US stocks bounced as the world seemed a little less fraught. Boosting by a strong PMI manufacturing number. Oil prices fell sharply as Iran tensions eased. Gold and silver are still cooling, and the USD looks like it will stabilise from here. There’s no big American debt crack up imminent. US President Trump said a trade deal with India would see their tariffs cut from 50% to 18% in exchange, at least in part, for discontinuing to buy Russian oil and ordering American barrels instead. Indian PM Modi will lower Indian tariffs and buy American goods and services too. Details are, as ever, light. The S&P500 and the Nasdaq liked it anyway, and rose 0.5% each.

Disney is likely less enamoured with Trump. International visitors are going to the USA in less numbers (6% less in 2025), and it’s hitting their theme park numbers. It’s TV and film division isn’t running on all cylinders either. The shares dropped 5% after its earnings report came out. Elon Musk's SpaceX and xAI are set to merge for a combined valuation of $1.25T. Trump announced a $12bn strategic minerals stockpile to reduce China reliance. Uranium and nuclear stocks down while copper miners had a tentative bounce. BHP and RIO both up in the US.

SPI up 97 - Commodities steady. Ish!

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ASX 200 down 91 points to 8779 (-1.0%) as losses accelerated across Asia. 30-point rally into the close helped somewhat. South Korea was smashed over 4% on AI spending fears and gold and silver fell hard as did oil, as selling spilled over to other assets. Here the banks held up on defensive buying and CBA regained its crown as Number 1. Up 1.4%. The Big Bank Basket higher at $270.11 (0.7%). Other financials under some pressure, MQG falling 0.2% with QBE down 1.0% and SOL falling 2.6%. REITs dipped, GMG down 0.1% and SCG off 1.0%. Healthcare too under pressure, RMD down 1.3% and CSL dropping 2.4%. Tech once again skewered, WTC down 2.7% and TNE falling 0.9%. The All -Tech Index fell 1.2%.

Resources bore the brunt of the selling, BHP down 2.3% as copper fell in Asia, RIO off 1.0% and the gold miners under serious pressure, although there were some signs of buying. NST dropped 8.1% and EVN down 5.6% with NEM falling 10.0%. Most arrested declines although failed to bounce. Base metals, copper and lithium stocks also under pressure, LYC down 0.9%, LTR falling 4.0% and MIN dropping 1.5%. Oil and gas stocks under pressure too as crude unravelled on more optimistic Trump tweets on Iran. WDS fell 1.8% and STO down 3.3%. Uranium stocks slid too, as shorts stepped back in.

In corporate news, CTD founder and CEO resigned. The stock is still in a trading halt. GNC crashed 14.0% after a guidance update to 30% below consensus on EBITDA. KMD fell 5.2% despite an upbeat sales guidance release.

On the economic front, all eyes on the RBA tomorrow. HSBC says it will be the first G10 country to raise rates. Asian markets fell as risk unwound. South Korea fell 4.3% amidst concerns about the sustainability of AI-related spending. US Futures weaker, Nasdaq down 1.3%, Dow down 347. 10-year yields steady at 4.82%.

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US equities finished down in Friday trading, though ended off worst levels. Big tech was mostly lower; however AAPL was a slight gainer on its report and TSLA fared well. Other underperformers included semis/semicaps , software, precious-metals miners, homebuilders, transports, managed care, hotels, cruise lines, auto suppliers, China tech, nuclear, and quantum computing. High-beta, momentum, small-caps, most-shorted names, and retail-investor favorites lagged as well. Relative outperformers included HPCs, telecom  energy, insurers, food/beverage, grocers, media, apparel and off-priced retail. Treasuries were mixed with the curve steepening; yields down 3-4 bp at the short end. Dollar index up 0.8%, though still lower WTD. Gold finished down 11.4%, its largest single-day drop in decades. Silver settled down 31.4%, its worst session since 1980. Bitcoin futures were down 0.2%, but came off worst levels. WTI crude settled down 0.3% in choppy trading.

SPI down 60 - RBA tomorrow.

