5 in 5 with ANZ

Oil rises on an escalating conflict in Ukraine. US jobs and business confidence data is mixed. Australian housing affordability worsens again and New Zealand’s Treasury warns growth will be weaker than its May forecast and widen the budget deficit.

In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari explains why ANZ Research thinks gold will continue to attract demand despite recent price drops.

Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks wobble as Ukraine conflict fears escalate. UK inflation is hotter than expected. China’s banks hold lending rates amid a focus on fiscal stimulus, and Bank Indonesia says post-Trump currency moves have affected its ability to cut rates.

In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma looks at the implications of US President-elect Donald Trump’s win for Asian local currency bond yields.

Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stocks are jittery and safe havens in demand this morning after an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine overnight. The RBA’s minutes indicate it may cut earlier than previously expected and Australian consumer confidence is still trending higher.

In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the outlook for Chinese steel production and iron ore prices ahead of looming US tariffs under a Donald Trump Presidency.

Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices rise 3% as the Russia-Ukraine war escalates. US Treasury yields edge up as traders price a December rate cut by the Fed at 50-50. And RBA minutes today are being watched to see how hawkish the rate-setting board continues to be.

In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains how the RBNZ’s more aggressive start to OCR cuts has shifted New Zealand economy’s growth outlook upwards.

Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Trump trade takes a breather. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is less dovish than expected. China’s retail sales surge, leaving it on track for 4.9% GDP growth this year. And was the Trump trade actually about Trump? Or about a very clear election result?

In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the risks of Australia’s gas supply getting redirected into the international market, and what might replace it domestically.

Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US producer price inflation rises a bit, but a rate cut remains on the table. The US dollar nears a two-year high on the ‘'Trump Trade’. Australia’s jobless rate holds but employment growth slows, and there are signs of life in New Zealand’s housing market.

In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at how Australia’s East Coast gas suppliers have dealt with entry into the global market.

Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Bets firm for a December rate cut by the Fed as US disinflation continues. Australian wage growth is lower than expected, but that might not move the RBA. The Yen weakens further as the US dollar continues its surge - the Aussie and Kiwi fall as well.

In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh continues our coverage of the effects of Donald Trump’s election victory on global markets. Chinese authorities moved yesterday to support a weakening Yuan, while foreign investment outflows in Asia have also been picking up pace.

Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks take a breather, while Treasury yields and Bitcoin continue to surge following the US election. Australian consumers and businesses are the most confident since early 2023, and New Zealand’s economic slump looks to have bottomed out.

ANZ Senior Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says China’s authorities look to have held off announcing a larger stimulus package last week to keep their powder dry for whatever a Donald Trump-led United States throws at their economy.

Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Trump trade surge continues: Bitcoin hits a new record high and the US dollar bounced another half-percent overnight. Expectations for another Fed rate cut in December grow more wobbly; and weary ECB policy makers suggest rate cuts could help ward off negative US trade moves.

In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton analyses a surge in jobs in aged care and disabled care, which is lifting female workforce participation.

Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed cuts by 25 basis points as expected, with one more expected next month. The Fed is being cautious as the US economy lands softly. China’s EV exports to Australia surge. New Zealand is wary of how tariffs might affect beef exports.

In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur analyses how Trump’s tariffs might affect economies in Asia, outside of China.

Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/