Oil prices are up around US$100/barrel again as the US Navy blockade on Iranian ports begins. ANZ Research changes its call for the Official Cash Rate in New Zealand, and Singapore’s central bank is expected to tighten today.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner sees the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiking early and hard from July, to avoid having to go higher later.

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Peace talks between Iran and the United States collapse. Donald Trump says the US Navy will blockade the Strait of Hormuz and stop tankers on the high seas that have paid Iran tolls. And US inflation spikes, which pushes consumer confidence down.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Economist Richard Yetsenga assesses how much damage has been done so far to global economic momentum.

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Oil prices fall and stocks rise after Israel agrees to ceasefire talks with Lebanon, improving the chances of a broader Middle East ceasefire. Elsewhere, Kiwis drove less in March and China’s deflation may be over.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk details where and how ANZ Research has lowered its house price forecasts in Australia’s capital cities.

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Oil prices plunged 15% and stocks rose 3% overnight after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. But there is still conflict in the region and only a few ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held interest rates, but lifted its inflation forecasts.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says the oil market is not going to return to its pre-conflict state any time soon, even if the ceasefire holds.

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Markets are on tenterhooks hours ahead of President Trump’s 8pm EST deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Australia’s labour market loosens; The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold rates today.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan looks at how South Korea’s economy is standing up to the effects of the Middle East conflict.

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Trump threatens strikes on Iran’s energy and water infrastructure tomorrow, which is pushing up oil prices and undermining US stocks. US jobs are strong, but wage growth weakens in March - taking pressure off the Fed.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk analyses the most recent housing market data in Australia, and says there are signs of a slowdown.

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Global stocks are firmer this morning and oil prices slipped on hopes for de-escalation in Iran, but the focus is on a Donald Trump speech due at 1pm Sydney/Melbourne time. And manufacturing in Asia remains strong. For now.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari analyses how the Middle East conflict is affecting the global aluminium market.

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Stocks jump on hopes for de-escalation in Iran. RBA minutes show four dissenters weren’t against hiking, just the timing; And New Zealand business confidence slumps in March as fuel prices jumped.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the further impact on oil and the world economy if Red Sea trade becomes disrupted by the Middle East conflict.

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Markets wobbled overnight with conflicting accounts of when the Iran conflict might end. Bond yields fell on hope inflation may not rise too much. And we get data today on Australian lending growth and NZ business confidence.

And then in our deep-dive interview,ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur, analyses the fiscal effects of the fuel subsidies, and how long before they may have to be abandoned.

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The conflict in Iran widens again over the weekend after global stocks and bonds sell off aggressively. Brent crude jumps again, and the US dollar strengthens. And consumer confidence falls in both the United States and New Zealand.

And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell looks at why the Fed is likely to look through the latest energy price shock, even though it was criticized for doing the same thing in 2022, when inflation failed to recede quickly.

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