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The markets are really moving now – both up and down. The Nasdaq was down 0.7% and the S&P500 was off a minor 0.1%. There were bigger moves in individual stocks. Microsoft fell 10% as the market reacted negatively to its release yesterday after the close. Conversely, Meta rallied 10% as the market took a positive view on how AI can help its advertising cash cow. ServiceNow was belted 9.9%. Apple is currently up 1.7% in the aftermarket after its quarterly showed 16% revenue growth and 19% growth in earnings per share. The iPhone had it best ever quarter. Tim Cook called the demand “unprecedented”. US financials also rallied strongly, alongside copper.

Apple up 2% on results - Call to come

SPI Futures up 33 points. 

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ASX 200 fell 6 points to 8928 as iron ore stocks rallied into the close. The turn in BHP and RIO helped on a bump higher in iron ore. Gold miners were strong but not getting carried away. NST up 3.1% and NEM up 2.6% which considering the bullion price went nuts again, shows maybe some short-term fatigue. Uranium stocks were patchy too given the big move to US$100lb in spot prices, PDN only up 1.4% and DYL leading the charge, up 12.4%. Critical metal and rare earths stocks were walloped on unconfirmed reports that the US is abandoning its idea of a floor price. LYC fell 3.7% and ILU dropped 14.1% as impairments didn’t help there either. Lithium stocks under pressure too, IGO down 5.8% on production report, LTR fell 4.2% on a bond to equity conversion, MIN dropped 3.8%. Oil and gas doing very little. Meanwhile banks were mixed, CBA off 1.1% and the Big Bank Basket down to $266.66 (-0.7%). Financials were mixed too, ZIP fell 3.8% on the strong AUD, given most of its earnings are in USD now. Healthcare stumbled around in casualty, RMD down 1.1% on USD weakness, CSL the same applies off 0.4% and tech got smashed again. WTC down 2.1% and XRO heading that way, off another 3.1%. The All-Tech Index dropped 1.8%. Industrials slid, BXB down 2.6% and QAN off 2.1%. REITs also under pressure. That kind of day.

In corporate news, APX jumped 30.5% as revenue rose to $73.4m. AMP fell 4.6% after some accountancy tweaking. QUB saw Macquarie extend its DD to Feb 15th.  Plenty of quarterlies to keep everyone on their toes. GMD announced some management changes along with production guidance.

Asian markets are mixed, with Japan up 0.4%, HK up 0.3%, China unchanged with Indonesia falling hard again on a GS downgrade.

US Futures firm, Nasdaq up 68, Dow down 42 - Gold hits record.

10-year yields steady at 4.83%

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US markets were braced all day for some important earnings release after the market. Marcus has the initial reactions in the Market Strategy section. It includes Microsoft, Meta, IBM and Tesla. Otherwise, the S&P500 was essentially flat and the Nasdaq up 0.2%. The VIX and bitcoin stayed steady. It’s a calm market considering the Fed meeting (keeping rates on hold), Trump unleashed aggressive rhetoric against Iran and gold/silver kept mooning. That’s not all. Henry said on his podcast yesterday that he expected uranium to hit US$100 per pound. Even he didn’t expect it do it overnight. Uranium stocks rallied strongly in North America as a result, with gold stocks not far behind. I detected some hesitancy in gold stocks earlier in the week. They’ve shrugged it off now! The lithium sector is taking a breather currently, as are US financial and European shares. None of it looks any more than the usual swings of the markets. That should hold the ASX in good stead for now.  

SPI Futures down 4 points. ASX to open flat. 

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ASX 200 started strong but wobbled ahead of CPI and ended down 8 points to 8934 (0.1%) after CPI nudged higher. Now a 70% chance of a rate rise next week. Most sector of the market slid, Banks off slightly, ANZ down 0.5% and the Big Bank Basket unchanged at $268.50. MQG dropped 1.1% with insurers also weaker, QBE down 1.2% and ZIP came undone, off 4.0%. REITs also under pressure with GMG off 1.1% and SGP falling 0.9%. Industrials pretty weak across the board, WES down 0.7%, ALL off 2.8% and COL and WOW slipped. Tech was again smashed with WTC off 3.8% and XRO falling again. The All-Tech Index dropped 2.8%. Healthcare also saw sellers, RMD down 2.1% and CSL down 1.2%.

