Monday 8th September 2025

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The building evidence in jobs-related data pointed to a disappointing non-farm payrolls number for the US, and on Friday we got it, with a small increase in jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. NAB’s Skye Masters says it pushed bond yields lower, but highlights that although unemployment is rising, the rate is edging up very slowly. Still, if we see inflation rising this week against a falling jobs market that’ll sound warning bells. Canada’s unemployment numbers on Friday were worse than the US, with job numbers falling. There’s plenty of politics at play, with Japan and France both looking for new Prime Ministers this week.

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Friday 5th September 2025

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The US recently passed The Genius Act, which entrenches the role of Stablecoin in the US economy. Scott Bessent thinks the requirement for Stablecoin operators to back their issuance 1:1 with US currency safe assets, like government securities, will increase demand for US Treasuries and lower borrowing costs. Is it a genius plan or just wishful thinking? Phil puts that question to Simon French, managing director of Panmure Liberum, the UK’s largest independent investment bank. In a recent column in The Times Simon argued that the UK and other governments and central banks need to embrace the technology or risk even more finance concentrated on US currency and assets.

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Friday 5th September 2025

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It would be a big surprise if we saw strong growth in the US non-farm payrolls numbers out tonight (Australia time). As NAB’s Ken Crompton describes, the Challenger Jobs Survey showed sharp rise sin layoffs, the weekly jobless claims continue to rise, and the number of new jobs halved in the latest ADP report. He tells Phul that the report is unlikely to have any impact on the chance of a cut in the September Fed meeting, but it could influence the number of cuts that follow beyond that this year. Whilst the jobs market appears soft, the ISM Services report showed strength, and equity markets are behaving as though everything is just fine. The S&P hit another new high at the US close, for example.

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Thursday 4th September 2025

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The US job openings (JOLTs) data showed a fall in July (7.2 million down from 7.4 million in June, a number which was also revised down). This has adding to the belief that the US jobs market is getting weaker. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the findings and how it has moved tech stocks higher and driven bond yields lower. He also responds to yesterday’s Australian GDP, which came in stronger than NAB’s forecast, but isn’t expected to change the trajectory for RBA cuts. The US Services ISM will be an important number today; in particular, have new orders bounced back after last month’s sharp fall.

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Wednesday 3rd September 2025

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NAB’s Skye Masters says rising government debt is a global issue, but it’s being felt particularly in the UK, where falling confidence in the government is souring sentiment further. As a consequence, 30 year yields rose to the highest level since 1998. As Phil points out, that’s the year Google was founded, and Apple came out with the iMac. US yields are also higher, in part because of continued concern about rising debt if President Trump has to relinquish his tariffs and trade deals. But that won’t happen, will it? He’ll find a way through. Meanwhile, the first bit of key jobs news tonight in the US, with the release of the JOLTs, job openings, data. 

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Tuesday 2nd September 2025

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It was a quiet session overnight with the US on holiday. Instead, there was a focus on Tianjin in China, where Putin, Xi and Modi all got together to talk about the new world order. Phil points out on today’s podcast that collectively these leaders oversee a third of the world’s population. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins in to discuss the latest Aussie GDP partials (more to come today). We also saw gold hit another new high – a confluence of factors could drive it even higher.

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Monday 1st September 2025

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This could shape up to be quite a busy week, with an expected mix of political and data-driven headlines. But it gets off to a slow start with equity and bond markets closed in the US on Monday for Labour Day. The week ramps up towards the latest non-farm payrolls on Friday, taking in Australia’s Q2 GDP along the way. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it would take a lot for payrolls to divert the Fed away from a September cut. And expect more this week on the legality or otherwise of President Trump’s tariffs.

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Friday 29th August 2025

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Ten years ago Robin Khuda had a vision that data centres needed to be much bigger. Hyper-scaling, as they call it. Back then there was about 400 megawatts of capacity in Australian data centres, and three or four gigawatts across Asia-Pacific & Japan. Today, AirTrunk has two gigawatts portfolio of hyperscale data centres, with big expansion plans across the region. They are attracting big money to fund this expansion, which is responding to the needs of the major tech players and their AI trajectory. Phil talks to Carly Wishart, AirTrunk’s managing director, corporate and international, and Prashant Murthy, managing director capital and strategy. He asks how they move swiftly, secure the necessary funding, stand out from the competition and not run the risk of overbuilding. And what innovative approaches are emerging to power AI responsibly and sustainably?

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Friday 29th August 2025

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The Fed is expected to cut even though the latest GDP numbers show an economy growing – and maybe the PCE numbers today will show inflation is rising. So, is a cut the right thing to do? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Ken Crompton who says, even though September seems bolted on, markets are stepping back on the speed of cuts beyond that. Although that could be determined by how many supporters President Trump parachutes onto the Fed board. A busy day for data lies ahead, including a major dump from Japan and inflation numbers from Europe.

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Thursday 28th August July 2025

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Today’s big news is the 50% tariff slapped on India. Sally Auld says it presents a challenge for India. The tariff is high enough for US importers to look elsewhere for substitute goods. It’ll be welcome news in Europe, though, because the tariff is to stop India buying Russian oil. Europe is, itself, considering secondary tariffs. It’s also fast-tracking an end to many tariffs on US imports, in the hope of bringing down Trump’s tariff on European cars. That’s all interesting stuff but markets are most interested in NVIDIA earnings, which disappointed only in that they didn’t exceed expectations. Still, that seem enough to drag shares down across the chip sector. Phil also asks Sally why Australian inflation came in so much higher than expected yesterday.

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