaccine updates still holding the headlines. A bit of a focus on central banks this week with the FOMC, BoE, and BoJ all meeting. Outside of that things are slowing down as we approach the Christmas shutdown period. 30 RSI sell signals on the scan again today and just the one buy signal. Plus, updates on Marcus' "Longest Day" as he raises money for the Cancer Council by playing 72 holes of golf in a day. 

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This week, we finish the year off with a sit down with an old favourite, Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners. Adam and Henry chat about 2020, some of the lessons learned, his top three picks for 2021 and what the ‘Black Swan’ event could be to upset the Australian economy and the market in 2021. 

Adam is a familiar face to many of you appearing regularly on Ausbiz, SBS, the ABC and CNBC where the Bank of Japan is his specialised subject. Adam has been very generous with his time since we launched the podcast earlier this year, and this is his fourth episode of ‘On the Couch’ this year and hopefully we can get him back in 2021.