It was a different story in resources, BHP up 1.7% again, RIO doing well too and gold miners finding buyers again as bullion pushed above $5200. Silver miners also in demand, uranium glowing red hot, no fall out here with PDN up 5.4% and BMN soaring 17.1%. STO and WDS showed a clean pair of heels as crude rose. STO the standout up 3.0%. 

In corporate news, AUB fell 4.7% after its acquisition and capital raise. ASX dipped slightly after raising expense guidance, BOE soared 10% after cutting cost guidance.

In economic news, inflation picked up to 3.8% in December. Blame the Ashes and the Barmy Army. Every economist is now jumping on the rate hike prediction. 70% chance now next week.

Asian markets mixed with Japan down 0.6%, China up 0.7% with Indonesia crashes on MSCI moves, down around 7%.

US Futures firm, Nasdaq up 150, Dow unchanged - Gold hits record.

10-year yields steady at 4.82%

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Another positive session for the US stock market with the S&P 500 trading to a record high of 6988 points. That’s the fifth straight day of gains. All eyes are turning toward the 7000 level to see if it can break sometime soon.  US chip makers rallied, with Nvidia +1.1%, Intel bouncing +3.4% and Micron up a very solid +5.4%. Big tech put in some good numbers too with Apple +1.1% and Amazon +2.6%. Tesla slipped 1% again. Resource stocks keep on keeping on. BHP was +4% in American trade. Uranium spot went over $90 per pound, taking up related shares. NexGen Energy was +3.8% and Cameco +3.9%. Like on the ASX yesterday, North American gold stocks were a little muted relative to the move in bullion. A 2% rise in oil lifted energy firms like Exxon Mobil, +1.5%. European stocks wer generally positive. It’s a global bull run happening.

SPI Futures up 38 points. ASX set to open higher. 

Here in Australia, all eyes will be on the CPI data release today and what it will mean for the RBA’s next move. The Aussie dollar is now 70 cents to the USD, the highest level since 2023. 

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ASX 200 kicked another 82 points higher to 8942 as BHP roared back into #1 spot on the ASX. Up 2.6% today.  Fair to say resources were a little mixed, gold miners tried hard to suck the same ‘Koolaid’ as bullion traders, but failed, with EVN down 0.7% and NEM only up 1.4%. Most other were solid but not spectacular. Lithium and rare earth stocks felt a little pain, LYC down 5.0% and PLS off 2.4%. ILU dropped 4.6% with IPX down 3.8%. Copper stocks fared better as RIO jumped 1.7% and even FMG rose 1.7%. Uranium stocks fell with LOTDB falling the hardest down 7.7%. PDN eased 0.6% lower and BOE dropped 3.7%. WDS and STO pushed ahead on LNG pricing with STO up 2.5% as its first Barossa project cargo left port.

Banks were firm, the Big Bank Basket rose to $268.50 (). MQG had a good day in the sun, up 2.3% and insurers did well too, QBE up 1.4% and SUN rising 0.7%. REITs eased back, industrials mixed, WES rose 2.3% and COL and WOW moved higher. BXB fell 1.0% and tech still patchy at best. XRO down 1.4% and WTC up 1.9% with the All-Tech Index up 0.9%.

In corporate news, DRO fell 6.5% on a quarterly update, KAR slightly higher after production report, AUB in a trading halt with a $400m placement pending on a UK acquisition. On the economic front, Australian business sentiment rebounded ahead of the Reserve Bank meeting, with confidence advancing to 3 points in December.

 Asian markets firmed, Japan up 0.6% China up 0.3% and HK up 1.1%. Dow futures down 44, Nasdaq up 142.

10-year yields steady at 4.84%.

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